A brilliant outcome – almost

The punishment meted out to controversial ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema last week for disrespecting ANC President Jacob Zuma raises questions as to whether it was appropriate and what further consequences may arise from it. Overall, the punishment given to Malema in terms of a plea bargain agreement, was able to address the issue effectively within the context of achieving the best possible outcome for the ANC itself. However, the outcome may have produced an unintentional double-edged sword for Zuma and the ANC, while also leaving some uncomfortable, unfinished 'Malema business' hovering around.

From the ANC’s point of view, and that of Zuma, it probably achieved the best possible outcome under the circumstances. The plea bargain agreement led to the dropping of the charges against Malema for having brought the ANC into disrepute, among other things by flouting ANC neutrality and openly supporting Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe; having defied leadership instructions not to comment on the murder of Eugene Terre’Blanche; singing the “Kill the Boer” song in defiance of court actions; and verbally abusing a BBC journalist.

Instead, he was only charged in terms of Section 25.5(i) of the ANC Constitution in respect of his alleged disrespect for Zuma relating to behaviour that causes divisions and undermines unity in the organisation. Pleading guilty to that charge, Malema was fined R10 000, told to report for political education, notified to go for anger management counselling, ordered to apologise to Zuma, and given a suspended sentence of two years which, if he should transgress during that time, would lead to his summary suspension.

The immediate benefits of the plea bargain arrangement were:

·         The ANC leadership was seen to act against Malema as promised, showing that it would not allow Malema to overstep the line unchallenged;

·         The sentence allowed Zuma to save face; and

·         By watering down the charges to a single one, the ANC avoided serious trouble and instability within its household. Had Malema been suspended or expelled, his supporters in the ANCYL would most certainly have reacted strongly.

Beside the suspended sentence, the R10 000 fine, anger management course and political education could almost be considered irrelevant.

The plea bargain aspect, which at first glance seemed to indicate that the senior ANC leadership was backing down, had already produced another benefit. When the ANCYL demanded at an ANC national executive committee (NEC) meeting last week that its leader’s disciplinary hearing be discussed, Zuma shot it down, saying that Malema should go through the right channels and appeal the hearing’s findings if he so pleased.

Zuma and the other ANC leaders, however, knew that Malema, having accepted a plea bargain, had thereby forfeited his right of appeal.

It could also turn out to be a mortal blow to Malema’s political career, having been effectively gagged for the next two years.

For one, he will not be able to play any further obvious roles as kingmaker, or campaign for certain leaders against others in the run-up to the ANC’s next national conference in 2012.

However, the rest of the present ANCYL leadership could, with support from branches and regions, continue such campaigning on his behalf. But there is a problem: the ANCYL itself is split into pro- and anti-Malema factions, and his leadership is currently being seriously challenged in the run-up to the Youth League’s next elective conference to be held in 2011. So the gagging will undermine him on that front as well.

Serious divisions already emerged at a recent ANCYL special congress in Limpopo, with the Malema faction resorting to alleged underhand tactics and commandeering the services of the police and local traffic police to have their opponents thrown out and even arrested.

In the Eastern Cape, the ANCYL conference was adjourned on Monday morning without a new leadership having been elected due to the tensions between the Malema-supporting faction and a faction aligned to ANCYL national deputy president Andile Lungisa, who is gearing up to challenge Malema for the top position.

However, the double-edged sword created by the disciplinary hearing’s punishment of Malema is that the ANC may have created such a monster in Malema that he misinterprets his punishment as a victory for himself, or which allows him largely to get away with his arrogance and confrontational style – strengthening his own belief of being untouchable or, at the very least, believing that the punishment was irrelevant enough for him to challenge it. This could lead to some serious trouble in the ANC family.

Already there are signs of the latter, with the ANCYL leadership, having failed to pull off a discussion of Malema’s punishment at the ANC’s NEC meeting, going on the attack against Zuma – linking his personal life to the ANCYL’s HIV/Aids-linked “one boyfriend, one girlfriend” campaign. But as Malema should begin realising by now, the junior ANC will not win a fight against the senior ANC in the longer term.

From a broader public relations perspective, the outcome may not have produced good results. Those not familiar with the inner workings and processes of a political party such as the ANC may view these developments as reflecting a watering down of the charges against Malema, his receiving a lenient token sentence, and Malema thus emerging the victor. That will not encourage confidence in the ANC, its leaders and by extension the Zuma government.

Finally, the ANC’s handling of the affair may have settled the matter in the best possible way for the ANC itself, but it has offered no space for others outside the ANC Alliance embroiled in disputes with Malema to settle this dissension in a manner that will avoid further turmoil and tension.

An example of this is the pending court actions and human rights-related charges brought against Malema by organisations such as AfriForum. However, should these actions continue and possibly lead to further measures being taken against Malema, most of the ANC leadership will probably approve privately. The danger, though, is once again a possible backlash reaction by Malema’s supporters which could get out of hand.

For now, it seems that the Malema saga is far from over.