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Zuma now sure to be one-term president only
In December 2007, South Africa observed with keen interest developments at the African National Congress’ national policy conference in Polokwane. Not quite halfway to the next conference, minds already are turning to Bloemfontein in 2012. As a very early succession race continues to gain momentum, it seems increasingly likely that his own party will deny President Jacob Zuma a second term as the country’s First Citizen. There does not, however, seem to be any solid basis to expect that Zuma will be forced from office even before his current term expires. The damage to the ANC itself would simply be too great if that were to occur.
But Zuma’s personal affairs and his indecisive leadership – some say lack of leadership – as well as the current battle for control and supremacy among constituent organisations and factions inside the Alliance seem to have cemented his fate. Apparently, planning is under way already in the ANC and the government for a post-Bloemfontein 2012 scenario that will exclude Zuma as the various parties and factions begin shaping their plans and strategies.
To be fair, Zuma himself – at the time of his elevation to the top position – described himself as a one-term presient. It was Julius Malema, the leader of the ANC Youth League (ANCYL), who then said it did not matter what the president said; they would want him to serve a second term.
If anything, the unprecedented palace revolt of the 2007 Polokwane national conference, when former president Thabo Mbeki was unseated, has set the precedent for messy factional and successor battles within the ANC in the future.
And 2012 promises to be a bloody affair and it remains to be seen if the constituent organisations of the Alliance will be able to stay together until then, with the position of trade union federation Cosatu within the Alliance – as predicted by reports in "Leadership Intelligence Bulletin" – increasingly becoming untenable.
News from within the Alliance is that even Zuma’s current major supporting constituency, the ANCYL, is preparing to ask him to step down voluntarily at the end of his current term. Zuma’s only support in these quarters still comes from the ANCYL faction loyal to current leader, Malema.
However, the anti-Zuma camp will have carte blanche if the current attempts by the ANCYL to topple Malema succeed.
Joining the ANCYL in plans to have Zuma step down voluntarily is the ANC Women’s League, which to date has been uncharacteristically quiet on the current turf-, policy- and other wars, as well as on Zuma’s publicly condemned misdemeanours. The reason for that is not quite clear, but it perhaps could be attributed to a possible strategic decision by the Women’s League leadership not to become involved in the Alliance bunfight because of the league’s own factional frailties.
In the Zuma era, the Women’s League has lost much of the prominence it enjoyed under Mbeki.
Ironically, both the left/socialist and the centre/nationalists in the Alliance accuse Zuma of the same thing: that he is indecisive, shows no clear leadership, wishes to please everyone and, in the process, is advancing the agenda of the other faction.
The Left says he is not strong enough to fight the allegedly corrupt, self-enriching, tender-hunting centre nationalists, while the latter says he is too weak to fight off the communists and the trade unions.
While there are no clear contenders yet for succeeding Zuma, it is speculated widely that the nationalists, with the support of the Malema faction of the Youth League, are looking at replacing the ANC’s communist secretary-general Gwede Mantashe with former Youth League leader, Fikile Mbalula.
They are believed to want current ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe to become president of the ANC and the country – a position he filled with some distinction as caretaker after the ousting of Mbeki.
Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale is believed to be their candidate as deputy president, and Defence Minister Linidiwe Sisulu to become national chairperson.
It is early days, however, and one would do well to remember what former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson said in 1964: “A week can be a long time in politics.”
