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Big battle loomingWith 30 days to go to South Africa’s all-important municipal elections, it seems that probably the biggest election battle since 1994 is looming. The political temperature is rising, with a number of important trends and tendencies emerging.
The emerging trends include:
An unprecedented run of negative developments for the ruling ANC (African National Congress), including the minister responsible for local government, Sicelo Shiceka, being nailed for allegedly spending thousands of taxpayers’ rands on himself and his love escapades while impoverished townships are up in arms over the lack of delivery; television news footage showing how Andries Tatane, a former ANC member who joined an opposition party, is killed by a mob of policemen during a service delivery protest in Ficksburg; the ANC’s Youth Wing leader Julius Malema having to defend himself in court on the “Shoot the Boer” hate speech charges, with him and his supporters displaying intimidatory behaviour and scant regard for the dignity and authority of the court; an earlier incident in which the dreaded comments about coloureds and Indians made by government spokesperson Jimmy Mayi became public, potentially causing further harm to the ANC’s already weak position in the Western Cape, and possibly costing it votes in the two affected communities elsewhere; and the ugly scenes of ANC members, branches and regions turning upon each other in assaults, murder, marches and court cases as they battled each other for control of the process of selecting ANC candidates.
On the ground, the DA (Democratic Alliance) seems, on the surface, to be winning; a research survey tells us that most voters will, however, stick with their parties. A survey commissioned by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) in November found that the majority of respondents (nearly half) said they would give their political parties a “second chance” in the coming election even if they had not met their expectations.
Explosive issues such as race, religion and the role the SABC is playing in the election are increasingly coming to the fore with a militancy as illustrated by the attempt this past weekend by an ANC convoy that tried to invade the area around the house of IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party) leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi near Ulundi, after ANC Youth League leader Malema earlier threatened to go to Buthelezi’s house to “recruit his wife and children” for the ANC. IFP members blocked the road and the police had to position themselves between the two groups to keep the peace. Political violence between these two parties has cost many lives in the past.
The elections are taking place under a general explosive atmosphere, with the IEC survey showing that nearly half of all respondents indicated that they were highly dissatisfied with the performance of their municipalities.
The elections may be the first since 1994 with a high stay-away vote. Nearly a quarter of the respondents said they did not intend voting. The survey further found low levels of trust in key political institutions, but high regard for religious bodies, the IEC and, surprisingly, the SABC.
DA on new ground
The DA itself has this time round taken a deliberate decision not to get involved with the ANC and other parties in mudslinging contests as during previous elections. So when the ANCYL’s Malema recently said DA leader Helen Zille dances like a monkey – referring to her toyi-toying/dancing on the campaign trail – she ignored it or joked about it on social media.
The DA has been breaking new ground with its campaign – leaders such as Zille campaigning hard in marginal areas where the DA has a chance of defeating the ANC, such as Port Elizabeth and parts of the Northern Cape.
Zille herself has focused on putting her dancing shoes, her own rising stature, her ability to speak Xhosa and a little Zulu, and the DA’s good track record in places where it rules to good use by going into traditional ANC strongholds to lure away those who are disgruntled with the ANC and poor service delivery.
There seems to be a fairly widespread expectation this time – among both ordinary voters and so-called political experts – that the outcome of the elections may differ from the norm of previous years. It is thought that voters may show their disapproval in respect of poor delivery and that the ANC may find its wings somewhat clipped after 18 May, with opposition parties – and particularly the DA – benefiting.
Race card
Race remains a big factor in South African elections, and the Pandora’s box of race issues that was opened up by Manyi’s infamous remarks about coloureds and Indians, continues to play a significant role. Opposition parties, in particular the DA, are exploiting Manyi's remarks to the full, while the stand-off between accuser and defendant in the Malema hate speech trial is pretty much a racial affair as well.
ANC campaigners continue positioning the DA as a party that defends white privilege only and that no self-respecting black South African should vote for it. And Malema clearly alluded to the township view that whites have no rhythm and cannot dance when he called Zille an ugly woman who dances like a monkey.
Meanwhile, the signs are there that coloured voters continue to feel insulted by the remarks Manyi and others made about coloureds, and that it could cost the ANC dearly in the elections. While the ANC clearly needed a well-known name with working-class credibility to go up against the DA’s Cape Town mayoral candidate, Patricia de Lille – who has those credentials – it was probably felt that the ANC candidate also had to be coloured. Enter Tony Ehrenreich.
A bigger battle
Finally, another trend in this election is that most mainstream parties will be participating across a far broader front in many more municipalities than they did in 2006, which means they smell the blood of a wounded party out there.
The ANC is the only party standing in all wards except seven in Potchefstroom where its registration was late. The DA will be contesting the elections in all but six of the country’s municipalities. Indeed, a bigger battle than ever before is looming.
