First-ever television debates become a crucial factor

The first-ever televised election debates in the history of the United Kingdom seem to have pushed the oldest democracy in the world closer to its first hung parliament, in more than 30 years, as a likely result of the general election on 6 May. All indications are that with two more television debates to come, this new phenomenon on the British political scene could play a crucial role in turning the election into a historically momentous one.

While its details show small differences in the figures, all the polls done immediately after Thursday’s debate between the leaders of the three largest parties (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats) indicate that the Lib Dem was the biggest winner; and the hereto front-running Conservatives (Tories) the greatest losers.

Within 24 hours of the TV debate, watched by 10 million people, the betting markets had swung toward a hung parliament, the Lib Dem poll rating had overtaken Labour's in certain polls, and the election had been blown wide open.

The Tories require an extra 116 seats for a majority - and 25 of these target seats are Lib Dem. And if they hang onto these seats, as the poll figures suggest they easily could, the Tories will have to look elsewhere to get to the magic figure of 116.

The Tories would have to strike much deeper into Labour heartlands to get those extra MPs than they would have bargained for at the start of the campaign.

However, Britain's constituency based on a first-past-the-post system ensures that being third in the polls does not translate into many more seats. Projections are that the latest opinion polls would translate into Labour being the largest party in parliament on 280 seats, Conservatives second on 260 seats, and Liberal Democrats third on only 72 seats in the 650-seat parliament.

The BBC's election seat calculator comes up with a slightly different permutation, suggesting that Labour would be the largest single party with 276 MPs against 246 Tories and 99 Lib Dems. Consensus, however, is that the election will leave none of the two top parties with an overall majority; and see the Lib Dem in the position of kingmakers.

Conservatives pandering to a party that is to the left of Labour will not work and simply will further dilute the Conservatives' appeal among potential voters, therefore it increasingly will come down to the Conservatives having to battle against both Labour and the Lib Dems, which increases the probability of a hung parliament.

The Lib Dems are likely, in the process, to pull off one of the greatest and most fundamental changes in the UK’s constitution setup in 100 years. Lib Dem leader Nick Glegg is on record that he would demand electoral reform in exchange for his co-operation. It is likely to be a demand legislation to introduce proportional representation, which already has seen the establishment of feasible smaller UK parties in the European parliament.

Hung parliaments have worked for the UK in the past. But the political landscape has changed dramatically over the last 30 or so years. In 1974 there were 37 MPs from other parties apart from the big two. At the last election, there were 92.

Professor Anthony King of Essex University told The Telegraph newspaper that this time around, the UK “will be in untrodden territory... because we have multi-party Westminster politics in a way we have never had before. The sheer arithmetical probability of a stalemate is greater than at any time in the last 100 years.”

However, with less than three weeks and two more TV debates to go before polling day, the race remains wide open. At this point, a surprising number of voters are still undecided, and the two remaining debates can play a decisive role. In a stroke of misfortune for Labour and the Tories, the focus of discussion at this week’s debate on Thursday is to be on foreign policy. Only the Lib Dems voted against Britain's invasion of Iraq – a position Clegg is bound to capitalise on.