Cope is falling by the wayside as SA moves toward coalition politics

The apparent political suicide being committed by leaders of the once hopeful Congress of the People (Cope) is undermining the chances of a viable consolidated centre-right opposition challenge to the ruling African National Congress (ANC). It is, however, a symptom of the fact that the present party political dispensation is out of kilter with what one would expect of the country’s Constitution with its proportional voting system.

For now, what is happening to Cope seems to be strengthening the entrenchment of de facto one-party rule by the ANC and thereby, too, the assault on key elements of the Constitution by dominant factions in the ANC, which was the very raison d'être for the creation of Cope.

On the surface, it has returned South Africa to a lopsided, ineffectual two-way electoral contest between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA)  – with the “Alliance” part of the name really a misnomer, since it is in fact a single party.

However, the ANC-led tripartite Alliance is probably in its most brittle phase ever since 1994, and further fracturing cannot be ruled out. Keep in mind that a proportional system, wherever it is in place in the world, facilitates the formation of smaller parties based on particular interests such as labour, the environment or economic ideology.

A substantial reason for the tensions within the ANC could probably be ascribed to the fact that the government functions as something between a single political party and a coalition government, where the basis for the coalition and its policies are constantly subject to negotiations.

Should a breakup of the ANC-led Alliance occur along those sort of lines – and somehow the Alliance has always proven wrong the prophets of its doom – it will not necessarily immediately benefit the current DA-led movement for a unified centre-right opposition. It will, however, more than likely lead to the sort of coalition politics and government typical of a proportional voting system.

It is likely that a split of the ANC Alliance will introduce an independent, socialist and worker-based movement into the mix. Such a workers’ movement/party is likely to enter into a coalition with the ANC, depending on its own strength and future options within the current electoral system.

In line with the circumstances under which it was born, the situation in Cope has rapidly deteriorated around a bitter leadership struggle between the party’s two 'stars' – Deputy President Mbhazima (Sam) Shilowa and President Mosiuoa (Terror) Lekota – which is reminiscent of the divisive battle for control of the ANC between President Jacob Zuma and former President Thabo Mbeki. That, too, played a major role in driving Shilowa and Lekota out of the ANC in the first place to form Cope.

In the last general election a year ago, the DA scored 16.7% of the national vote to the ANC’s 65.9%, and captured the Western Cape Province, leaving the other eight provinces firmly in ANC hands. Bringing up the respectable rear – given its lack of funds and organisation so soon after its launch – was Cope, with 7.4% of the vote.

There was every promise at the time that a sizeable part of the South African electorate – fed up with the ANC’s internal power squabbles, its corruption, failure to deliver, and its assault on the Constitution – would channel its support to the new political kid on the block once it had properly set up its structures, secured funding and elected its leadership.

This has not occurred – not only because of the internal personality clashes, but because personalities alone and being merely an opposition is not sufficient to render a political party viable. It takes clearly defined policies, principles and goals.

Next year’s municipal election, with the pressures it will bring, may give some indications if and how long the ANC-led Alliance could hold. It may also give some indication of the longer term viability of Cope as the country edges closer to an era of coalition government.