Whatever the outcome, uncertain times await Britain

Not since the 1970s, when first a Conservative minority government was followed after six months by a weak Labour government (eventually ousted by a vote of no-confidence) before Margaret Thatcher took over, has Britain experienced more political uncertainty as it does presently. And next week's general election seems set to increase rather than reduce that uncertainty.

Under one of the oddities of the British constitutional dispensation – besides the fact that it does not have a written constitution – the present  ruling Labour Party (LP) may well finish third in the popular vote, but retain most of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. It could even hang onto the position of prime minister and the right to form a government.

The surprise package of the election and long-time number-three party, the Liberal Democrats (LDP), under its telematic leader Nick Clegg, seems set to pull in the order of 30% of the overall votes. Because of the way his supporters are distributed around the country, this would give the LDP only about 100 or 15% of the 650 seats in the House of Commons.

This could force the LP’s Gordon Brown to seek the support of or even a coalition with the LDP to form a government. Clegg, however, may decide to go with David Cameron’s Conservative Party (CP) as almost occurred in February 1974.

Back then, the CP or Tories won 297 seats and the LP 302, but the Conservatives had more overall votes and Edward Heath attempted to make a deal with the then Liberal Party, which had 14 seats. When negotiations foundered, he resigned. His successor Harold Wilson attempted to soldier on for six months with a minority government before calling a next election.

That one was won by Labour with a slight majority, and it governed under a pact with the Liberals until it lost a confidence debate in 1979. In the election that followed, Thatcher delivered a massive swing toward the Torries, which gave a majority of one seat.

These sorts of scenarios are possible under the Westminster electoral system where individual members of parliament are elected on simple or first-past-the-post elections within demarcated constituencies. The overall  popular vote is distorted further in favour of the LP by the way in which it became concentrated over time in working class, densely populated urban areas.

Predicting how nationwide popularity translates into individual parliamentary seats is notoriously difficult, and different models developed for the purpose have had varied levels of success.

The CP leads in the polls and could well end up with the most seats, though likely short of the majority it would require to control the government. A third-place finish for Labour in any case would be a giant embarrassment for Prime Minister Gordon Brown and jeopardise his status as the party's leader, as well as slash Labour's electoral strength.

Clegg has gone on record as saying it would be “preposterous” for Brown to stay as prime minister if his LP finished third in the popular vote – seemingly ruling out support for such a government in a Hung parliament.

However, he is also on record as saying that reform of the voting system in the United Kingdom to establish some proportional representation would be a precondition for his support for any government – something to which the Tories are strongly opposed. Clegg’s party is also strongly in favour of a written constitution – another no-no for the Conservatives.

The political landscape has changed considerably over the last two decades. Where there were only 37 MPs from parties other than the traditional big two – Labour and Conservative – in 1974 there were 92 at the last election. Not only has so-called home rule for Scotland, Wales and Ireland contributed to this situation, but the proportional system used for elections to the European Parliament has seen also the establishment and viability of smaller, often special-interest, parties.

At the same time, there is a growing lobby to see some form of home rule being established also for England.

It is no wonder then that Britain’s complex electoral system has emerged as a central issue in a election which, if no clear winner emerges – as is increasingly seeming likely – would lead to moves toward electoral and even wider constitutional reform.