High stakes at national general council

In a week’s time the African National Congress (ANC) holds its all-important national general council (NGC) in Durban – a mid-term policy-making congress that, although not elective, can shape the future of leaders and groupings inside the governing alliance. A number of contentious policy and leadership issues will be at stake when the meeting takes place from 20-24 September.

Three scenarios can be identified as possible outcomes of the Durban meeting:

• A paper-over-the-cracks exercise of professed unity:
• An uneasy compromise that would see deferred battles in the future; or
• A blood-on-the-floor battle with some casualties at leadership level.

The conference has been preceded by one of the more volatile periods in the life of the ruling tripartite alliance between the ANC, the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the SA Communist Party as well as between the ANC and its obnoxious junior wing, the ANC Youth League (ANCYL).

The period has been marked by unprecedented and sometimes scathing attacks by the leaders of the various organisations on each other.

In addition on the policy level the various organisations are pushing for positions that are not only often highly controversial, but are causing further internal divisions and ructions.

Vulnerable leadership

President Jacob Zuma and his lieutenant in the ANC, secretary general Gwede Mantashe, seem to be particularly vulnerable. Zuma has come under attack on issues ranging from not providing leadership to being too old to lead from the two organisations that put him in power, the youth league on the right, and Cosatu on the left.

In fact the heat got so bad that late last week Zuma made an impassioned plea for unity and an end to the public attacks on leaders.

And that is what might just happen. The alliance may use the occasion to reach a truce, close ranks and present a unified face to the world with Zuma emerging seemingly in a strong position with what will appear to be wide backing. They have done it before, only for the cracks to reappear again later.

This scenario of professed unity is one option and it is one towards which Zuma has already been working, while meetings between Cosatu and the ANC and between Cosatu and the SACP have already been held to try to iron out major differences before the NGC.

The second option is one of an uneasy compromise being reached around some of the issues, while others are put on hold for further “consultation”.

In this scenario Zuma’s mandate is extended for the rest of his term, but he is given notice that he will be closely watched and a second term as president will have to be earned.

The third possibility is a scenario where there will be blood on the floor. Policy conflicts will not be resolved and leaders will be at each other’s throats.

The ANCYL and its president, Julius Malema, will make a play to highjack the senior ANC, unleashing strong counter-moves from the SACP, Cosatu, the ANC right wing and the latter’s old guard;  Cosatu and its general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi will attack both Zuma and the youth league; while the SACP will try to use the confusion to strengthen its own parasitical position in the ANC and keep it all together as its only route to more power and the realisation of a socialist agenda.

Split at NGC unlikely

That a split will occur at the NGC is highly unlikely, despite Cosatu’s threats to withhold some or all of its support for the ANC in next year’s local government elections.

It has been the trend in many African countries, post-liberation --including Zimbabwe and Zambia ­– for the emerging ruling party and its one-time labour ally to part ways. It is, however, not likely in South Africa ... at least not yet.

Instead there is likely to be an intensified bid by the left-wing organisations and the right wing/youth league to contest the ANC from within.

The left would attempt to shift the centre of power away from the ANC and into the alliance.

Unless major compromises are reached, Zuma will not be able to survive by maintaining neutrality. He will be forced to choose between the left and the youth league.

The run-up to the NGC has seen youth league president Malema call for the ANC leadership to be replaced by a more youthful one, with direct references to President Zuma.

Zuma has also come under attack from the ANCYL over his personal life. Last week he was attacked by Malema for not being “a disciplined ANC member” for denying that nationalisation of the mines was ANC policy. Malema has also threatened not to support Zuma in the future.

Malema-punishment

Malema turned on Zuma after being disciplined for “undermining the president”. However he has not complied with any of the punishment imposed by the disciplinary committee and is now in breach of the conditions of a suspended sentence.

Instead he has upped the stake in challenging Zuma and the ANC. The youth league now also wants to push through controversial policy positions on not only the nationalisation of mines but also on the expropriation of farm lands.

