Learners could be the big losers

It seems more likely than not that South Africa will soon be subjected to a massive public sector strike. With both the government and public sector workers rejecting each other’s settlement proposals, a strike by between 900 000 and 1.3 million public sector employees could start as early as Thursday this week.

For the country it could be disastrous, against the background of ongoing job losses, the spectre of more global economic pressures, South Africa’s own slow economic recovery, the ongoing delivery failure and local government crisis, shaky investor confidence, and the fact that more than 245 000 teachers may abandon their charges only weeks before the vital end-of-year exams.

Most vulnerable will be the 650 000-odd matriculants whose final academic year has already been badly disrupted by the Fifa Soccer World Cup. Having just returned to their classrooms after a month-long holiday courtesy of Fifa and an obliging government, a large number of teachers are now aiming for a second, indefinite 'holiday' in pursuit of fatter pay-and-perks packages despite the government having offered increases well above the inflation rate.

Left to their own fate if the strike goes ahead, many matriculants will have to embark on final preparations for the most important examination of their life without the support or guidance of their teachers. They will be faced with the near impossible task of trying to improve a desperately negative Matric pass rate that has steadily been falling from 73.3% in 2003 to last year’s 60.6%.

A teachers’ strike is not likely to impact much on previous Model C schools, which means that those who can least afford it, namely schools serving historically disadvantaged communities, will be the hardest hit. These schools already suffer from overcrowding, poor facilities, sub-standard quality of teaching and high levels of teacher absenteeism, among many other ills.

Meanwhile, the strike threat comes against the background of a job market that continues to be under severe pressure. The economy, still struggling to recover from the 2008/09 recession, continues to shed jobs, albeit at a slower rate. Official figures recently released showed a loss of 61 000 jobs in the second quarter of 2010 compared to 171 000 jobs lost in the first quarter.

Whether this haemorrhage can be arrested any time soon remains to be seen, as South Africa continues to be affected by the ongoing economic turmoil in Europe, its biggest export market. In the interim, the threat of a double-dip second recession “Investment Climate” continues to hover ominously on the horizon.

However, economists at Moody's Analytics say local companies are unlikely to employ more workers in significant numbers until economic recovery seems more certain here and abroad. Job creation will depend heavily on particularly recovery in the local manufacturing sector, which in turn is dependent on the health of global demand. For the local components of this scenario, any paralysing strike in the public sector could have a negative knock-on effect.

Another factor militating strongly against the current season of labour turmoil linked to the annual wage negotiations period is a warning just issued by the World Bank that South Africa’s high labour costs are the major obstacle standing in the way of attracting the foreign investment required for job creation and fighting poverty. This warning is based on a comparative study of other emerging economies such as India, Brazil and China.

To improve this situation, South Africa will have to grow its manufacturing sector considerably by offering improved productivity and lower wages. The first hurdle that has to be overcome is the culture of labour militancy, protracted strikes and unreasonable wage demands - a picture that is about to repeat itself in the public sector.

Meanwhile, the 200 000-strong Public Servants Association, the independent public sector unions represented by the Independent Labour Caucus, and the public sector unions affiliated to the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) have all rejected the final offer made by the government. And the government has demanded they accept its offer by Wednesday, with Public Service and Administration Minister Richard Baloyi urging them to accept the offer in the best interest of the country.

The three labour groups are currently consulting their members and are working to align their responses with a view to a possible strike.

The public servants were demanding an 8.6% salary increase plus a housing subsidy of R1 000 a month, backdated to 1 April. The government, on the other hand, is offering a 6.5% increase and a R620 housing subsidy effective from 1 July. Both parties say they will not budge from either position.

In the interim, the National Union of Public Service and Allied Workers has called on its members to start picketing during lunch breaks from yesterday, while the South African Municipal Workers’ Union and its allies were also preparing to strike, the union said yesterday.

It also seems likely that the Department of Home Affairs could be one of those hardest hit by such a strike, meaning there will be disruptions in the issuing of identity documents and passports. Last week, several unions – some performing essential services – affiliated to Cosatu, including the South African Democratic Teachers Union, the National Education, Health, and Allied Workers Union, the Democratic Nursing Organisation of South Africa and the Police and Prisons Civil Rights Union served strike notices on the government. These unions represent 56% of the 1.3 million public sector employees.

Possible outcomes of the current impasse are that the unions may try to force the government’s hand through brinkmanship and threats. The government may give in to their demands and allocate more cash, which it can ill afford. Or the country can become bogged down in a full-scale, protracted strike. And whether or not the government ups its offer, it will already be hard pressed to make its books balance after the public servants raise the state’s wage bill.