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A packed year lies aheadBelow, we have listed most of the major political events and issues to watch this year. Many of the events will be used by political parties, other organisations and interest groups to further specific issues or their own particular agendas. Others may trigger developments or decisions that could impact on South Africa both within a local, and international context.
All in all, it should make for a packed political year ahead.
The first half of the year is likely to be overshadowed by the final stages of preparations for the 2010 Fifa Soccer World Cup, while the focus will shift during the second half to local government issues in view of next year’s local elections, as well as the post-Soccer World Cup economic situation in South Africa. Expectations are that there will be a slowdown in the post-infrastructure investment, but this may be offset to some extent by post-recession recovery gaining momentum.
Parliament is also likely to be the scene of some stormy action this year as a number of far-reaching and transformation-driven bills are set to be tabled. Given a shortened legislative programme last year due to the April general election and the resultant new government being structured, this should see a far busier legislative programme. Much of it will give effect to ANC policies formulated at the Polokwane National Conference as articulated in the ANC’s election manifesto last year.
The following are important dates and events to watch:
· President Jacob Zuma released the ANC’s national executive committee statement on the ANC’s 98th anniversary on 8 January.
· The latest firearms amnesty started on 11 January, and expires on 11 April.
· Parliamentary committees start working from 25 January.
· President Jacob Zuma delivers his second State of the Nation address at the opening of Parliament on 11 February.
· Debate on the president’s address on 15 February with his reply the following day.
· Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to deliver his Budget Speech plus introduction of Division of Revenue Bill, tabling of Fiscal Framework and Appropriation Bill on
17 February.
· Government departments table their strategic plans in Parliament during March.
· 50th anniversary of Sharpeville shootings on 21 March.
· Parliamentary debates on budget votes from 13 to 23 April.
· The Fifa Soccer World Cup kicksoff on 11 June.
· Political parties start formal preparations for local government elections next year during June/July.
· The Freedom Charter celebrates its 55th anniversary on 26 June – to coincide with Soccer World Cup in South Africa.
· ANC to hold important National General Council in September to review work done since the Polokwane National Conference and plot the way forward.
· In September, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan represents his 2010 medium-term budget policy statement.
· The Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) celebrates its 25th anniversary on 1 December.
Some of the major political issues to be watched this year include the following:
· Economic policy: Government economic policy positioning and control within the context of the political alliance between the African National Congress (ANC), the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the SA Communist Party (SACP). While the ANC’s left wing allies will continue pushing for a leftward shift and a greater direct say in policy and budget matters, investors will continue finding comfort in the ongoing influence former Finance Minister Trevor Manuel will exert through his role as National Planning minister and in the proposed National Planning Commission which have President Zuma’s backing.
· Local government: The overhaul of local government to enhance central political control, accountability and service delivery ahead of next year’s local government elections and to avoid further popular protests in townships around the country, is likely to be taken forward this year.
· Unemployment: The ongoing high unemployment rate in South Africa, the fate of labour brokering and other labour policy issues. So far, government has failed to reach its job-creation targets and has tried used spin doctoring to hide this failure behind the temporary employment opportunities of the expanded public works programme. Labour may use this issue in its other political battles with the government.
· Rand and inflation: The strength of the rand and pressure for intervention, coupled with the debate around inflation targeting. The Left will again pressurise government in this regard and, as promised by government and new Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus, formal debates and consultations on the issue among the ruling alliance partners are likely to get off the ground.
· Budget deficit: Budget deficit fears are increasing after figures recently released showed how tax revenue for the eight months to the end of November had been ravaged by the impact of the recession on company profits and the proceeds from value-added tax, yielding R26bn less than the same period last year. In October, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan estimated that tax revenue for the year would be about R70bn lower than the February 2009 budget forecast. The state of affairs in this regard will impact seriously on a number of other issues mentioned here.
· Crime and security: The ongoing high crime rate and security issues, especially in view of the forthcoming Soccer World Cup, will continue to be placed under the spotlight, especially following the attack on the Togo national soccer team in Angola where the African Cup of Nations tournament is being staged. Township protests around service delivery and other local issues will also continue posing a challenge. And the ANC’s left wing allies will be pushing government hard on the issues of corruption, self-enrichment and extravagant expenditure, despite some of their own leaders being among the culprits.
