Fight-back and re-election campaign launched

After initially saying he would be serving only one term as president, Jacob Zuma has changed his tune. On two occasions last week, he indicated willingness to serve a second term if called upon to do so. It was the first time Zuma gave any indication that he wanted to serve more than one term. It remains to be seen how real the re-election campaign is and to what extent it is a tactical move to calm down premature succession battles.

President Zuma may have been fired up by a need to challenge his many critics, re-establish and consolidate his position by employing attack as the best form of defence. He also may have been prompted into the new stance by advisers who are worried about the destructive influence of premature succession campaigns.

Furthermore, he may have been encouraged by the results of two recent opinion polls that showed his popularity to be at a high point.

The latter led to one of his staunchest supporters, Justice and Constitutional Development Minister Jeff Radebe, trumpeting in Parliament last week that Zuma was even more popular than the ANC. However, both surveys were conducted before December last year and therefore before the recent love-child scandal that erupted around him and plunged his public rating into highly negative territory.

Nonetheless, essentially what most observers seem to have missed was a Zuma, supported by his cabal-like inner circle led by Radebe, firing the first salvo of his fight-back and re-election campaign.

His political tenacity showed when – still drenched in the political fallout from and highly negative public reaction to the revelations of his love child, in addition to his bigamous exploits – he went to the United Kingdom as guest of the Queen and stoically, sometimes even aggressively, stood his ground against Britain’s merciless tabloid media.

Emboldened by his survival of that slaughter attempt, he and his inner circle of confidantes – mostly long-time colleagues from KwaZulu-Natal, going back to the Struggle era – set in motion the behind-the-scenes processes that have to rebuild his popularity among the various constituencies that first brought him to power.

His seemingly successful mission to Zimbabwe also could do the rebuilding of his image a world of good.

Having no major, consolidated power base of his own apart from the KwaZulu-Natal cabal – which in turn is very dependent on political patronage – Zuma to date has relied heavily on the support of the ANC Youth League (ANCYL), the SA Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu).

Under the pressures of practical governance, he has found himself increasingly at odds with the Left on matters of macro-economic policy and their level of influence in the government. It seems he would have to rely heavily on the continued goodwill of the Youth League and, particularly, its leader Julius Malema, if he were to survive politically.

The Youth League and Malema are variously on record saying that Zuma “will” serve a second term, but also that the ANCYL would remove him if he failed to live up to expectations. This may have been an error that may have irked an otherwise highly accommodating Zuma.

Another error was the Youth League’s persistent attacks on Zuma’s only remaining solid link with the Left, ANC secretary-general and SACP chairperson, Gwede Mantashe. The ANCYL made no bones about its plans to remove Mantashe at the next ANC national conference and replace him with former league president and current Deputy Minister of Police, Fikile Mbalula. Mantashe has been loyal to both Zuma and the ANC, and often has served as a bridge of reason and compromise between the various divided factions of the ANC-led alliance.

A third error was the Youth League’s scathing public attacks on some of Zuma’s ministers, not least Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Gordhan is a close Zuma ally from the Operation Vula underground days in KwaZulu-Natal, and therefore – in Zuma’s eyes – untouchable.

Gordhan also played a large role in giving widely acceptable substance, with his Budget, to many of Zuma’s policies, in the process bridging some of the divide between the Left and the centre in the ANC alliance. A much needed ally for a man in Zuma’s position, and therefore not one to be messed with.

This provided the necessary impetus to move the Left, particularly the powerful Cosatu, and the Zuma centre back together again. Forgotten was the fact that Cosatu itself had not so long ago rubbished Zuma’s National Planning Minister Trevor Manuel in public. Instead, the ANC and Cosatu now joined forces in condemning the attacks by the ANCYL and Malema on Gordhan. In politics, memories and loyalties are short, and a week even shorter.

At the same time, these developments were given momentum by the mobilisation of various forces against the controversial and outspoken Malema. He, it seems, had messed with just too many Zuma allies and too many constituencies, which could add up to a potential support base for Zuma.

Not only is a substantial faction in the Youth League endeavouring to oust Malema as its leader, but the SACP and Cosatu also have resolved to use everything at their disposal in the fight against Malema and his cronies and their premature “successor campaign” that aims to sideline communists and others in the Left.

Furthermore, women’s rights activists won an important battle against Malema recently when the Equality Court ruled against him over certain public remarks that he had made. That forced the ANC Women’s League, silent until now, to take notice of how the political winds are blowing.

Afrikaner rights groups also have mobilised against Malema over recent use of a racist song, “Kill the Boer, kill the farmer”. Further court action is pending on this matter.

Journalists have now entered the fray after intimidatory threats from the Youth League.

In various other quarters and organizations, sentiment has mounted strongly against Malema. All of this afforded the Zuma centre a window of opportunity.

That is not to say that Zuma is about to indulge in the kind of political bravery that would see him ditch Malema – still popular with the numerically powerful Youth League. But it did create the space for a healing process with the Left, much of which has been seen in meetings and statements over the past 10 days. Zuma was not about to sacrifice himself and the Alliance for the ANCYL and Malema.

This then led to Zuma’s tongue-lashing of Malema and the League at last week’s ANC national executive committee meeting, and the unprecedented step taken by Zuma to make public the contents of an internal presidential report to the NEC, which included the tongue-lashing.

The report and his simultaneous receipt of the Newsmaker of the Year award from the National Press Club, offered Zuma a good opportunity to buy back some face with the media, which lately had been lambasting him on a number of fronts.

Despite his own announcement that he was ready to serve a second term, Zuma also used the occasion to call for an end to premature campaigning for election to the ANC’s top jobs at its next national conference.

The report and the tongue-lashing were met with positive responses from the Left, particularly from Cosatu.

Zuma scored an important first victory in his campaign to make a come-back from his private life debacle, reunite his support bases and successfully launch his re-election campaign. Perhaps, after all, Zuma will be around much longer. But many a battle still lie ahead.

The three major, even decisive, arenas of performance where Zuma has yet to prove himself to those whose support he seeks in his re-election bid, are those of local government delivery, job creation and corruption and self-enrichment.