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Wealth debacle, but a symptom of a wider battle
Sensational revelations about ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema’s fortune made from lucrative municipal construction tenders tend to focus the spotlight on this controversial figure alone. In the process, the real underlying forces of contention are being missed, forces that are busy shaping (and shaking) the country. Malema’s latest dilemma is but a symptom of a far greater process of realignment in a battle for ultimate political and economic control.
The forces in this realignment currently revolve essentially around the following issues: One, the potentially devastating and intensifying battle for control between the left (communists and trade unionists) and the centrists/nationalists in the ANC alliance and the resultant shifting positions of power blocs; two, the new scramble for access to wealth and resources via the state as the new elite seek to replace the exclusive small core of economic beneficiaries of the Thabo Mbeki era; three, the exploitation of a system of patronage (with its powerful political connotations) severely lacking in transparency and controls/rules which allows for rapid wealth accumulation as in the case of Malema; and four, the ideologically-driven moral crusade of the left against the system of patronage and excessive wealth accumulation at the expense of the impoverished masses.
All the power blocs involved in the current contest – ANC Youth League (ANCYL), Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu), SA Communist Party (SACP), ANC, various regional/provincial structures of the ANC, etc. – were initially united in a common quest to remove Mbeki and his core support base and have Jacob Zuma succeed him.
With this objective accomplished, the process, in short and simplified terms, unfolded as follows.
The common binding factor had disappeared and the disparate groups that brought Zuma to power started their scramble for control.
This manifested itself in, for example, the left pressuring Zuma to shift control over economic policy away from the centrist National Planning and Finance ministers (Trevor Manuel and Pravin Gordhan) to the left wing minister in the newly created Economic Development portfolio, Ebrahim Patel.
The centrists/nationalists responded when, for example, the likes of ANC executive committee member and former intelligence boss Billy Masethla, supported by Malema and others, accused the left of attempting to seize control of the ANC in order to establish a socialist order in South Africa.
The left in turn responded by questioning the self-enrichment of senior ANC leaders, politicians and civil servants taking place at the expense of the poor and the workers through a system of patronage. This system of patronage, which is possible in its current form because of a lack of transparency, moral imperatives, clear guidelines and controls, has – as is always the case when such economic patronage and politics meet – become a powerful political instrument, uniting in this case much of the centre of the ANC behind Zuma, and weakening the hold of the left.
This led to calls by Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi and SACP leaders for lifestyle audits of such leaders and officials. This development also manifested itself in further struggles for control of key economic areas such as the battles around the possible appointments of CEOs of key parastatals such as Eskom, Transnet and others. Access to lucrative state tenders is another area of contention.
It also led to clashing demands around the possible nationalisation of key economic assets such as the mines, banks and the Reserve Bank, which have intensified the battle between the left and the ANC centre.
In the process Malema, backed by other centrists/nationalists, has launched attacks on ANC secretary-general (and SACP chairman) Gwede Mantashe, SACP deputy general secretary Jeremy Cronin, and has clashed with Cosatu’s Vavi among others. The highly selective approaches towards the types of nationalisation and potential targets for nationalisation displayed by both the two main antagonistic groups in the debate, should be seen also from the perspective of their ideological and strategic interests.
Meanwhile, the strongly left-wing National Union of Metalworkers of SA (NUMSA) – one of Cosatu’s biggest affiliates – entered the fray with calls for the nationalisation of the wealth of individuals like former businessman turned Human Settlements Minister, Tokyo Sexwale, and others.
The recent revelations around Malema’s wealth would place him also in this firing line. It may be no coincidence that Sexwale drew up a report for the ANC national executive committee critical of the leadership of Mantashe and other SACP leaders at an SACP conference in Limpopo late last year at which Malema and Masethla were booed, causing them to storm out.
It is also no coincidence either that in the week before details of Malema’s fabulous wealth became known, NUMSA through its general secretary Irvin Jim, described Malema as part of a "marauding gang" within the ANC that was causing divisions in the Alliance, while Malema levelled warnings at Cosatu’s Vavi to stop demanding lifestyle audits of senior ANC leaders and officials.
Following Malema’s various statements, Jim was reported to have said: “We sat down and analysed what has been said and we will defend the ANC because we believe that it is not the property of unscrupulous individuals who are only interested in their wealth and tenders”. He added that there was a move to exclude communists and trade unionists from the Alliance.
NUMSA furthermore points out that provincial structures of the ANC are being used for personal financial gain by individuals in the ANC, and that all leadership elections at provincial ANC conferences had been highly contested in the quest for access to government tenders. Jim also attacked Zuma for not protecting Mantashe, just as Malema and Sexwale accused Mantashe of not having protected Malema and others during the infamous booing incident at the SACP conference in Polokwane.
Jim also questioned the sudden need for an NEC report to be written when Malema got booed at a meeting, while there was never any call for such reports when Mbeki, Terror Lekota (former Defence Minister who is now a leader in the Congress of the People) or former Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka were booed (by ANCYL members) at various meetings.
Against this background, another manifestation of the battle for political and economic control within the ANC Alliance has emerged, namely an early succession struggle for key leadership positions in the ANC.
ANC secretary general and SACP leader Mantashe has become a key target of the Malema faction for replacement in this powerful position with a former ANCYL leader and current Deputy Minister of Police, Fikile Mbalula.
