Is the dream coming to an end?

Is the great European experiment of establishing an integrated power as a global economic, political and strategic player on the world stage about to fail and will the dream of a Greater Europe remain just a dream? What are the implications for international power relations as mounting evidence seems to indicate that the answer to these two questions is veering towards the affirmative?

An undated article on the website globalchange.com, predating the global financial crisis and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, stated that: “Major challenges to the future of Europe lie ahead. If the great experiment succeeds, it will create an economic, political and military force to pose real challenges to the United States, with its enlargement to 25 countries and a population approaching 500 million. Expansion will add 23% to the EU’s land area and bring in 75 million additional citizens, with a combined economy of $9.3 trillion, approaching that of the US.”

After analysing some of those challenges, including the cost of integration, economic and lifestyle disparities between old and new member states, potential tensions between union and national interests and cultural diversities, the article also stated: “If the EU continues as planned, a Greater Europe will rebalance unequal power struggles on the world stage, currently dominated by America even though America is consistently out-voted on many issues. But if the European experiment fails, it will disintegrate eventually into conflict and chaos.”

Story of the latest evidence

Developments both internationally and internally for Europe have dramatically changed during the final years of this decade.

On the macro global scene the economic dominance of the United States is clearly on the decline as it is being challenged on that front by China, with whom the dangers of a trade war seem to growing by the day.

Even the US military dominance is not something that can be taken for granted anymore while alternative power blocks, represented by countries such as Russia, Turkey (seemingly not so keen to be absorbed into the EU anymore), Brazil, India, China and even South Africa, are increasingly becoming more prominent.

Under the pressure of domestic national interest there are also signs from time to time of great unease with the US tendency to expand the reach of its own domestic legislative processes as a bully tactic when it does not get its way in international forums, like happened earlier this year with the introduction of limited UN sanctions against Iran.

In arguing the challenge of the cost of European expansion and integration the Global Change article stated: “Anyone following the decline of Germany’s economy cannot fail to recognise the immense investment of resources by the old West Germany into the East for little economic return.”

In August this year The New York Times under the heading “Defying Others, Germany Finds Economic Success,” wrote: “Germany has sparred with its European partners over how to respond to the financial crisis, argued with the United States over the benefits of stimulus versus austerity, and defiantly pursued its own vision of how to keep its economy strong.”

There are also indications in that article (and many other reports and observations by commentators) of how fragile some of the internal European relationships have become in recent times, especially under the pressures of a deteriorated economic and fiscal environment. The New York Times also reports that “some critics in Europe say that confidence (in Germany) veered toward hubris in the contentious debate this year over shoring up the Greek government and restoring confidence in the troubled euro. In particular, the venomous contempt in the German news media directed at Greece raised significant concerns among allies that a more assertive Germany had emerged, said Thomas Klau, an expert on European integration at the European Council of Foreign Relations.

“That was like a wake-up call to the rest of Europe that something had changed in Germany, Mr. Klau said.

“In the process, the relationship between France and Germany has become fraught and mistrustful, calling into question the future of the project of European integration.”

In March of this year Der Spiegel wrote: “Angela Merkel has ruffled the feathers of her European partners with her uncompromising response to the Greek debt crisis. Is the chancellor abandoning the post-war German policy of giving European unity precedence over domestic concerns and public opinion?”

France in a spot

In the meantime France’s relationship with many of its European partners and with the Brussels-based European Commission has also become strained during recent weeks as, already famous for its sensitivities over its language and own culture, it seems to becoming more and more inward-looking.

In the latest incident France drew strong condemnation for its expulsion of Roma gypsies. The opening day of a summit last week, called by EU president Herman van Rompuy to discuss how the bloc communicates and what its strategic goals are with key countries like the US and China, was dominated by the French action even though it was not on the official agenda.

The EU’s Justice Commissioner, Viviane Reding, compared the expulsion of the Roma to Nazi interment of thousands of gypsies during World War II.

“This is a situation (removing people just because they belong to a certain ethnic minority) I thought Europe would not have to witness again after the Second World War,” she said.

She later expressed regret over her “outburst,” after angry French reaction claiming it was aimed at fighting crime and illegal immigration and aftercriticism by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

But the overall message in a Europe, already uneasy about the French and Belgian ban on Islamic face-covering veils, is clear: Europe is finding it increasingly difficult to deal with its diversity. The Global Change article also alluded to this problem, stating: “Face the facts: ethnic cleansing is a daily reality in Europe – even in the UK.”

In the meantime the EU has kept open the possibility of taking France to court over its expulsion of the Roma gypsies.

Military force

There is also an increasing likelihood that austerity measures in the wake of the debt crisis would see Europe and especially Britain decline as a military presence on the global stage.

The American-led interventions in both Iraq and Afghanistan have already shown big disparities in the approaches between different European states in particular and between Europe in general and Britain.

The strains  already put on the functioning of NATO, are likely to be increased in the not-to-distant future in the approach to Iran, where there are diverging national interests at stake.

The first signs of the impact that the changed and changing economic realities will have on military firepower come from Britain. This is highlighted in an article last week on the openDemocracy which takes a look at “the severe cuts facing Britain’s armed forces.”

It comes to the conclusion that “major cuts in Britain’s armed forces, amid the effort to maintain around 10 000 troops in Afghanistan, will explode the pretence that Britain can play at being a mini-superpower. The need for a fundamental rethink will become unavoidable. Therein lies the opportunity for a proper, realistic assessment of the challenges that face the country – with sustainable security at its heart.”

As the last few years have illustrated, in the affairs of men and countries things can change dramatically over a very short period of time, but the evidence for now would seem to indicate that the dream of a Greater Europe is at least going on hold.