Hibernation something of the past?

Just when it seemed Julius Malema was again gaining the upper hand in the highly divided ANC Youth League (ANCYL) of which he is president, the Malema-supporting faction in the Gauteng ANCYL lost the election for provincial chairperson over the weekend. But the split down the middle remains quite close, even as the League is sucked into larger factionalism.

As with the previous highly contested and frequently highly controversial elections in other provinces since April, the winning margin in Gauteng was very narrow. Lebogang Maile, who was elected chairperson in the all-important region, received 300 votes to his opponent Thabo Kupa’s 276.

There is, however, one major difference this time: Unlike in other provinces, the Gauteng election result has not been a victory for Malema’s main opposition, his deputy Andile Lungisa.

Maile had the unofficial backing of ANC Gauteng chairperson and former Gauteng premier Paul Mashatile, while the faction represented by the defeated Kupa had the unofficial backing of Malema and Gauteng’s present premier, Nomvula Mokonyane.

Maile is said to be neutral on the issue of supporting either Malema or Lungisa. Nonetheless, in some ANCYL circles, it is being said Maile will use his new position to challenge Malema next year.

However, the Kupa/Malema faction had beforehand confidently thought the election would go their way and had already prepared to adopt a resolution calling for Malema to serve another two terms as ANCYL president.

That support is now unlikely to be forthcoming from Gauteng, which some in the ANCYL see as a major blow to Malema’s continued leadership aspirations.

Setback for Malema

Before the Gauteng elective conference, Malema seemed well on his way to regaining control of the ANCYL since the League started holding provincial congresses in April. The Malema faction had already gained control through provincial conferences in KwaZulu-Natal, the Free State, Limpopo, the North West and Mpumalanga.

Many of these were highly divided and controversial, resulting in a series of court cases, suspensions of Malema’s opponents, and interventions by the parent ANC. But despite these upheavals, Malema was able to consolidate his support and, since then, both the Mpumalanga and Free State regions have passed resolutions endorsing Malema for the presidency in 2011. Now the picture may have changed again.

But which of the two Gauteng candidates represent the lesser evil politically speaking, is difficult to tell. While Malema’s man lost against a background of controversy over Malema’s allegedly questionable business activities – particularly the lucrative government tenders awarded to a company linked to him – questions have been asked about the business-related activities of rival Maile’s backer, Mashatile.

Unflatteringly named by the media as a member of the so-called “Alex Mafia” (a political-business network in Alexandra, Johannesburg), Mashatile has been accused of appointing his cronies to senior government positions and giving government business to his friends from Alexandra during the time that he served as Gauteng MEC for Economic Development and later as provincial premier.

Start of new trouble?

In the interim, the weekend defeat of the Malema faction could be merely the beginning of more trouble for him. When, among other things, Malema earlier this year lashed out at President Jacob Zuma for reprimanding him and the Youth League, he was hauled in front of a disciplinary hearing and given a suspended sentence designed to silence him at least until the ANCYL’s national conference next year. For several months, Malema remained less vocal in the background, leaving the talking to his executive committee and spokesperson, Floyd Shivambu.

In recent weeks, however, Malema has been noisily reclaiming his centre stage position, and over the weekend once again directly took on President Zuma by demanding that Zuma and the entire ANC leadership should be replaced by younger leaders. In a hardly disguised reference to President Zuma, who is 68 years old, Malema said South Africa should follow the example of other countries where it is accepted that the president should be between the ages of 40 and 60.

He wants the age of the leadership to reflect the ideas and aspirations of younger ANC supporters, he said. This presumably refers to policy differences, such as over the nationalisation of the mines proposed by the ANCYL.

The age angle is a new addition to Malema’s arsenal of political missiles. He and his group have long been campaigning for the replacement of left-winger Gwede Mantashe with former Youth League leader Fikile Mbabula as ANC secretary-general. But that campaign had far less to do with age than with political-business turf. Mantashe has been one of the few leaders who have not shied away from challenging Malema and the ANCYL.

But, more importantly, Mantashe comes from a left-wing grouping in the ANC Alliance that has been critical of corruption, questionable tender awards and self-enrichment in the ANC.

Malema, on the other hand, has been accused of being one of the new breed of self-enriching “tenderpreneurs”, while the name of his close ally Mbalula was recently once again linked in court to the disgraced and murdered former mine boss, Brett Kebble, who allegedly bank-rolled the ANCYL in Mbalula’s time.

Review of sentence

Nonetheless, whether President Zuma and others from the old guard leadership in the ANC will tolerate the latest attack by Malema, is doubtful. They may, however, have to wait for an opportune moment to act – perhaps in the interim giving Malema more political rope to hang himself.

Meanwhile, the ANCYL – and by implication Malema – has publicly and scathingly attacked the senior ANC’s discussion paper on the question of nationalising South Africa’s mines, as demanded by the Youth League, instead of waiting to discuss the issue at the ANC’s national general council next month.

Malema could therefore well fall foul of a review of how the sentence, given to him by the ANC disciplinary committee chaired by Derek Hanekom some months ago, has been carried out.

Not only has he breached the conditions of his suspended sentence by again challenging the ANC leadership in public and waging his battles through the media instead of inside ANC structures but, at last count in July, he had not yet undergone anger management counselling or political re-education as he had been instructed to do as part of his punishment.