Not only is Mbalula Malema’s predecessor and confidante, but he is also close to the leading ANC centrists/nationalists and to Zuma and his inner circle. Others in the sights of this faction for removal from leadership positions in the ANC and government are communists Cronin and Blade Nzimande. The latter is the SACP general secretary and Minister of Higher Education and Training.
Over the weekend, another very large Cosatu affiliate, the SA Democratic Teachers’ Union (Sadtu) endorsed the call for a lifestyle audit of political leaders and officials. In a statement released by Sadtu general secretary, Mugwena Maluleke, the union said: "The Sadtu NEC expressed concern at the growing evidence of a right wing faction at work within the ranks of the liberation movement with the clear intent of destabilising the Tripartite Alliance”.
At first, Zuma tried to maintain a position of neutrality in all of this, seeking to appease all the competing factions that had supported his rise to power.
In this sense, he had been pretty much the glue keeping it all together. However, increasingly, Zuma found himself gravitating more and more to the centrist/nationalist faction, if not by design, then certainly by the way things were unfolding.
Apart from his own inner circle, which traces its roots to his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma's most ardent supporter is Malema. He occupies a position of power in the Alliance and is feared by many (see a previous analysis by us in this regard). Malema also leads one of the (numerically) biggest constituencies in the ANC, namely the youth. The other two biggest constituencies are the workers (as organised by Cosatu) and women as organised by the ANC Women’s League (ANCWL), the latter having been pretty quiet throughout these unfolding struggles.
However, Malema’s ANCYL also draws many of its members from among both the workers and women. This makes him extremely powerful, a factor Zuma would be foolish to ignore.
By definition of Zuma’s own political makeup and background, he also tended to drift closer to the centrists/nationalists and emerging new capitalist class. This has brought him increasingly in conflict with the left over issues such as the allocation of key ministries and other jobs, his failure to shift control of economic policy to Patel’s Economic Development ministry, his poor performance on the promised major job creation programme, and indications that parts of the public enterprises sector may be privatised.
However, it was Zuma’s recent sex life scandal that finally weakened him on all fronts, practically reducing him to something of a bystander in the process, with only his inner circle rallying around him, and then not in a very publicly visible manner either.
But Zuma, nonetheless, still has some allegiances to the left wing – and they to him – emanating from his days as intelligence chief and a senior Umkhonto we Sizwe leader during the armed struggle; his leading involvement in the ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal underground during Operation Vula; and his recent rise to power. This factor, shaky as it may be at present, coupled with the acknowledgement on all sides that his removal at this point or any time soon will open up an extremely messy and potentially destructive succession battle in the Alliance is his saving grace. It guarantees him the position – for a little longer – of being the glue keeping it all together.
Finance Minister Gordhan on the other hand, finds himself in a possibly even more unenviable position. Coming from an ideologically left wing background and having great compassion for the plight of the poor, he understands where the left is coming from. But he was, as a member of the KwaZula-Natal underground during Vula, also close to Zuma and many of Zuma’s current allies.
At the same time, however, his exposure to harsh economic and political realities as head of the SA Revenue Service (SARS) moulded him into an efficient pragmatist not averse to the best capitalist practices, a characteristic he still employs as Finance minister.
It is this pragmatism that allowed him to get full cabinet approval for a Budget presentation that spoke to both sides of the current Alliance divide. He defended Zuma’s misrepresentation of his job creation “successes” on the one hand, while seeking to appease the left with further ambitious job creation programmes. And while he defended the independence of the Reserve Bank and its policies, thus offending the left, he held open the possibility of further debate and supported lifestyle audits, which offends the centrists/nationalists. And so on.
Finally then, it is against this background that Malema this morning blamed the controversy around his wealth on elements in the Alliance who, he says, leaked these stories to the media and are employing tactics similar to those he says former President Mbeki used – the implication being that the information about his wealth was leaked to the media by the left in an attempt to topple him.
At a press conference to “set the record straight”, he said he supported lifestyle audits of those “who accumulate wealth in a manner that cannot be explained”, adding that the focus on his wealth was a plot “in order to satisfy narrow factional” interests. Malema did not explain how he had accumulated his wealth and merely said the ANC paid him a salary higher than R20 000 per month, that he owned only one car, a Mercedes Benz C63, that he had financed his properties worth several million rands through bank loans and that he had resigned from all the companies which according to media reports were awarded more than 20 contracts, worth between R500 000 and R39m between 2007 and 2008.
While Malema has failed to explain how he could afford the car and properties on his salary, and also did not explain his very expensive lifestyle and the fact that he is frequently seen driving other very expensive vehicles, he so far remains within the law. Unless tender irregularities involving him in the mentioned municipal contracts in Limpopo are proven, there is nothing that prohibits him from engaging in such business.
At fault rather is the greater moral decline in the ANC and a patronage system that, due to its political value, lacks proper transparency, moral rules and sound controls.
But for now, the greater battle is not really about that. It is about control of the ANC, a battle of competing ideological and strategic interests, and ultimately about control of the wealth and resources of South Africa.
As said, while Zuma to a degree has become a bystander to his own role in this due to his embarrassing personal life, his role as politically binding factor is not yet over and is also being secured for now by a third faction with its roots in KwaZulu-Natal owing allegiance only to him and the ANC. It is with members of this faction that Zuma has surrounded himself in parts of his government, particularly in the security cluster. From here on, the fight can only worsen.
(This analysis was supplied by Stef Terblanche of Africa International Communications, Business Intelligence Resources, This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it )
