The political landscape is changing forever

Only a few weeks ago it was assessed here that the political scene in South Africa is in a transition to new dividing, more natural, ideological lines. The process seems to have come into full swing and the country is in the midst of a political storm that, as was expected, is a messy affair as different power bases within the ruling alliance battle it out for dominance. It is likely to take some time and to be filled by high drama at times, but the political landscape is in the process of changing forever.

The debacle around the wealth and lifestyle, which unfolded over the last few days, around the leader of the ANC’s Youth League, Julius Malema, is but a symptom of a much greater battle for control, the seeds of which was largely sown at the ruling alliance’s policy conference at Polokwane at the end of 2008 when widely disparate groups seemingly united behind president Jacob Zuma. (For full report click here)

In the eye of the present storm it is easy to mainly focus on the individual personalities who happen to dominate the scene. At the heart of it all, however, one should recognise the process of the crumbling of the ruling alliance as we have become to know it until recently and the real dividing lines around issues like especially the economic system that should rule the nation’s household and how economic resources should be allocated to constituent groups within the household .

Sure, selfish motives like the personal accumulation of wealth play an important role, but the real choices are more about the fundamental cornerstones of how society organises itself. That is the ball one should try to keep your eye on.

As the process unfolds, one should not miss the importance of symptoms like the trade union federation, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) threatening the government, of which it in at least appearance is a partner with a general strike if resources are not deployed to their liking. (For full report click here)

This strike, if it should indeed become a reality later this year or when it comes at a later stage, could become the front of the final showdown, as the so called Winter of discontent became for Prime Minister Thatcher of Britain some four decades ago.

Revelations around his personal life has weakened the position of President Zuma as the national leader of both the country and the ruling alliance, but the increasing talk that his power base is disintegrating around him goes much deeper.

The array of power brokers that aligned at Polokwane to elect him to his present position has started lining-up in a succession battle and is riven with economic policy fissures. The fact is that he does not command an independent and consolidated power base of his own and personal charisma can only go that far to keep things together when ideologies start lining-up to battle it out for dominance.

The battle is complicated and rendered particularly messy by both the fact that there are not fully integrated structures in place to channel and regulate leadership fights across the alliance and by the lack of a sound system of regulating the access to state resources by political leaders.

Indicative of this last statement is the fact that when his apologists claim that Julius Malema has not broken any law in accumulating his apparent sizable wealth overnight, they are most probably 100% correct. Unless he has placed himself on the wrong side of the taxman or there were irregularities in the awarding and/or execution of tenders, the changes are slim that we will see him on court any time soon.

Symptomatic of an organisation at war with itself, it is almost certain that the stories about Malema’s wealth and lifestyle came from within the alliance. It is even more unlikely that in the tit-for-tat battle raging this would be the last time something like this happens within the alliance.

Can the situation be turned around? Judged on the basis of the underlying driving forces and the amount of bad blood already spilled, one has to say that the point of no-return already has been reached.

It is more likely that other formations, organisations and institutions on the periphery of government and interest groups the broader society will get sucked into the battle as they lobby for outcomes they perceive to be in their own interest.

It has become a time to be very careful and to concentrate on one’s own core business, whatever that might be.