The scramble for resources

It is on the energy front that it is the most acute, but there is a wider global scramble currently for access to and control over resources, creating pressures on many fronts for the world as we know it. It is not only natural resources that are at stake, but also human capital in the form of skilled and affordable labour and consumers. The future will largely be determined by how the risks and opportunities of this scramble play out.

Three underlying factors are driving this scramble for resources: the depletion of the availability of some, and easy accessibility of other, mineral resources; the inevitability of climate change, of which only the tempo is still open to debate; and the ageing of populations with its manpower and market implications in the developed world.

Energy

On the front of depleting mineral resources, the most acute – and the one with the most profound implications for humanity's present way of life – are the present main sources of energy: the most basic component of all nature’s systems, the economy and society’s quality of life.

According to the South African report on 2030 Conversations, 81% of the world’s energy consumption is fed by fossil fuels. The mix is 35% oil, 25% coal, and 21% natural gas.

All these resources presently face global production peaks (the point where the total already extracted reserves surpasses that which is left on the globe). In the case of oil, that point has arguably already been passed; for natural gas it is estimated to be between 2015 and 2040; and for coal around 2025.

That which is happening with the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in a way is  symptomatic of the fact that we have passed or are about to pass the point called peak oil. We have reached a stage where it is becoming increasingly difficult, more dangerous and expensive to access the known global reserves.

It is also a stage during which the tempo of depletion reserves will increase due to accelerating demand for energy. According to the 2030 Conversations report, “it took 140 years (1859-1999) to consume the first trillion barrels of oil, but it will only take 30 years (2000-2030) to consume the second trillion barrels.

This situation brings with it risks of international conflict as the largest reserves of remaining sources of oil are situated outside clearly defined areas of geographical jurisdictions – being the Arctic and Antarctica. In fact, the first war about the eventual control over some of the riches off the coast of Antarctica took place a quarter of a century ago between Britain and Argentina on the Falkland Islands.

During the advent of the first decade of this century, the letter and spirit of the 1959 Antarctic Treaty has come under pressure – some of it from countries far removed from this snow- and ice-covered continent. This includes the largest military buildup since World War 2, deep into the Antarctic Ocean, which the Antarctic Treaty stipulates is to be free of military hardware and weaponry.

As far back as 2008, Spiegel Online reported how information about the environmental dangers associated with exploring oil reserves in the Arctic Circle was being suppressed by America and other countries with interests there.

Another report in June this year highlighted the problems lying ahead with regard to competing claims between the countries bordering the Arctic, by posing the question: “Is it high time for a tough Arctic treaty? Debate rages over whether ‘soft-law’ approach can cope with hard issues of sovereignty that lie ahead".

More than just oil

But the interest in Antarctica, for one, goes way beyond merely the oil under the ice- and snow-covered land and its continental shelf. On the mainland of this seemingly desolate continent lies a layer of Permian Period coal, and it holds 500 billion tonnes in known reserves.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for one, warns that by 2020 at least 75 million Africans are expected to struggle to obtain fresh water. South Africa’s own fresh water problems are widely documented, with increasing talk of and some plans put into place to desalinate seawater.

Some experts assess, based on research, that South Africa will have a 6% water supply deficit by 2013 and an 11% deficit by 2019.

But water problems and signs that human society is running out of readily available fresh water are not restricted to the African continent. The mighty Colorado River in the United States does not reach the sea anymore. All its water is being used before it can reach the shore.

Against this background, it is worth noting that the ice layer over the Antarctic land mass represents 75% of the planet's fresh water. The sea surrounding it is also home to a potentially vast supply of seafood.

As the scramble heats up for mineral resources – from manganese, iron ore to natural gas – conservation areas and agricultural land are coming under pressure. Reports about prospecting for minerals in sensitive areas in South Africa – be it the Groot Winterhoek mountains or the Cape Winelands – have become a regular occurrence, even in places one does not normally associate with mining activities, such as New Zealand. Earlier this year, that country’s government indicated that some conservation areas might be released for exploration purposes.

Food and land

But it is even more basic than that. It is estimated that the world’s present food demand will double by the year 2050.

This in itself means there will be tremendous pressure on arable land, and already has triggered a scramble for the one place on earth where there is land to spare at this point – Africa.

Africa, along with most of Asia, offers two other resources in short supply in the developed world – a young population in terms of average age and under-developed consumer markets. This goes hand in hand with the need to develop skills to support the present standard of living in the developed world and to broaden it globally.

Over the last couple of weeks, we have looked at some of the key factors that seem to be lining up in a present-day epoch as prelude to a new era in human history.

While there are many risks involved and change is often experienced with fears, it is also a time of great opportunities.

Next week, we will start looking at some of the scenarios for the future and the opportunities accompanying them.

Piet Coetzer, Editor: Leadership Intelligence Bulletin