If only history were player number 23...

If records and statistics were conclusive, the poor Bulls will be slaughtered by the Crusaders in one Super 14 semifinal on Saturday. If history were a player on the field, there should be no doubt that in the other semifinal, the Stormers should beat the Waratahs and Soweto will not be seeing its first Super 14 final this year as the Crusaders travel south to Newlands.

The Crusaders have won more Super titles than any other team – seven – and they feature two of the most celebrated players in the world in Dan Carter and Richie McCaw.

McCaw was crowned International Rugby’s Player of the Year in 2006 and in 2009. This honour was bestowed on the gifted Carter in 2005.

The Crusaders considered themselves unlucky to lose to the Bulls by virtue of a slightly controversial Francois Hougaard try two weeks ago.

The Christchurch team was in irresistible form against the Brumbies, and its fluency and intensity had the Brumbies in sixes and sevens throughout.

Some pundits believe the Bulls may have erred by only fielding their C team against the Stormers and resting their frontline players. They may lack momentum, which will be to the advantage of the Crusaders.

The Crusaders boast some of the best players in the Super 14 competition with Zac Guildford, Kieran Read, McCaw, Carter, Sam Whitelock and Ben Franks in their midst.

Their greatest advantage is their ability to unlock defensive patterns through continuity and sustained pressure, recycling possession through eight, nine or 10 phases.

The Bulls have been hesitant defensively on a number of occasions and leaked several tries out wide in their previous encounter at Loftus. Jacques-Louis Potgieter looked all at sea during that match at outside centre, but the Bulls will probably know what is coming and employ a drift defensive system.

The one ominous warning for the Crusaders is that the Bulls have never really played to their full potential during this season, yet have cruised to the top of the table. On the attack, they have scored almost at will, but they have also looked tentative and uncommittedly defensive at times.

The Crusaders were hammered by a superb Stormers team three weeks ago, and their tight five lack a mongrel attitude and pure class. The Bulls may like to exploit that factor.

The Waratahs will be brimming with confidence after their superb performance against the Hurricanes last week, and would love to build on their appearances in a Super final in 2005 and 2008.

Yet, of the last 28 semifinals in Super rugby history played, the home team has won 24 of these encounters. The Waratahs have not travelled that well lately, and won three of their seven matches while playing away from home.

The Stormers crushed them 27-6 at Newlands in the second-round match of the 2010 Super 14 campaign.

Since then, the Waratahs have become a better attacking unit, with Kurtley Beale adding spark at fullback. In lock Dean Mumm and hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau, they have superb forwards, while Lachlan Turner on the wing is a balanced runner and one of their best attacking weapons.

Allister Coetzee, coach of the Stormers, said during the week: “The most important thing is for our players to pitch up physically. You have to go out and impose yourself and pitch up with that physical intensity. We need a solid team performance this week.

“This is not a semifinal where we need to hold something back for the final: our attitude is that it’s a final every week.”

The Bulls and the Stormers will be under the spotlight during the semifinals. Several of their players would be scrutinised by the national selection committee.

If they reach the final, they will not feature in the first international of the season – against Wales – but Peter de Villiers, the Bok coach, plans to field his best possible Springbok team for the match against France the following Saturday (12 June) at Newlands.

France is the Six Nation champion and a team starring several forwards of world class. South Africa was in reverse gear during their previous encounter. This match will possibly be a preview of a World Cup semifinal. Will the Springboks be up for it?

Not that the Stormers or Bulls will be thinking too much about the Green and Gold. They will be dreaming about silverware.

Both matches will probably be decided by game plans and not necessarily one moment of brilliance. The high-octane running rugby of the Bulls, particularly after the hard yards have been done by the forwards, as well as the fluency and continuity of the Stormers, will possibly be enough to account for the Waratahs and the Crusaders.

But the Stormers will do themselves a favour by watching a video of their 2000 semifinal match against the Highlanders when they did not pitch up for the match and paid the price.

They similarly failed to pitch up for the match against the Reds and the Sharks, and were soundly beaten.

The difference between the Bulls and the Stormers during the past season was that the Bulls played between 65% and 80% on almost every occasion. When the Stormers ‘turned up’, they produced a sterling 90% display. But when they sleepwalked through a match and were flatfooted, as in their performance against the Sharks, they produced a 45%.

The ultimate questions are: Will the Stormers turn up, as Coetzee has encouraged them to do; and will the 80% produced by the Bulls be sufficient to beat the resurgent Crusaders?