Is this the beginning of a stormy negotiations season?

The strike by an estimated 46 000 Transnet workers is now being dragged into the political arena and could also be expanded to include sympathy strikes by other unions after mediation attempts by the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA) failed. And the strike, with its devastating economic impact, intimidation of non-strikers and damage to property, may be a foretaste of things to come as annual wage negotiations in South Africa get under way. It also underlines the unhealthy relationship that is amounting massive conflict of interest with the presence of the trade union movement in formal government structures.

The strike, which began over a week ago, has severely disrupted South African rail and harbour services. It has badly affected exports of commodities, wine and fruit, while threatening oil imports and coal supplies to national energy utility, Eskom. Several mining companies have declared force majeure on shipments, unable to supply their customers. A substantial number of ships with goods destined for South Africa or coming to pick up export goods have also had to be turned away from local ports, or have been made to lie at anchor outside the ports at great cost.

The unions involved in the strike are the United Transport and Allied Trade Union (Utata), which is affiliated to the Federation of Trade Unions of South Africa (Fedusa) and represents about 20 700 of the striking workers; the South African Transport and Allied Workers’ Union (Satawu), which is affiliated to the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and represents about 18 000 of the striking workers; and the South African Railways and Harbours Workers’ Union (SARHWU), which represents the rest.

Utata has now appealed to Fedusa, and Satawu to Cosatu, to ask other unions in the two federations to join the strike in solidarity. At the time of writing, the federations had yet to respond officially to the call.

In the interim, however, Satawu is pushing Cosatu to involve the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in the matter, saying it believes the strike has reached the stage where political intervention is required.

However, the ANC and the government may be loath to become involved other than calling for a quick end to the strike. They will most likely be sharing the concern of analysts and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), who strongly criticised the unions’ 15% pay increase demand above the 11% offered by Transnet, saying that any pay increase well above the 5.1% inflation rate would seriously impede South Africa's economic recovery.

Making matters worse is the fact that the strike comes on the back of the release of government data showing massive ongoing job losses in the economy despite signs of recovery.

But given the ongoing serious tensions around policy and other issues between the ANC and its ally Cosatu, the ANC may be put in a very difficult position by any call for it to become involved. Whatever the ANC does once it has been formally asked to intervene – that is, whether it accepts or rejects the call, or whether it acts in favour of or against the strikers – it will have adverse consequences for the ANC/government.

Furthermore, the ANC/government would effectively be asked to choose sides in a labour dispute between a union affiliated to its political ally Cosatu, and the government-appointed management of a parastatal of which it is the owner.

Another reason that the ANC/government may be loath to become involved is the fact that Transnet last week had to obtain a court interdict against Satawu, prohibiting its workers from intimidating non-striking workers and damaging Transnet property. After President Jacob Zuma last year strongly condemned such actions by striking workers, his party and the government can hardly be seen to come out batting for the culprits.

Finally, the characteristics of this strike may be a foretaste of more damaging and irresponsible labour action to come as South Africa’s annual mid-year wage negotiations season gets under way, and – unlike school terms – could not be adjusted to accommodate the Fifa Soccer World Cup tournament.