In addition the ANCYL seeks autonomy from its parent body and wants the senior ANC to overturn the entire result of Malema’s disciplinary hearing.

Zuma and the senior ANC leaders will have the unenviable task of having to call Zuma’s junior counterpart to order, while at the same time trying to keep the ANCYL itself on board, most probably by allowing robust debate on the ANCYL’s controversial nationalisation proposals.

Zuma will have little else than  his legendary charm to rely on when trying to win this one. But the ANCYL itself is far from unified and some of its own dirty linen may be further exposed at the NGC.

SACP’s role

The SACP will be engaging the ANCYL in a dispute over the modalities of nationalisation.

The SACP not only sees the ANCYL as an undisciplined, troublesome junior entity, but also as part of the allegedly corrupt, self-enriching right wing accused of seeking to gain control over state resources for personal gain. In this it will be supported by Cosatu, which has accused the ANC of allowing the creation of a “predator state.”

But there is also bad blood between Cosatu and the SACP, with Cosatu having called for senior SACP leaders such as  its general secretary Blade Nzimande to resign their positions as their jobs in government are rendering them useless as party leaders. Cosatu’s Vavi has also accused the SACP of not supporting labour during the recent public-sector strike and not being visible enough in its role as vanguard party of the workers.

More dividing lines

Meanwhile Mantashe has attacked Malema’s nationalisation proposals as being “based on  ideological emotional feeling.” Deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe blamed labour’s inflexibility for costing South Africa an unnecessary loss of jobs during the recent recession.

Mantashe -- apart from his ANC position he is a current SACP leader and former trade unionist  -- also attacked Cosatu for threatening to withhold support for the ANC in the local government elections.

The ANCYL in turn  -- apart from turning the screws on Zuma -- wants to remove Mantashe and replace him with former youth league leader and current Deputy Minister of Police Fikile Mbalula.

Cosatu has revealed it has concluded a damning evaluation of Zuma and his ANC leadership.

The dividing lines run everywhere and they run wide, creating serious instability in the overall political arena and in government.

Other agenda items

Against this background the ANC will nonetheless seek to use the occasion to further consolidate its drive to centralise and monopolise political power.

Key targets within this process are the media, judiciary and the provinces – three of the cornerstones of the country’s much-hailed constitution that are under attack.

Among the issues that will be hotly debated at the NGC, some of which may lead to further action or be adopted as official policy for implementation by the government, are the following:

• Leadership renewal, discipline and the organisational culture of the ANC;
• Restoring discipline in the ANC, renewing and building the organisation and fighting corruption in its ranks;
• Transforming the criminal justice system mainly by centralising it and “transforming” it, thus affording tighter political control on one level and improving the efficiency of the system on another;
• Transforming and “democratising” information and communications technology as “a means for democratic expression” and as an important sector of the economy;
• Subjecting the media to tighter political control and transforming its diversity and ownership, with most of the parties supporting the idea of a media tribunal but differing strongly over its modalities, and with the various parties differing strongly over the proposed Protection of Information Bill;
• Promoting and building the developmental state, with widely diverging viewpoints over how to achieve this; and
• Advancing economic transformation with the ANCYL proposing nationalisation of the mines and seizing farm land for redistribution, and with Cosatu tabling a new socialist economic policy document, among others.

Given the multiplicity of factional and leadership divisions and opposing policy views the NGC in Durban promises to be a lively affair.

But that is not where it will end. The next big test for the broader alliance will be next year’s local government elections.

Unless the parties manage to bury the hatchet it could lead to some serious haemorrhaging for the ANC.

But even if they do unify for electoral purposes, the next big battle will be fought at Zuma’s own “Polokwane” – the next ANC national conference in 2012.

For Zuma it must be like a ghost from the past come to haunt him, for the ousting of former President Thabo Mbeki started at the previous ANC NGC in the buildup to the Polokwane national conference.