The Dinokeng Scenarios

Thirty-five eminent South Africans earlier this year produced what is known as the Dinokeng Scenarios - three different, possible futures for South Africa. It contained the dire warning that, unless all South Africans pull together and engage with each other and the government, and vice versa, the country faced a very bleak future.

In the next edition of Leadership we ask various members of the scenarios team to put their money where their mouths are and tell us what each of them is going to do to realise the most positive outcome for South Africa.

Their diagnosis - apart from listing a number of national "assets" and positive achievements - paints a somewhat gloomy picture of where South Africa will be after 15 years of democracy. Of the three possible outcomes predicted for South Africa from this point on, only one, called Walk Together, holds a bright future.

In this scenario, the citizenry engages with a collaborative, accountable government, sharing a common national vision cutting across narrow self-interest. If South Africa went the route of the other two outcomes, the future indeed looks bleak.

The Dinokeng Scenarios project came about in response to the pressing problems facing South Africa after 15 years of democracy. It was facilitated by Old Mutual and Nedbank who wanted the initiative to be conducted in the public's interest.

The 35 members of the scenario team included Miriam Altman, Frans Baleni, Ann Bernstein, Nkosinathi Biko, Cheryl Carolus, Angela Coetzee, Ryan Coetzee, Paul Hanratty, Haniff Hoosen, Moemedi Kepadisa, Reuel Khoza, Kallie Kriel, Antjie Krog, Mary Malete, Daniel Mminele, Namhla Mniki, Aaron Motsoaledi, Jay Naidoo, Yogan Naidoo, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, Thandi Nontenja, Thami ka Plaatjie, Sonja Sebotsa, Raenette Taljaard, Mathatha Tsedu, Sim Tshabalala, Musa Zondi as well as six convenors led by Dr Mamphela Ramphele, a former vice-chancellor of the University of Cape Town and director on numerous boards, that included Anglican Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, Old Mutual Europe regional director Bob Head, social activist and wife of Nelson Mandela, Graça Machel, SA Breweries executive director Dr Vincent Maphai and mining executive Rick Menell. The team was further complimented by several members of a secretariat including Adam Kahane who was also very involved in an earlier South African scenario exercise, the Mont Fleur Scenarios of the early nineties.

The team's diagnosis of current South Africa found that, on the positive side, there was South Africa's successful democratic process and its Constitution; an independent and robust media; no approaching tendencies towards ethnic or racial cleansing; civilian control over the army; a historically active and engaged civil society; the Polokwane Conference of the ANC in 2007and the subsequent formation of the Congress of the People (COPE); and the country's economic and social achievements among others.

On the negative side the team noted liabilities such as rising political intolerance; a leadership that has failed in respect of crime, accountability, corruption, a competent public service, nepotism and greed; racial polarisation; urban and rural poverty and inequality; failures in the education and health systems; macro-economic conditions that include the spill-over of the global economic crisis and South Africa's growth slowing from 5% in 2004-2007 to 3% in 2008; the massive skills shortage; high unemployment; and high crime.

The team concluded that underpinning the stark reality of our many problems after 15 years of democracy, are our legacies. These include a lack of inclusive leadership; lack of a common sense of nationhood; the exile dominance of the ruling party which ignored the skills and talents of many South Africans; a culture of mediocrity and a weak state born out of cronyism, corruption and nepotism; failure to fully confront the inherited cultures of racism, sexism and liberation ideology; and deep structural flaws going beyond 1994.

Finally, in trying to understand what was causing these problems, the analysis of the Dinokeng team was that South Africa was experiencing the symptoms of three inter-related, underlying trends.  Firstly, citizens have, since 1994, largely disengaged (or been co-opted into government or party structures) and have become increasingly dependent on the government; the state's capacity to address the country's challenges is weak and declining; and leaders of all sectors have become increasingly self-interested, unethical, and unaccountable.

The scenario team concluded that in order for South Africa to realise the kind of ideal future spelt out in Walk Together, all three of the present trends identified by the team in their diagnosis would have to be reversed, that is, citizens would have to re-engage, the capacity of the state must be strengthened and leaders from all sectors have to rise above their narrow self-interests and contribute purposefully to building our nation.

From this diagnosis of South Africa's present situation, the Dinokeng team constructed three possible scenarios for the future spanning the period 2009 - 2020:

Walk Apart -  In this scenario the state is corrupt, ineffective and unaccountable. Economic constraints worsen. The citizens are distrusting, disengage and form their own self-protective power blocs. The gap between government and citizens widens. The government meets popular protests and unrest with brutal repression, leading to decay and disintegration.

Walk behind - The state uses central planning and co-ordination for accelerated development and delivery. The state bases its interventionist approach on assumed global trends and is given a powerful mandate by the electorate. Private initiative by business and civil society is crowded out. The risks for the country are unsustainable debt and an increasingly authoritarian state.

Walk together -   In this ideal win-win scenario an active citizenry engages with a collaborative government. Government listens to delivery demands, is accountable and depends on quality political leadership and on citizens organising themselves and engaging it. A common national vision cuts across economic self-interest in the short-term. In this difficult scenario strong leadership from all sectors is required amidst robust contestation over many issues.

Finally, the scenario team identified a number of key messages for South Africa that emerged from this exercise. Firstly, the team says, failure to recognise critical social and economic challenges, especially unemployment, poverty, safety and security, education, and health, now exacerbated by a global economic crisis, will lead to rapid disintegration and decline. Secondly, state-led development will fail in the absence of capacity, while pervasive state intervention will breed popular dependency and will suppress private initiative. And lastly, critical challenges can only be addressed if citizens' groups, business, labour and broader civil society actively engage with the state to improve delivery and enforce an accountable government.

The ideal scenario of Walk Together can only succeed if citizens re-engage; if the capacity of the state is strengthened; and if leaders from all sectors rise above their narrow self-interests and contribute purposefully to building the nation.

(To download the complete scenarios report or a summary, go to:  http://www.dinokengscenarios.co.za/