Has Bafana Bafana forgotten how to lose yet?

“Believe me, we are going to cause surprises at the World Cup,” has been the mantra of Carlos Alberto Parreira, coach of Bafana Bafana, but not many South African fans are as optimistic. However, Bafana Bafana did silence a few doubters with a five-star performance to draw against the 39th world-ranked Bulgaria in a friendly international played at Orlando Stadium on Monday night.

The new-look Bafana team has now gone nine matches unbeaten under Brazilian head coach Parreira, who took charge of the ailing side last November.

Bafana played with passion, pride and commitment and with a bit of luck could easily have beaten its more fancied opponent, reported Sapa.

Bafana held the upper hand for most of a fast-flowing opening half, watched by an enthusiastic, vuvuzela-blowing, near-capacity crowd of 38 000 who created an intimidating and lively atmosphere throughout the 90 minutes.

The home side took the initiative against the Eastern Europeans, who looked set to sit back and soak up the pressure. The Bulgarians were physically bigger and stronger than Bafana, but it was the home side who finished stronger.

Bafana striker Katlego Mphela tested the shaky-looking Bulgarian keeper Nikolay Mihaylov with a rasping free kick in the 11th minute, which the Bulgarian number-one was able to turn for a corner.

Two minutes later, Mihaylov struggled with a well-directed free kick from live wire winger Siphiwe Tshabalala, which the goalie somehow was able to scramble to safety after parrying the Bafana winger's fierce shot.

Then Bafana captain Teko Modise tried his luck and again Mihaylov was able to block the Orlando Pirates playmaker's shot in the 16th minute.

This was one of Modise's best matches for his country. He led by example and controlled the midfield with authority.

So well had Modise played and led the side, that he kept the captain's armband when regular skipper Aaron Mokoena replaced Siyabonga Sangweni at halftime.

However, Modise was surprisingly replaced in the 69th minute by striker Bernard Parker, who slotted into Modise's midfield role.

Bafana was rewarded for its pressure when 20-year-old Sangweni headed home Tshabalala's free kick in the 20th minute, which had the fans bouncing with joy.

However, Bafana paid for its overconfidence and poor defending when Parma striker Valeri Bojinov got behind the home defence and beat goalkeeper Itumeleng from close range to make it 1-1 in the 31st minute.

In the meantime, the intelligence network of the South African team has also been hard at work, spying on its group opponents Mexico, Uruguay and France.

Mexico takes on Holland on Wednesday, Gambia on 30 May and Italy four days later, before its opening match against South Africa on 11 June. France plays Costa Rica, Tunisia and China; and Uruguay meets Israel.

“The spies, who are Parreira’s connections, will follow the matches and provide us with technical analyses,” team manager Dennis Mumble told the Sunday Times.

Parreira praised his troops for their commitment in the build-up to the Bulgarian match: “This is the best bunch of players I have ever had to work with, including Brazil.

“These guys are motivated, hard working, committed and are determined to do well. Believe me, we are going to cause surprises at the World Cup,” he said.

An international financial analyst, Goldman Sachs, has had a light-hearted stab at who will win the World Cup, by calculating “objective probabilities” for the likely winner of the World Cup.

It combined official Fifa rankings and various bookmakers’ odds “to create a probability model that also penalises teams according to how tough their schedule is on average.” (Source: Sunday Times, 23 May 2010).

Goldman Sachs predicts that Brazil will win it. Its model of predictability for Brazil as a winner is 13.76%, with Spain installed as second favourite, followed by Germany and England.

The analysts also predicted that Brazil would win it in 2006. Italy won it, beating France in a pulsating final.

If you are wondering whether Goldman Sachs is any good at predicting winners, note that it did not expect Brazil to reach the semifinal, in a tournament that it went on to win, reported the Sunday Times.

Bookmakers are expecting Spain to win at odds of 4/1, while Brazil is at 9/2 and England 11/2.

Spain has never won the World Cup before, while England managed it once, in 1966.

On the list of Goldman Sachs, South Africa is rated as the 25th favourite, with a model probability of 0.68%.

