Real danger of terror attacks spreading

The African Union (AU) Summit that began in Kampala, Uganda on 19 July will arguably be one of the organisation’s most important meetings in a long time and will probably set the future AU action in trying to settle conflicts in Africa as the continued political turmoil in Somalia is threatening to spread out across the continent and wider.

High on the AU’s agenda is the Somalian political quagmire. Concern is growing that extreme Islamists under the guidance of al-Shabaab – which Washington describes as increasingly being tied to al-Qaeda’s global agenda – is unwavering in its plan to reform Somalia into a fundamentalist Islamic state.

The AU Summit was expected to discuss the future role of the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to solve the Somalian issue. There was strong suggestion early on that there will be a request to increase the AMISOM troop strength from the existing 6 000 to 20 000.

In the aftermath of the 11 July Kampala bombings, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda indicated that he plans to increase the Ugandan contingent to 6 000 from the existing 2 000.

al-Shabaab made the opening move and set the stage for the AU Summit by initiating the two bombings in the Ugandan capital. One bomb went off at a popular Ethiopian restaurant and the second across the city at a rugby field where hundreds of spectators were watching the Fifa Soccer World Cup final being played in Johannesburg. A total of 76 people were killed.

The message of the bombings, al-Shabaab’s first strike outside Somalia days before the AU Summit, is clear: al-Shabaab is willing to go transnational with its terror campaign against any country involved in Somalia, and it has said as such.

After the bombings, a spokesperson of al-Shabaab warned: “We are sending a message to every country who is willing to send troops to Somalia that they will face attacks on their territory.”

He added that Burundi, with 2 500 troops – the second-largest troop contributor to AMISOM after Uganda – “will face similar attacks if they don’t withdraw.”

Selection of targets

The selection of Kampala and an Ethiopian restaurant as the first target of what may become a spate of al-Shabaab terror attacks across Africa, is no coincidence. Not only is Uganda the largest contributor of personnel to AMISOM, but Ethiopia – fearful of Islamic fundamentalists gaining the upper hand in Somalia – intervened in 2006 in that country with tacit American support to halt if not defeat the growing popularity of the Islamic fundamentalists and has done so ever since.

The AU has been battling, largely unsuccessfully, for years to get an African military force, called the African Standby Force, ready to intervene in the many conflicts and internal unrest in Africa such as in Somalia.

Critics argue that al-Shabaab’s confidence to launch an attack in the capital of one of the main contributors to AMISOM is indicative of the AU’s inability to act.

American friendship dangerous

It further serves as warning to countries which participate in or support AMISOM that they should be prepared for retaliation attacks which include the United States.

The involvement of the US in its support for AMISOM, which takes on many forms, and its backing for the unsteady and weak Transitional Federal Government in Mogadishu, makes American targets a logical consequence.

As a staunch ally of Uganda, the 11 July attack should serve as a message to countries with close links to the US.

The reaction from the US to the Kampala bombings was predictable, and the attitude in Washington will no doubt increase tension in the Horn of Africa.

Not only is Uganda an indispensable US ally in a troublesome part of Africa, it serves at the moment as a trusted co-campaigner in the fight against radical Islam in Somalia, which is key to Washington’s global fight against terror. To lose such a reliable ally at the moment would be a disaster.

Then, to top it all off, according to various sources there lies a large reserve of oil in Uganda’s Lake Albert basin.

US President Barack Obama, in a recent interview with the SABC, warned that al-Shabaab represents a growing threat to the region and added that Washington will “redouble” its efforts against al-Shabaab.

Certain analysts are speculating that in light of the Kampala bombings, some  leading neighbouring states, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti – where the US Africa Command has a base with a couple of thousand troops stationed – may reconsider their future policy vis-à-vis the Islamic fundamentalists in Somalia.

Shocked by the brazenness of the attacks, they might have come to the conclusion that the threat emanating from Somalia can no longer be viewed as one to be left in the hands of a poorly supported intervention force, but that they may rather have to consider involving themselves in a forceful engagement which is multilateral in its military and political capabilities.

The AU meeting in Kampala should shed more light on what the next step will be.

In the interim, only time will tell if the message of al-Shabaab was taken seriously enough and if more innocent victims are going to die as a result of political and religious extremism.