Strategic thinking appears confusing

Along with the run-down state of South Africa’s defence capability, that we report on elsewhere defence policy also seems to lack clear strategic focus as defence minister Lindiwe Sisulu just signed a defence agreement with Argentina.

Sisulu signed the agreement with her Argentine counterpart Dr Nilda Garré onboard the SAS Drakensberg, which was there to participate in the naval exercise ATLASUR VIII with the Argentinian, Brazilian and Uruguayan navies in the southern Atlantic.

Her spokesman, Ndivhuwo Mabaya said in a statement afterwards that “South Africa and Argentina strengthened their military partnership by signing an agreement to exchange technology, innovation, military health development and participation on joint training exercises and partnership for search and rescue operations in the Southern Atlantic Ocean”.

While South Africa also already has strong military relations with Brazil, there is some doubt about the real importance of an agreement with Argentina at this time.

Argentina has no significant defence industry and seems to be looking towards South Africa’s ailing defence industry to help it modernise its own run-down armed forces (which have yet to recover from the beating they took from Britain in the Falklands War). Misguided policies in the 1990s all but destroyed Argentina’s defence industry, although the two successive Kirchner governments have been trying to revive it.

What is disturbing, however,  about the SA-Argentine agreement and the statement made by Sisulu on  it concerns what should be South Africa’s far more immediate security considerations ... piracy and security in African waters.

Of the agreement with Argentina Mabaya said in the official statement this weekend: "This was an achievement by the navies of the Southern hemisphere countries that ensured continued co-operation in maritime security and to gauge their readiness to address the ongoing global security challenges they face.”

At the same time Sisulu, when asked by a journalist, said South Africa would “not get involved” in the Somali piracy drama in which two South African yacht crew were taken hostage. The inference being that no matter that they are South Africans, it’s not our problem.

In fact, Sisulu said South Africa would not get involved in any of the piracy threats off the East African coast which is currently patrolled by a European Union naval task force and naval vessels from various other countries including the  US, India and China. She added that South Africa would only get involved once the piracy occurred in Southern African Development Community (SADC) waters.

It may well be argued that one cannot gear an entire navy or defence policy around the fate of two South Africans captured by pirates while sailing on a small pleasure craft. But that is hardly the point. The kidnapped South Africans are  only the latest victims in what is becoming a growing threat for South Africa and South African-linked shipping.

It is not only the unfortunate yacht crew that have fallen victim to piracy. Several ships of Safmarine – a major South African-linked shipping company – operating from South Africa on the north-south route along West Africa have already fallen prey to pirates. And what is more, pirates on both sides of the African continent have targeted other ships operating between South Africa and various world destinations. South Africa’s coastal shipping trade with African ports on both sides of the sub-continent is also highly vulnerable.

And the pirates – particularly those operating from Somalia – have been moving their illegal activities ever more south, ever closer to South Africa...as with the latest incident involving the yacht which occurred near Mozambique. For the pirates the busy and lucrative shipping lanes around South Africa must be a great temptation.

In respect of the SA-Argentine agreement, Sisulu herself spoke in Argentina about the challenges being faced: "The most obvious of these are terrorism, piracy on the high seas, proliferation of nuclear weapons among rogue countries, biological and chemical warfae, cyber warfare, resource scarcity and climate change. These threats present major challenges to the deployment of our armed forces. Deterrence is not enough. Our armed forces must be able to anticipate and act swiftly to address these threats whenever they arise.”

What should be of great concern to South Africa’s defence planners is the fact that South African-linked shipping has become increasingly threatened by piracy much closer to home....in fact right here in South Africa’s backyard. With 90% of all South Africa’s trade being conducted by sea, this should be of paramount concern. Which makes Sisulu’s expressed views and statements difficult to understand.