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Long-term outlook has changed dramatically
President Jacob Zuma’s latest sex scandal threatens completely to overshadow his State of the Nation Address on Thursday, despite the importance of a number of issues he should be addressing. The scandal seems to significantly have weakened Zuma’s position in the ruling ANC Alliance, with all Alliance parties toning down their reactions and not coming to his defence. In the longer term, it seems a second term as president is now no longer a given. However, should this or any other scandal cut short Zuma’s presidency, for South Africa the sting in the tale of this saga lies in the question of who could succeed him.
With the effects of the global economic crisis and South Africa’s recession still central; with the eyes of the world on South Africa’s hosting the Fifa Soccer World Cup; with a damaging nationalisation debate raging; with the government having failed to deliver on its promised job creation; and with local government in a state of paralysis, to name but a few issues – Thursday’s speech promises to be vital.
Unfortunately for Zuma and the government, much of what he will have to say will be overshadowed completely by the ongoing national rage and public outcry over his personal conduct; conduct that seriously is affecting his position of power within the ruling African National Congress (ANC).
There are, however, also those in the ANC who are closing ranks around their president, rejecting the outcry and the accusations, causing critics to say this is further proof of a Zuma-fied ANC selling out on its own core values and principles.
So far, Zuma has responded to only one call, namely that he apologises to the nation for his behaviour. This he has done, albeit while attempting to minimise the gravity of his conduct by trying to shrug off the outrage by calling it a private affair.
In 2007, Zuma had to undertake to senior ANC colleagues that he would desist from any conduct in his private life that could subject the ANC to another scandal such as that associated with the rape case. His reneging on that undertaking and the latest embarrassment caused to the party is said to have angered senior ANC leaders. So serious was the situation that Zuma was forced last week to withdraw from his public engagements for two days to allow the ANC to implement damage control.
The National Interfaith Leadership Council (NILC) declared that Zuma’s apology should be accepted, he should be forgiven and the country should move on. However, the NILC was formed by an influential close confidante of Zuma, namely Rhema Bible Church’s Pastor Ray McCauley, and others from the religious sector seeking greater political favour with the current political power elite. And a number of the 20-odd council members – at last count, at least four – are ANC MPs.
Zuma’s apology is his third, the other two having been in connection with his sexual behaviour as exposed by the 2006 rape case, and his statement that gays should be beaten up.
While none of Zuma’s most vocal supporters in the ANC Alliance has criticised him in public, there has been private criticism aplenty, and a marked toning down in public 'support' for him by organisations such as the ANC Youth League (ANCYL), Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party (SACP), while none has come to his defence.
Then there is the question of international perceptions. In all South Africa’s major trading partners, this kind of behaviour by a president would promptly have led to his dismissal.
In inner ANC circles, there has been much talk these last few days that another scandal would, or should, be the end of Zuma; that the party cannot afford any more such scandals; and that Zuma should serve out only his current term and forget about a second.
It remains to be seen how this will all pan out. Should Zuma be prevented from serving a second term, or should another scandal cause his early departure from the political stage, the question arises: who will succeed him?
Against a backdrop of the current factionalism and tensions in the Alliance, particularly the struggle between the centre nationalists and the left-wing communists; and given the early emergence of succession struggles in the ANC which threaten to dwarf those that occurred between Zuma and Mbeki in 2007 – there are no clear contenders who appear to have sufficient support for the job.
Nominees at this stage could be anyone from Tokyo Sexwale, Kgalema Motlanthe and Gwede Mantashe, to Blade Nzimande, Julius Malema and a host of other equally unlikely candidates.
For South Africa, this is the real sting in the tale of the Zuma saga. (For a full report, click here)
Economivc prosperity will jump by leaps and bounds and Apartheid will in future not be blamed for all the ills that have befallen our country such as rampant crime, coruption, poligamy etc.