Bok assumptions proved catastrophic

New Zealand began its Tri-Nations campaign with a bang, and the Springboks theirs with a whimper. The Green and Gold imploded badly as the All Blacks raced to an emphatic 32-12 victory in Auckland on Saturday, showcasing their awesome talent and demonstrating why the first rule of communication is so vital.

Before this very first match in the Vodacom Tri-Nations campaign, everyone was hoping that South Africa, who had never won in Auckland since 1937, would make a statement ahead of the 2011 Rugby World Cup. But it was the All Blacks who made the headlines and declared in bold type: "We should be short-listed as one of the favourites for the World Cup."

They should also not be judged on a dysfunctional line-out in 2009, or the faltering performances by their wings and fullback under intense aerial scrutiny from Fourie du Preez and Frans Steyn during its disjointed effort of 2009.

A friend and close colleague routinely says: The first rule of communication is to always state the obvious. For presumption is the mother of all catastrophes.

Stating or doing the obvious thing when you play the All Blacks is to prepare for a humdinger of a match, to stay humble even after three straight victories, to accept that the All Blacks, stung and hurt after their defeats, would come out with real intent and play a high-intensity, high-octane game.

As Joe Frazier, former heavyweight champion of the world, said after outsmarting Muhammad Ali for the world crown: “When I come out, I come out smokin’, man!”

The All Blacks were smoking on Saturday and they benefited from a lacklustre performance by the Boks. Richard Loe, a former All Black prop, said the Boks looked like they felt as if they could simply turn up and win.

Sean Fitzpatrick, a former legendary captain of the 1990s, described the Bok performance as literally tired and listless, particularly John Smit and Pierre Spies, who looked visibly fatigued.

This lethargic display by the Springboks raised questions about their preparation and whether they would not have been better off arriving earlier in New Zealand.

The South African team doctor Craig Roberts admitted that flying east was the toughest in terms of jet lag and that the Boks were hindered by having to sit around all day on Saturday before finally playing at 19h35. Bok coach Peter de Villiers refused to use the preparations as an excuse for the flat performance.

But reports that the Boks were allowed to sleep until lunch time each day to shake off the aftereffects of jet lag has had members of the South African media referring to the performance as “The Boks in la-la land”.

De Villiers assumed many things before this Test. He assumed that because of the great performances by the Stormers and the Bulls during the Super 14 campaign, the Boks would be superior to New Zealand.

He further assumed that Jean de Villiers would be equally classy and successful at right wing as in his preferred inside-centre position.

He assumed that the All Blacks would implode under the structured Bok approach. Similarly did he assume that the Bok pack would hold sway in the scrums, line-outs and rucks and mauls.

De Villiers also assumed that his remarks about the New Zealand coach Graham Henry as being a "big mouth", and of New Zealand rugby becoming stale and falling behind, would not have been motivating factors in the Kiwi dressing room.

He was proved wrong on all these assumptions.

He even further assumed that Bakkies Botha, who had become a liability to the Bok’s cause with his bouts of white-line fever (he has received five bans, sidelining him for a total of 26 weeks over the past seven years), would simply recover his focus without outside help.

De Villiers was wrong again.

How about a few anger management classes? Botha, with his head-butt on Jimmy Cowan and his yellow card offence early in the game, effectively sealed South Africa's fate.

Or how about simply telling Botha that another ban would effectively end his career for South Africa?

In 1984, John McEnroe, after several fallouts with officialdom, was invited to the All England Club by Basil Hutchins, then its chairperson. Hutchins told him: Traditionally, you have three warnings before disqualifying a player. We will give you only one. One wrong step, and you are out of here.

McEnroe never put a foot wrong thereafter, and won the final against Jimmy Connors in one of the most devastating displays of grass-court tennis ever seen.

Perhaps Botha should be whisked away to SW19 and appear in front of the All England Club for a disciplinary hearing. He needs to mend his ways because a repeat of this performance would see a brilliant rugby career end prematurely.

The All Blacks were superb on Saturday and have stretched their unbeaten run in Auckland to 22 matches. They were extremely motivated, thanks partially to motor-mouth De Villiers, who rarely guards his tongue and simply shoots from the hip with a style reminiscent of John Wayne or Julius Malema at their outrageous best.

It is great for media quotes, but not so smart when you are in a Bok jersey and ready to be on the receiving end of an extremely motivated opposition baying for your blood. "Gracious in defeat and humble in victory" is an adage that South Africa should learn.

Smit was gracious and very honest in defeat. Unfortunately, De Villiers is yet to learn humility while basking in the sunshine during the victory parade. It is no use offering back-handed compliments to Henry or belittling the New Zealand rugby hierarchy while on a fact-finding mission to their shores just a few weeks prior to the Tri-Nations campaign.

Ultimately, though, South Africa was soundly beaten simply because it assumed superiority and accepted beforehand that it would overwhelm the All Black forwards and unsettle the backs with its aerial assaults.

Again, South Africa bluntly ignored rule one of communication: "Assumption is the mother of all catastrophe".

Perhaps the Boks should rather assume that the All Blacks would be at their ferocious best in Wellington on Saturday again and humbly prepare to play a blinder. To assume anything less would be another catastrophe.

The injured Jannie du Plessis and the banned Botha would be out of action on Saturday, and it seems as if Danie Rossouw and CJ van der Linde may replace them. But the greatest replacement required is the flat-footed, complacent and self-assured body language of the Springboks.

If they enter the match with more common purpose, an industrious approach and high intensity, they may still rescue some pride for the South African rugby nation in Wellington.