Is this the final curtain-call?

A decision to be taken by President Mugabe in a few days’ time holds serious consequences for a very shaky coalition government in Zimbabwe. Observers are already predicting that it might be the final curtain-call for Zimbabwe’s government of national unity as the terms of office for the Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander General Constantine Chiwenga and Police Commissioner-General Augustine Chihuri expire at the end of January.

Also expiring at the end of February will be the terms of office for the Prisons Services Commissioner, retired Major-General Paradzai Zimondi; Air Force Commander Air Marshal Perence Shiri and Zimbabwe National Army Commander Lieutenant-General Philip Sibanda.

These men are all fiercely loyal to President Mugabe and are important and influential members belonging to the hard-line faction within Zanu-PF as demonstrated by their actions and public statements over the last few years.

The opposition accused them of political polarisation and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai blamed the generals of instituting a “silent coup” by running a “parallel administration.”

Controversially the service chiefs have declared in public that they will never accept the leader of the MDC as president and have shown their contempt for the Prime Minister by not saluting him or showing him the necessary courtesy at official functions.

Indispensable

Support from all his service chiefs is indispensable for President Mugabe to stay in power and in turn they are allowed considerable freedom and autonomy and they often act as if they are untouchable and above the law.

This attitude has led to anger and resentment in opposition circles.

The opposition laments that the service chiefs are persistently transgressing their mandate and accuses them of practising party politics favouring and advancing Zanu-PF at a time in the history of Zimbabwe when an unbiased and neutral stance could have made all the difference. Instead, they are neglecting their constitutional duties and are guilty of propagating intimidation and violence against the people of Zimbabwe who chose to support the opposition.

Fear for the repercussions

It is a commonly held view in Zimbabwe that the strongest resistance to a truly open and democratic political dispensation comes from within the security establishment and it is not difficult to understand why.

Fear for what might happen should justice be brought to those that were instrumental in keeping a repressive and at times a bloody regime in power is an incentive strong enough for the service heads to try and prevent Zimbabwe’s people from exercising their right of choice under conditions that are free and fair.

Even if he holds less radical views, President Mugabe has little choice but to go along. Not only is his fate closely linked to that of his service chiefs but his political survival depends heavily on the unwavering support and loyalty of the security forces.

Presidential ambitions

It is rumoured, although unsubstantiated, that general Chiwenga, is entertaining presidential aspirations.

It is also rumoured that he can be linked to the highly suspicious death of Solomon Mujuru who burned to death while alone in his farmhouse when it inexplicably caught fire in August 2011.

Mujuru, also known by his war name Rex Nhongo, was Zimbabwe’s most decorated post-independence army general and the country’s first black army chief.

Mujuru was not only a highly respected military leader but he later became very popular and influential in the higher echelons of Zanu-PF where he was widely considered as a kingmaker in the party.

Before his unexpected death Mujuru was prominently active as a leader in the more moderate faction of Zanu-PF. Not only was he more accommodating towards the opposition MDC but he was one of the few, if not only, senior Zanu-PF member willing to criticise President Mugabe in public. This, it is said, was as a result of his earlier role in securing Mugabe his victory in the ultimate political leadership battle in the pre-independence days.

Mujuru’s more moderate political views were anathema to the Zanu-PF hard-liners and he was considered a threat and a danger. With him now out of the way the chances ofJoyce Mujuru, his wife and currently Zimbabwe’s vice-president, to succeed President Mugabe,have taken a serious blow.

Opposition demands

The active involvement of the security forces and their bosses in party politics is reason why the two MDC formations are demanding an overhaul and restructuring of the Zimbabwean security sector. A satisfactory restructuring that will remove the security forces from the political arena and stop them from enforcing Zanu–PF policy is for the MDC a prerequisite for the holding of free and fair elections.

Irrespective if President Mugabe reappoints the service chiefs or not , his decision is going to have dire consequences and if unresolved might even derail the current process and terminate the Global Political Agreement (GPA).

Under the GPA conditions it is expected of President Mugabe to discuss and get approval from his MDC coalition partners before senior appointments in government. To date President Mugabe has mostly ignored this obligation. There is general consensus that he will once again ignore the agreement and will reappoint the service chiefs or replace them with candidates of his choice without consultation.

According to a senior Zanu-PF spokesperson the ruling that Prime Minister Tsvangirai must be consulted on all key appointments in government applies only to bureaucrats such as ambassadors and permanent secretaries but not security and service chiefs. This is a no go area and one matter where nothing will change.

Controversial decision

The issue of reappointing current service chiefs comes hot on the heels of a controversial decision by President Mugabe to promote an army general implicated in rhino poaching, partisan food distribution, election rigging and murder; Douglas Nyikayaramba, nicknamed Mr Fix It, was recently promoted to Major-General.

Nyikayaramba allegedly played a key role in rigging the 2002 presidential elections.  At the time he was the Chief Executive Officer of the then Electoral Supervisory Commission (ESC).

In June 2008 Nyikayaramba was one of the over 200 senior army officers deployed throughout Zimbabwe to co-ordinate the brutal ‘Operation Mavhotera Papi’ (Where did you vote?)

Last year Nyikayaramba made headlines when he called for President Mugabe to be declared life president. He also described Prime Minister Tsvangirai as a major national security threat rather than a political one and openly vowed that he would not allow Tsvangirai to win any election.

Opposition reaction

The MDC, expecting President Mugabe to make the reappointments without prior consultation, have already gone public to declare that they will not only veto the President but would also fight Mugabe legally and politically. If no satisfactory agreement can be reached both MDC formations agreed to take the matter to the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) to resolve.

To them the persons to be reappointed are cut from the same cloth as Major-General Douglas Nyikayaramba and argue that these reappointments will only mean trouble for the next election in Zimbabwe.

With most expecting an impasse to follow on President Mugabe’s selection of the next group of service heads it seems inevitable that President Zuma as SADC’s appointed negotiator and his support team will have to reschedule their diaries and appointments as they will be needed in Harare.