Parreira is undeterred, saying: “Do not write off my team. I accept we are underdogs in a difficult group. I am not asking them to win all three group matches, but I have told the players to perform well – and the results will come.”

If there is one aspect about which many South African football lovers, fans and government officials might be worried, it would be the long-term commercial sustainability of the World Cup host stadiums.

"In the South African case, all the stadiums were either renovated or constructed by the government. That means that the commercial consideration was never primary," said economist Stan du Plessis of Stellenbosch University on News24.

"Some of these stadiums are simply not going to be in a position to cover their running costs. In that sense, they will be loss making."

South Africa has poured R20 billion, multiples of the original estimates, into 10 stadiums in nine cities to showcase Africa's first World Cup.

White elephant fears often dog major sporting events, with Athens 2004 Olympics facilities said to be rusting away amid early rumbles about London 2012.

In South Africa's smaller towns such as Nelspruit and Polokwane, and distant cities such as Port Elizabeth, local officials are already wondering how to keep their new world-class stadiums running.

Port Elizabeth's R2-billion, 46 000-seater hopes to lure a top football or rugby team to offset its annual running costs of R18 million.

"I don't think you can ever get the money back on the stadium," Stephan Pretorius, chief executive of the stadium's private management firm, told AFP.

"The stadium is built really for the community. The idea would be that we make the stadium as successful as possible. People here are very hungry for sport and they are very hungry for events and concerts," he added.

The building boom shielded South Africa from the global recession, and the tournament is expected to boost the economy by 0.5% this year.

But concerns about the stadiums themselves extend even to Cape Town, the priciest pitch at R4.5bn, in Fifa's preferred location on prime property amid premier tourist sites. (Source: www.news24.com).

A developing country such as South Africa did not need new mega stadiums, argues Andrew Jennings, author of Foul! The Secret World of FIFA: Bribes, Vote-Rigging and Ticket Scandals.

"Who is going to pay the bill? South Africa," he told AFP. "It is a saga of greed from Fifa; they don't care about South Africa.

"There has been a shameless exploitation of South Africans. They have been left with white elephants, it is now for taxpayers to pay the bill," he added.

For Germany's 2006 World Cup, clubs oversaw much of the construction, but only three 2010 stadiums have home teams to help ensure future success.

Durban city manager Mike Sutcliffe has called for an urgent post-tournament look at sustainability, saying all host cities face "huge funding issues".

"If I'm battling in a big city, I'd hate to know what my colleagues are doing in Polokwane and Mbombela (Nelspruit)," he recently told lawmakers.

Polokwane in undeveloped northern Limpopo – host to a R1.3-billion stadium with annual bills of up to R17m – has already turned to the Treasury for more cash.

"At the moment, we'll need that type of funding to let our programmes run through effectively. We need it now. Unfortunately, we can't wait until the end of the World Cup," the city's 2010 director Ndavhe Ramakuelue told AFP.

Leadership Intelligence Bulletin has learnt that four vital factors would secure commercial sustainability for the host stadiums. Firstly, they will have to secure an anchor sporting host or major sporting team, preferably soccer or rugby, which can host 12 or more major games per annum.

Secondly, they will have to be able to accommodate at least 25 minor, medium-sized and major events, such as pop concerts or religious gatherings or expos, per year.

Thirdly, they will not be able to survive if they are not able to commercialise the stadium and its immediate surroundings, but for that to occur, an excellent relationship with the local ratepayers' association would be vital.

If there is animosity between them and the ratepayers' association, and no great partnerships are forged with the relevant local stakeholders, they would possibly become the white elephants that prophets of doom have spoken about.

And finally, they would require the goodwill and support of the Treasury in times of financial turmoil and economic recessions.

According to Du Plessis, only Durban and Johannesburg's Soccer City have promising chances in terms of long-term sustainability, though he stops short at dishing out white-elephant labels.

"These stadiums are actually built for something very specific. They will host a great World Cup. So in that respect, they are not a white elephant," he told AFP.

But "a number of them will simply not be viable in the long run," he added. (Additional source:www.news24.com)