Does crime go up as the economy goes down?

The long-standing debate about whether a downturn in the economy leads to an upturn in crime seems like being settled in the streets of Athens. European Union-imposed belt-tightening measures in exchange for a sovereign debt bailout has seen the income of the average Greek-household drop by 50% and suicide and crime rates are on the rise.

Athens, which was already home to half of Greece’s 11-million-strong population, has seen a massive influx of migrants and has been the worst-hit by soaring crime, lawlessness and pressure on social services.

Dirty streets in the centre of the city are congested with drug dealers and locals claim that cases of drug trafficking, prostitution, murder, theft, burglaries, petty crime and illegal immigration have all increased since the economy started to seriously contract.

"The city's historic centre and other major areas are suffering desertification, all manner of criminal activity and manifestations of violence, insecurity, lawlessness, the impoverishment of significant numbers of people -- both native inhabitants and foreign nationals -- illegal prostitution and illegal drug trading," the Athens City Council said in a recent statement.

Research done in 2009 for the US Congress came to the conclusion that it is not possible to draw a direct link between economic downturns and increased crime rates.

According to a 2008-report in the New York Times “… every recession since the late ‘50s has been associated with an increase in crime and, in particulate, property crime and robbery,” said Richard Risenfeld, a sociologist at the University of Missouri.

According to a recent report in Germany’s Spiegelonline murders in Greece have more than doubled since 2006, with the annual figure rising from 83 to 175 in 2010 according to police statistics. In the Athens region, homicides rose 2.2 percent during the first half of 2011 to a total of 54. Murders nationwide totalled 92 during the same period. Home break-ins jumped to 90,936 in 2010, up from 72,658 in 2009. This year, home break-ins totalled 48,268 for the first six months, on track to set new records. Extortions, armed robbery, scams, car thefts and other categories also saw increases.

"There are many small crimes happening in Athens on streets, in houses and businesses where people don't go to the police immediately," said Sakis Tsaoussis, president and CEO of Pyrsos Security, one of the largest security firms in Athens. He says ATM kidnappings are also on the rise, crimes in which perpetrators force their victims to withdraw money from a bank cash machine.

"Almost a quarter of the Athenian city centre is now considered off-limits by night for those unwilling to risk their valuables and, in some cases, their personal security," wrote Ioannis Michaletos, in a report for Balkanalysis.com, a site that provides research on Greece. "Athens has become arguably the worst city in the European Union (especially within the euro-zone countries) in terms of personal safety."

Ordinary Greek citizens have been among Europe’s lowest wage-earners even before the start of the austerity process and many are now stretched to breaking point. Not surprisingly, suicides have also risen, with help lines reporting a deluge of calls. There were 5 000 calls registered in the first eight months of this year compared to

2500 during the whole of last year.

As was the case in South Africa with increased crime rates, it has led to a boom for private security firms in Greece.

If the debt crisis in the euro zone cannot be arrested soon, countries like Italy tumble and countries like France come under serious strain, the euro zone could quite conceivably implode in the not too distant future. The globe could

be pushed into a deep and protracted recession.

If this happens, the developments around crime- and suicide-rates in the streets of Athens just might become the experience of cities across the globe. Authorities would do well to do some contingency planning.

A clinical psychologist Dr. Jeffrey Gardere told Fox News in the US during a 2009-interview in the midst of the then economic downturn: “We see that there is a group that is called the Worried Well. Those people are suffering ritght now. Those people are going through financial stress and are having real issues in maintaining their homes and maintaining their sanity.”

Early intervention could prevent senseless crime, but someone has to notice and then act, he said.