Odds against Bafana – bookies

Spain will win the 2010 Fifa Soccer World Cup, beating Brazil in the final, if the bookmakers are to be believed. And Bafana Bafana will be the first host team in the history of the World Cup not to proceed beyond the first round. But history tells us that the bookies do not always get it right.

Bafana are rank outsiders, at 6/1, to win the group; and at 16/10, the side believed least likely to go through, according to the Times.

If you are determined to bet on Carlos Alberto Parreira's unfancied warriors, they are the 12-10 favourites to finish bottom of the group.

Mexico (7-2 to win the group and 8-10 to qualify) has played well, but it may be falling into a fatal habit of losing.

There will be massive hometown support for Bafana Bafana when these two teams meet in the opening match at Soccer City on Friday at 16h00.

France is the even-money favourite to win the group (3-10 to qualify), but it is a troubled bunch.

Thierry Henry, France's star, is a shadow of the player who once terrorised defences; and Raymond Domenech is among his countrymen the most unpopular coach ever to steer Les Bleus, according to the Times.

There may not be too much support in the Green Point Stadium when France runs out against Uruquay on Friday evening (starting time 20h30).

That is due to the animosity caused by Henry’s handball against the Republic of Ireland which assisted the French team in qualifying for the World Cup.

Uruguay's star is the former Manchester United striker Diego Forlán, who now turns out for Atlético Madrid. The pinup boy will, however, be taking on the one Bafana department – defence – that has done well in the preparation phases.

Uruguay is 15-4 to win the group and 1-1 to qualify.

Lisa Haines, co-owner of South African bookmaker SportsBet, said that Spain, at 7/2, was the betting favourite, followed by Brazil, Argentina and England.

South Africans felt that Ivory Coast would finish highest among the six African teams, with Bafana only fourth.

“So far, South Africans are backing the Brazilian striker [Luis] Fabiano to be top scorer,” she told the Sunday Times.

Some South Africans were betting a few hundred on Bafana Bafana winning, despite the long odds of 125/1 on their being tournament winners.

Most people have dismissed Germany in 2010, but if one looks at its stats, it is a formidable team. Its worst performance in 20 years at a World Cup is going out in the quarterfinal.

Why is Spain such a favourite? Why is Brazil rated the second favourite? And why can South Africa upset the odds against Mexico?

Five of Vicente del Bosque’s European champions would be certain picks for a World XI, according to the Sunday Times – Fernando Torres, Xavi Hernández, Andrés Iniesta, David Villa and Iker Casillas.

Spain’s ability to hog the ball, as though playing 10-year olds, reported the Sunday Times, makes it the narrow favourite ahead of Brazil.

But Barcelona failed to shatter a Brazil-dominated Inter Milan defence in the UEFA Champions League.

Brazil has found a leftback in Olympique Lyon’s Michel Bastos and the coach, Dunga, brings an even stronger force to South Africa than the team which won the Confederations Cup in 2009 on South African soil.

Why could South Africa upset Mexico?

Beating the highly rated Denmark 1-0 in an emotionally charged final warm-up game in front of a packed Super Stadium in Atteridgeville on Saturday, was the World Cup icebreaker, Bafana's assistant coach Pitso Mosimane told Sapa.

Denmark qualified for the World Cup, and is the 36rd ranked team in the world.

Mosimane said: "The Danes are a quality side full of top class professionals who play in the top European league. The bottom line is that Denmark also used this game to prepare for their opening World Cup match and did not come to the Super Stadium to lose.

"It was a hard and searching examination of our ability and qualities, and we passed this test.”

Bafana have now gone 12 matches unbeaten under coach Carlos Alberto Parreira, amazingly with the same squad of players as those who floundered last year under Joel Santana.

The South African Football Association was forced to step in and axe the unpopular Santana, who proved to be out of his depth at this level, reported Sapa.

Mosimane explained the change in Bafana: “We have not changed the players. There was no need to.

“But what we have done, is work on the players' physical and mental strengths and both have improved a thousand percent over the past five months of camps we have had for the players.

"We have given the players back their self-belief and confidence. You cannot play professional soccer if you are not 100 percent fit. With that in mind, our priority in the camps [in Durban, Brazil and Germany] was to work on their fitness levels,” he added.

Bafana have not suffered any muscle, groin or hamstring injuries under Parreira and fitness coach Francisco Gonzalez, and that again backs up Mosimane's case that his players are in top physical condition.

The fact that Parreira dropped unfit and overweight striker Benni McCarthy from his squad, and that he has said Fulham holding midfielder Kagisho Dikgacoi's place in the starting line-up against Mexico is in question, bears testimony to the coach's determination to field a fully fit side in the World Cup.

Mosimane said that while beating Denmark, Colombia and drawing 1-1 with Bulgaria in the past two weeks has helped build the squad, he stated that Mexico was a new ball game for Bafana.

“They are an incredible team. I struggle to work out their system, as they are so flexible. I watched them lose to England and Holland and on both occasions, they did not deserve to lose.

"And then last Thursday, they outplayed world champions Italy. Forget that they only won 2-1 [in Brussels], it could have been 5-1 – that is how much the Mexicans dominated,” he told Sapa.

Mexico displayed a fast and entertaining game in dismantling an unfit-looking Italian team in Brussels last week. The Italians spent 10 days training in the mountains before that match, and many of the players were lethargic.

The three greatest shortcoming of the South African team have been the lack of continuity in building up to full-scale attack; the shortage of high-class strikers; and the fear that their discipline may be found wanting in the pressure cooker of a World Cup.

Will the discipline of its defenders hold up against the fast and furious pace of the physical Mexicans?

Many South African pundits are concerned about the robust nature of Aaron Mokoena’s tackles, warning that the highly rated but aggressive national captain is a yellow card waiting to happen.

Bafana’s discipline and their ability to give their strikers room to execute accurately could be keys to upsetting the Mexicans – and the bookmakers.

Katlego Mphela is the leading goal-scorer and has scored his sixth goal in the last five warm-up games.

He told Sapa: “The Mexicans like to attack and that suits us. That means they have gaps behind their defence, which I aim to capitalise on. I reckon I have the ability to sneak behind their defence and cause problems.”

If South Africa upsets the odds in front of a crowd of 90 000 at Soccer City, it will also upset the punters.

According to the Sunday Times, the World Cup will be the greatest gambling event in history. Global Betting and Gaming Consultant in London projected in a report last week that £3.35 billion would be spent on legal betting on the Soccer World Cup’s 64 matches.

Experts think that a similar amount will be spent on illegal betting, particularly in Southeast Asia.

South Africans lost R617 million in gambling on sport in 2009 and it is projected they will blow R873m on unwise bets by 2012, prompting the British Ladbrokes gambling company to acquire a South African licence in 2010.

Lorien Pilling, reasearch head of Global Betting, said the World Cup was a perfect storm of gambling, which would take it at least 15% higher than the 2006 Soccer World Cup.