The ANC: divisions and succession – Part 2

Last week we wrote about how President Jacob Zuma’s decisions to release the Donen Commission’s report on the Oilgate affair, to fire two ministers and suspend South Africa’s police chief, and to establish a commission of Inquiry into the arms deal may or may not impact on his chances of serving a second term as president. This week  we look at what role if any ANC Youth League (ANCYL) president Julius Malema and his disciplinary hearing, as well as some related developments may play out in the succession race.

What seems to be becoming increasingly clear is that President Zuma’s decisions around the Oilgate report and the arms deal Inquiry will have little or no impact on the leadership elections – and Zuma’s chances of re-election – at the ANC’s elective national conference to be held in Mangaung in the Free State in December next year. Speculations in this regard it would seem was off the mark.

In both cases, it seems rather that pending court cases may have influenced his decision more than anything else.  As we pointed out, there seems to have been no sinister motive behind the delay in the release of the Donen-report and it also does not negatively implicate two said to be possible Zuma challengers, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe and Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale.

As to the commission of inquiry into alleged corruption in the strategic arms procurement deals to be chaired by Supreme Court of Appeal Judge Willie Seriti, its outcome can hardly impact on the election of ANC leaders next year. The commission is scheduled to complete its work only about a year after the elective conference.

Meanwhile, whether by design or not, the ANCYL’s Malema continues to find himself cast in the role of possible king-maker apart from continuing to be a highly divisive factor in the ruling political alliance.

Many saw last week’s march against poverty and unemployment as part of the perceived current stand-off between Malema and President Zuma and the ANC Youth League’s quest to topple Zuma and ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe at the ruling party’s elective national conference next year. (See our separate analysis on this.)

The substantial turnout of marchers may have caused unease among those senior leaders in the ANC who hoped to soon be rid of Malema, and may have demonstrated once again to Zuma that Malema has substantial popular legitimacy. The perceived show of support for Malema may also make the task of those conducting his disciplinary hearing more complicated if they have been considering expelling him from the ANC.

This could put Malema and his ANCYL in a strong position to rally support for their presidential candidate, namely the current deputy president, Motlanthe. That could also see ANC secretary-general Mantashe replaced with Malema’s ally and former ANCYL president, the current Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula.

So nervous is the top leadership of the ANC over the succession issue that they extracted an undertaking from Malema that it would not be raised during last week’s march before giving the ANC’s blessing to the march.

A key factor in the succession race would be to whom the powerful Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the ANC Women’s League (ANCWL) give their support. In 2007 it was mainly Cosatu, the ANCYL and a large part of the ANCWL that worked together to replace Mbeki with Zuma.

But like Zuma the positions of both Malema and Mbalula may be somewhat in jeopardy themselves. Mbalula has been implicated in a sex scandal that could well impact on his career options...a position in which Zuma has also found himself on occasion.

And, according to a report in the Sunday Independent, Malema is facing arrest as a probe into his financial affairs and alleged tender irregularities in Limpopo by the special police Hawks unit has apparently uncovered a case for Malema to answer.

Such a development would make it easier for the ANC to conclude Malema’s disciplinary hearing by suspending or expelling him, and could help to minimise the resultant political fallout and contain public reaction from Malema supporters.

As mentioned, the ANCYL wants Motlanthe to replace Zuma, but if Motlanthe is indeed available he is not telling. And, as the serving deputy state- and ANC president he is hardly in a position to do any lobbying for support at this point in time.

Meanwhile Sexwale, whose name consistently crops up as one who will challenge Zuma next year for the presidency, is also not openly admitting to such aspirations at this stage. But his actions seem to suggest that he is indeed in the running.

In 2009 he did make his ambitions to become president known before throwing in his lot with Zuma in the face of imminent defeat. The ANC, it is said in some circles, would like to see him as deputy president under Motlanthe, preparing him to become president at a later stage. Some say that is also Sexwale’s own strategy.

And, whether by design or not, Malema’s disciplinary hearing seems to have given Sexwale a platform from which to indirectly attack Zuma and further his own ambitions.

In a recent ANC national executive meeting – after the start of disciplinary action against Malema and other ANCYL national leaders – Malema and ANCYL secretary-general Sandiso Magaqa issued an unprecedented challenge to the ANC top leadership regarding their disciplinary hearing. The pair, pointing at Zuma and his fellow top five ANC leaders, argued that they were being “accused of a lot of things that are un-ANC” but that they were simply doing what they had been taught to do in 2007 when Mbeki was replaced with Zuma.

This is said to have opened up space for Sexwale and Winnie Madikizela-Mandela – both seen as backers of Malema – to come to Malema’s defence and voice their opposition to the current disciplinary process against him.  Both testified in his favour at his hearing.

Sexwale also pleaded at an ANC meeting in the Eastern Cape that Malema should be forgiven saying he had made mistakes because of his youth and should be helped instead of rejected. Sexwale said it was wrong for Zuma to charge Malema.

According to some sources Sexwale slammed his fellow ANC leaders, accusing them of double standards. In an aside at Zuma, he reportedly said the ANC had accepted the apologies of Zuma and spokesman Jackson Mthembu when they had erred, but failed to do so in the case of Malema.

President Zuma, in turn lashed out at senior ANC leaders who spoke against Malema’s disciplinary hearing – by implication Sexwale it would seem. Unnamed sources have been quoted as saying that Zuma lashed out at Sexwale and others like him as being “unprincipled” because the party was “acting against their friend” (Malema).

Yet, at the same time he suggested that he was open to a political solution which could offer a compromise out of the current situation and thus defuse the tensions and divisions.

Meanwhile the succession issue has divided the alliance with Zuma apparently being assured at this point of the firm support of only the SACP, part of Cosatu, and part of the ANCWL. He also retains strong support in the ANC structures in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal.

In most of the provinces there are divisions within the ANC along the same fault lines as outlined above, some of these being further complicated by other divisions, struggles and issues of which there are too many to elaborate on here. But a quick survey of recent developments seems to suggest that Zuma may still have the upper hand in most provinces.

However, only time will tell as to what the final outcome of these developments will be.

Stef Terblance