· ANC alliance: Tensions over a number of issues will continue to subject the ruling alliance of the ANC, SACP and Cosatu to unprecedented stresses that threaten the continued alliance. Much of the government’s handling of some of the above issues – among others – will also determine how President Zuma will manage to strike a further balance between competing forces with the ruling alliance. Zuma will struggle to continue a difficult balancing act that if it falls apart, could shake the country badly. In his message on 8 January, President Zuma stressed the necessity of unity in the ANC alliance.
· Provincial system: Together with the proposed overhaul of local government, the ANC is likely to move further this year on a possible overhaul or even the scrapping of the current system of provinces and provincial government.
· Single public service: The government’s plan to create a single public service across all three tiers of government is likely to meet with strong resistance from opposition parties who see this as another step towards the centralisation of the state and political control.
· Judiciary: A revised Superior Courts Bill will be resubmitted to Parliament following extensive consultation with stakeholders. The initial plan to transfer the administration of the courts from the judiciary to the justice minister and thus establish political control, has been revised. The new bill will also provide for the specialist Labour Court to be amalgamated into the High Court and for the Labour Appeals Court into the Supreme Court of Appeal. But some strenuous further debate on these issues are still expected as opposition suspicions of the ANC seeking to establish political control over the judiciary are far from dead, especially after some of the controversial judicial appointments made by President Zuma last year.
· Education: There is much pressure on government to overhaul South Africa’s basic education system, especially after the latest round of dismal matric results. It seems there will have to be a fundamental restructuring or shift and that merely conjuring up a further multitude of fancy-sounding programmes, plans and curricula while continually increasing the education budget without any positive results will no longer do. Government has already signalled its intention of moving in this direction, although its recent statements have been rather ambiguous. However, at the same time, driven by ideological short sightedness and race politics, Higher Education and Training Minister Blade Nzimande seems set on taking higher education down a similar disastrous road.
· Health: The spread of HIV/Aids continues posing a major challenge to government. The World Cup Soccer event could serve to focus further international attention on this. In the light of the World Cup, government will also be hard pressed to deal visibly and efficiently with other health and related issues such as the spread of cholera, safe drinking water, TB, malaria, the high road accident rate, and more. The proposed National Health Insurance (NHI) plan will also be driven further by government this year, but many believe it is a dead duck as South Africa lacks the funds, infrastructure and medical manpower to support such a plan. Health and education are among the five top priorities the ANC and government set itself in the run-up to the April 2009 general elections.
· Rural development: In tandem with much of what develops on the economic front, rural development, thus far the stepchild of ANC rule since 1994, will come under the spotlight more strongly. Economic conditions and the state of government finances and among other things will dictate just how much action is actually initiated. More likely than not, this issue will largely remain in the realm of talk-shops for much of the year, but it will be on the agenda nonetheless.
· Land reform: Land reform continues to be a source of concern with the latent potential to trigger serious political pressures. The process remains slow and poorly managed by an incompetent bureaucracy. Instead of addressing the inadequacies of the government entities tasked with land reform, government’s tendency is to intervene in other areas, particularly expropriation. As a result, a serious parliamentary battle lies ahead when Public Works Minister Geoff Doidge is likely to introduce his new Expropriation Bill,, which has been amended to pass constitutional scrutiny, later this year. Government believes this law will speed up land acquisition and distribution, while opposition parties believe it paves the way to gross abuse and land seizures.
· Energy and parastatals: South Africa’s severely burdened energy infrastructure and delivery will continue making the headlines this year, especially if Eskom’s further attempts at getting massive tariff increases is approved, for which public hearings have just started. But it is not only Eskom that finds itself in a sticky mess – most other parastatals are also in serious difficulties and require a complete overhaul. Developments in this arena will to a large degree also determine what happens on the rural development front.
· Industrial policy and developmental state: Further developments are anticipated this year in finally devising and implementing a substantial new industrial policy for South Africa. Trade and Industry Minister, Rob Davies, has said that South Africa is firmly of the view that industrial development must be at the centre of efforts to overcome poverty and underdevelopment – key issues of the current government in promoting the developmental state.
