SA might still benefit from ANC-alliance’s zero-sum game

As the present standoff between the political and labour components of the governing alliance has deteriorated into a zero-sum game, South Africa as a whole might be the winner in the longer run as it moves closer to a normalised political dispensation – be it along a messy and highly disruptive path. For now there should be no surprise at the chaos of the country’s own winter of discontent.

An analysis published by Leadership Intelligence Bulletin in February of this year, referring to a threat by the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) of a “general strike,” stated that it “could become the front of the final showdown, as the so-called winter of discontent became for British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher some three decades ago.”

The analysis further argued that South Africa is “in a transition to new dividing, more natural, ideological lines. The process seems to have come into full swing and the country is in the midst of a political storm that, as was expected, is a messy affair as different power bases within the ruling alliance battle it out for dominance.

“It is likely to take some time and to be filled by high drama at times, but the political landscape is in the process of changing forever.”

Last week Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi told a media briefing that the ruling tripartite alliance (ANC, SA Communist Party and Cosatu) is now “dysfunctional,” with sharp divisions preventing a scheduled summit between the partners from taking place.

The nature of the rhetoric being bandied about – with a minister calling union members murderers (because of the death of hospital patients, resulting from the strike) while Vavi refers to a predatory state where the First Family fed first  -- has made a settlement with honour just about impossible. Room for face-saving has disappeared.

Vavi was also probably right on the button when he assessed that a number of problems, particularly over economic policy, had put an end to post-Polokwane. It was at Polokwane that Jacob Zuma succeeded, with the help of a wide range of groups with essentially opposing interests, to secure the top spot in the country.

At the media briefing Vavi said the alliance summit due to have convened after the Soccer World Cup (WC) failed to materialise “for fear of implosion as a result of fundamental differences on the question of where the power lies.”

What he failed to mention is the game of brinkmanship the trade union movement played during the time of the WC with what amounted to blackmail to secure disproportionate remuneration packages in the transport sector and from government-owned utility Eskom.

As the battle for power and policy dominance between the various factions within the governing alliance is playing out at the moment, Zuma is increasingly taking on the appearance of what the Americans would call a lame duck presidency. His hopes of securing peace between the factions that brought him to power are fast slipping away.

The real and more important significance of what is happening, however, is probably in Cosatu’s warning in a statement last week that it would withhold its support from some ANC candidates in next year’s local government elections who they regard as unfit for those positions.

“We refuse to campaign for a thief or incompetent, lazy people who only make themselves available for personal gain,” the statement said.

It warned about the anger and disillusionment among voters, which is at such a level that they will turn to opposition parties during next year’s elections. “It is going to be a challenge to persuade voters in some poor communities to stay with the ANC.”

While this is certainly bad news for the ANC, it might be good news for the country because it is a sign that it is finally starting to put the days of liberation politics behind it and moving towards more normal issue-driven politics.

While the details of what is happening within in the ANC, the role and positioning of various individuals and factions and how it plays out on various fronts are fascinating and important, the end game is about much more than what happens within the government of the day.

Maybe the most important question, which might be lurking in the not-too-distant future, is whether the ANC and those at the levers of power within it, will adapt to the new evolving situation of a balance of power and interests rather than a concentration and centralisation of power, with wisdom and grace. Will it become more sophisticated at the political game or resort to authoritarianism?

Democracy in South Africa is probably facing its biggest test since 1994.