Danger of a conflict reaches critical point

The danger of deadly conflict erupting in the Middle East has notched up another few point over last number of days as Iranian and Russian scientists announced that Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant will soon be receiving its first shipment of nuclear fuel, according to reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran has activated equipment to enrich uranium in defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions; and there are increasing signs of bold resistance – from countries such as China, Russia, India and Turkey – to the efforts by the United States and Europe to create a united international font against Iran’s nuclear programme.

After speaking to more than 40 decision-makers about the chances of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, respected Middle East correspondent Jeffrey Goldberg came to the conclusion that there was a better than 50% chance of an Israeli strike before July next year.

At least one expert on the Middle East (former British MI6 intelligence member Alastair Crooke) warned that Hezbollah – supported by Hamas, Syria, Iran and potentially Turkey – will form a “resistance axis” if Israel attacks Lebanon as tensions between the two countries are mounting in the wake of the recent clashes between the Lebanese and Israeli armies in Adaysseh.

As a measure of the fears about conflict, the price of oil has been climbing.

Not all observers are equally pessimistic about the possibility of an eminent conflict, and the Russian/Iranian announcement about nuclear fuel for Bushehr, which has been 36 years in construction, may simply be a case of brinkmanship. It does, however, strategically and dramatically narrow down a possible Israeli/US pre-emptive strike.

“Once Bushehr’s nuclear fuel arrives from Russia, whatever military options against Iran that may be on the table that include Bushehr, will have to come off. Israel and the US have only a few weeks to launch an attack on Iran before Bushehr has the means to begin generating electricity,” the Inter Press Service reported this week.

The power plant is strategically located in southwestern Iran on the Gulf coast.

“An aerial assault on Bushehr would have to take place before any nuclear fuel arrives at the site. Beyond that point, an attack on the nuclear reactor would release deadly radioactive fallout into the entire Persian Gulf region and beyond. Besides the catastrophic human and environmental toll of such an attack, the sea lanes through which much of the world’s oil supplies pass would be endangered,” the report said.

There were further reports that the Iranian armed forces last week mounted security exercises at Bushehr, which included the shooting down of three drones over its airspace. It is widely anticipated that if Israel does launch a strike against the power plant, drones will play a central role to minimise the danger to its own soldiers.

In the interim, the rhetoric coming from all sides, but particularly from within Iran, increasingly seems to be aimed at preparing the local population for the possibility of war. In an interview with The New Yorker earlier this week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was beating the anti-US drum, saying it will be forced to leave the Middle East in the face of increasing opposition to its overseas military bases and “defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan".

On the Lebanon front, the US House of Representatives’ foreign affairs committee chairperson said he suspended US military aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces amid growing concern that American-supplied weapons could threaten Israel, and that the Hezbollah may have influence over the army. The Sate Department, however, expressed the opinion that continued financial support of the Lebanese military was essential.

Iran immediately offered to step into the breach and offered to support Lebanon’s army if aid from the US should indeed be withdrawn, according to Haaretz.com.

The tensions in the Middle East are increasingly threatening to divide the world deeply along lines reminiscent to the days of the Cold War, or even worse. According to a report from the Los Angeles Times, the latest round of US/European sanctions against Iran have seen China, Russia, India and Turkey “rushing to boost their economies by seizing investment opportunities in defiance of sanctions imposed by the West.”