SA’s power-play problems in a divided continent

If anything, the bid by South Africa’s Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to be elected chairperson of the African Union’s Commission, or secretariat, has shown up two things: an acrimoniously divided African continent, and South Africa’s anxious bid for political leadership in the continent which continues to be frustrated. To some extent it also exposed Western meddling in the affairs of Africa.

Dlamini-Zuma failed to upstage the only other candidate for the job, Gabon’s Jean Ping, the incumbent who was seeking another term. He too failed to secure the required two-thirds majority. The position remains up for grabs with a second round of voting now scheduled for June at the next African Union (AU) summit in Malawi.

It has suggested in diplomatic circles that southern African countries may try to persuade South Africa to find an alternative candidate to Dlamini-Zuma while persuading Ping to withdraw before the next round, will be in Africa’s best interest.

While Dlamini-Zuma is seen as having failed in her bid, she also succeeded in  mobilising enough votes to prevent Ping from being re-elected. There is no telling whether she might not be more successful in the following round of voting.

The position at the AU is, if not the most influential, next in line to the mostly ceremonial chairperson annually elected on a rotational basis.

Meanwhile some small consolation for South Africa has been the election of ANC chairperson and former deputy president Baleka Mbete to the AU’s African Peer Review Forum, a body that aims to strengthen and improve governance on the continent.

Series of setbacks

Dlamini-Zuma’s failure to be elected, despite some heavyweight international backing, is the latest in a series of political and diplomatic setbacks endured across the continent by the Zuma administration.

These have included:

• The failure to impose political solutions to conflicts in Libya and Côte d’Ivoire;
• The settlement in Zimbabwe starting to fall apart;
• A much-criticised financial bailout of Swaziland’s monarch not leading to the hoped-for reforms;
• The good work of South Africa’s leading role in the peaceful secession of South Sudan now being threatened by a looming oil conflict;
• And an uneasy relationship with neighbour Botswana worsened by the provocative remarks of the ANC’s suspended youth leader.

A recent decision by South Africa to open embassies in more countries can also be seen as part of its desire to play a bigger role in African and global politics. This was underscored by President Zuma’s recent plea at the UN Security Council for Africa to have a permanent seat at the Security Council.

Essentially the chairmanship of the AU Commission would have secured for South Africa the kind of leading role in Africa that Pretoria seeks in keeping with its status as Africa’s biggest economy and its major peace-keeping role in various conflicts across the continent. South Africa has made substantial financial, military, humanitarian and diplomatic contributions across Africa and would like to see a bigger return on its investment.

It would also have boosted its international standing in line with its recent admission to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA) club as well as being part of IBSA (India, Brazil and SA) and the G20 along with its temporary membership and chairmanship of the United Nations Security Council.

Underlining divisions?

So eager was Pretoria to secure this African leadership position that it risked this division and controversy by breaking with the custom of the AU Commission’s chairmanship being held by someone from one of the smaller African states. This custom was developed particularly to avoid conflict between larger states already in political and economic competition with each other.

The divisions were further fed by West Africa as an economic bloc and countries like Nigeria and Kenya also competing for recognition of their growing economic and political roles in Africa.

Western meddling

The election race also showed up the extent of Western meddling in Africa’s affairs and the way Africa features in the larger global political picture.

A stronger AU role for South Africa would probably in future prevent the kind of dismissal the AU suffered from Western powers when it advocated a negotiated, inclusive settlement in Libya rather than the aggressive military “solution” pursued by France, Britain and the US.

France, having sought to extend its influence and role in Africa, especially in Francophone Africa and seeking greater access to resources such as oil, played a leading role in Libya.

Along with other Western nations, France in the recent past has frequently been irked by some of South Africa’s more controversial diplomatic decisions and its closeness to China, whose influence in Africa is growing by leaps and bounds. In fact, last week’s AU meeting took place in the AU’s brand-new US$200-million high-rise headquarters built and donated by China.

France, for example, was angered by South Africa’s support for former Ivory Coast president Laurent Gbagbo who refused to hand over power to his rival, current president Alassane Ouattara, after an election. Gbagbo was eventually forced to surrender after military intervention in which France played a central role. It therefore came as little surprise that French President Nicolas Sarkozy openly backed Ping for re-election and is said to have been infuriated by South Africa’s candidacy. Gabon is a former French colony and Ping a well-known operator in Paris. His initial candidature in 2008 was also backed by France, the Francophone bloc and the Economic Community of Central African States.

In an attempt to counter the French influence, South African officials secured the endorsement of the EU foreign policy chief, who served in Gordon Brown’s Labour cabinet in Britain.Although they were allies in Libya, relations between France and Britain recently soured around a new European Union treaty deal.

One thing is sure though, before the next round of AU voting in June, there will be many side-deals concluded in Africa’s corridors of power --  and further afield.