Gauteng à la Polokwane

The way in which the bitter leadership struggle in the African National Congress (ANC) in Gauteng has played itself out is almost a carbon copy of the leadership battle that took place between Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma at Polokwane in 2007. South Africa’s wealthiest province, which is also its industrial and financial hub and houses the country’s administrative capital, now sits with two centres of power: Paul Mashatile as the re-elected provincial ANC leader and Nomvula Mokonyane as a lame duck premier who holds no provincial ANC office.

This kind of bruising leadership contest was first introduced into the post-1994 ANC in the run-up to the 2007 Polokwane conference. In many ways, it is something – alien to the ANC before 2007 – that has come back to bite the hand that created it.

It also immediately exposed the dangers involved in the lack of proper division and distance between party structures and day-to-day government administration in terms of the dictates of the constitution of the land.

Premier Mokonyane, who lost with 364 votes to Mashatile’s 513, is already under threat from Mashatile who warned that there is only one centre of power, namely the ANC – implying himself – and that if she and her provincial government do not carry out ANC orders, there “will be consequences”.

Before losing to Mashatile, Mokonyane was the deputy chairperson of the ANC in Gauteng.

After losing, she declined an invitation to serve as a co-opted member of the provincial executive committee (PEC), but remains on the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC).

Despite a poor track record in office, Tshwane Mayor Gwen Ramokgopa was elected deputy chairperson. David Makhura retained his position as provincial secretary. Humphrey Memezi was elected the new deputy secretary and Ntombi Mekgwe, the mayor of Ekurhuleni, is the new treasurer.

A number of other consequences flow from Mashatile’s election:

The election was a display by ANC members in Gauteng of their dislike of Mokonyane and a rejection of her having been imposed on the province as premier by the ANC’s national leadership, including President Zuma. Mashatile, who had set his hopes on becoming premier of this province ever since former premier and provincial leader Mbhazima Shilowa broke away from the ANC to help form the Congress of the People (Cope), was overlooked by Zuma in favour of Mokonyane. Mashatile was 'placated' with a junior appointment of no political influence as Arts and Culture deputy minister. Now there is talk he may be elevated to full Cabinet membership, as he can no longer be ignored by Zuma and the national leadership. In essence, Mashatile’s re-election has thrown down the gauntlet to Zuma, challenging his power, and/or that of the senior ANC national leadership, to impose unilateral decisions;

Furthermore, Mashatile’s re-election is a signal to ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema and his organisation that their influence in the province is under threat. The Youth League had initially backed Mokonyane, but had to withdraw its backing for her under pressure from the branches of the province. The new provincial leaders also promised a crackdown on ill discipline and on those who abused their position in government to settle political scores;

Mashatile has also received the backing of the Left – the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the communists – which is bad news for Malema and his Youth League, due to their much publicised differences of late. In announcing that it backed Mashatile, Gauteng Cosatu, however, went against Cosatu’s own assessment that backing personalities rather than policies – as it had done back in Polokwane 2007– had been a mistake; and

By backing Mashatile, Cosatu has also put its self-proclaimed crusade against corruption in the ANC and the government on the line, as a cloud of allegations regarding dubious tender awards still hangs over the head of Mashatile and his friends in the so-called “Alex Mafia”. But as it did with Zuma back in 2007, Cosatu has adopted the position that Mashatile remains innocent until proven otherwise.

If anything, these provincial leadership elections have further entrenched the practice of very popular politicians being elected to high office despite whatever clouds of corruption, run-ins with the law, or gross incompetence may hang over them.

It now remains to be seen whether Mashatile will do to Makonyane what Zuma did to Mbeki, namely provide her with a sword on which to fall. In the meantime, however, the emerging situation is bad news for South Africa’s powerhouse province, as it now follows in the footsteps of the Free State and other provinces where competing centres of power and bitter factional divisions rendered the ANC government completely ineffective and ushered in rapid decline and non-delivery.