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A society suffering from oil contamination

Nigeria has the potential to challenge South Africa for the crown of Africa’s only major political economic power. South Africa has been slipping lately, but Nigeria – being dogged by recent setbacks – is still a long way off to be considered a real contender.  Uncertainty about the health of its president is complicating matters seriously in this already very complex country.

Nigeria is an amazing country. With a population approaching 150 million and being a major oil producer, Nigeria is not only the uncontested leader in West Africa, but legitimately can lay claim to be one of the leading states on the African continent.

But, if not for the arbitrary manner in which the European powers drew the borders of their African empires, Nigeria as we know it probably never would have existed today.

The result is a country comprising of more than 250 different ethnic groups and languages, and a host of indigenous belief systems with Islam (50%) and Christianity (40%) the two main religions.

Tension between the different ethnic, language and religious groups are simmering always, and the extraordinary violence that characterises religious clashes between Muslims and Christians, such as recently in the city of Jos, is a constant reminder of the fragility of the Nigerian state.

If the composition of Nigeria is a recipe for trouble, the discovery of large deposits of high-quality crude oil in the Niger Delta made it worse. For many years, Nigeria was the largest producer of crude oil in Africa and the revenue accrued was massive.

The country, however, has fallen victim to the oil curse. Today, Nigeria is a country of extremes. The privileged few who are benefiting – legally and illegally – from the profits of oil, live a life of opulence and luxury while the vast majority struggle in abject poverty.

Growing discontent over neglect experienced in some parts of the country while others were developed and benefited, gave rise to militancy in the Niger Delta. A campaign of violence and physical attacks on the oil industry followed. The effect of the campaign was so successful that it not only crippled the Nigerian economy, but contributed to an increase in the international price of crude oil. It further allowed Angola to replace Nigeria as Africa’s largest oil producer – a severe blow to Nigeria’s self-esteem.

Half-hearted attempts by successive governments to address the mounting problems in the Niger Delta contributed to increasing dissatisfaction and intensification in militant activities both in volume and boldness.

Upon taking office in April 2007, President Umaru Yar’Adua identified the Niger Delta as a national priority that immediately would receive the required attention. Except for the formation of a dedicated ministry for the Niger Delta, little transpired until the announcement of an amnesty for militants late in 2009.

Surprisingly, the reaction exceeded all expectations and for the first time, there was optimism that the corner had been turned in the Niger Delta. The optimism, however, was short-lived.

The incapacitation of President Yar’Adua and the consequent constitutional succession wrangling that ensued, interrupted the smooth administration of the amnesty process. The added inability to implement the conditions of the amnesty offer and lack of progress in the improvement of conditions in the Niger Delta gave rise to disillusionment, and militants responded by reverting to their old habits of looting and intimidation.

Worse still, with far-reaching consequences for the oil industry and the international crude oil price, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta – the umbrella body to which most of the militant organisations in the Niger Delta belong – accepted responsibility for the resumption of attacks on oil installations in recent days.

Its demands for an improvement of life in the Niger Delta are legitimate, although its modus operandi and option for violence are questionable. Many, if not most, of them are compromised by the fact that they double as criminals and vice versa depending on the circumstances – to put it bluntly, a militant by day and a criminal by night.

Kidnapping

Kidnapping of foreigners for ransom has become the choice for both the militants and the criminals to secure a constant income. A traumatic experience for the victim – as no doubt the South African cameraman kidnapped in Nigeria while working for M-Net will testify.

Kidnapping in Nigeria, however, seldom ends in serious harm to the kidnapped. Once again, there are many vested interests that will suffer. Kidnapping and the negotiation process that follows is big business that guarantees a handsome return if successful, and it seldom fails. Why kill the goose that provides the golden egg?

Undesired practices stimulated by what the oil industry brought to Nigeria in the form of corruption, bribery, disregard for local customs, property and the environment, unfortunately had found their way into the fabric of Nigerian society, contaminating almost everything – in particular business and politics, to a level that many will argue is difficult to equal and almost impossible to surpass.

This is causing unease in Nigeria, and the notion of the country sliding into the category of “failed state status” is receiving prominence in the local print media.

It is most prominent in the oil sector. Large-scale corruption, intimidation, nepotism, fraud, theft and unwarranted interference occur at all levels. Senior politicians, high-ranking military and security officers, civil servants and prominent business people are involved in nefarious oil deals ranging from illegal oil bunkering to irregular tender procedures.

Herculean effort required

Instability and confusion in the Niger Delta and the oil industry benefit vested interests. Only a herculean and completely fearless approach to change can turn the tide.

Nigeria is not the only country in the world where crime and corruption are rampant, but if Nigeria is serious about its ambition to be an uncontested leader on the African continent, the opportunity has arrived unexpectedly by way of the incapacitation of the uninspiring President Yar’Adua.

If what was tantamount to nothing short of a political circus following President Yar’Adua’s prolonged absence from office while receiving medical treatment in Saudi Arabia is anything to go by, however, it may be wishful thinking.

The level-headedness and controlled manner in which Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan handled a delicate situation still left a glimmer of hope.

Not only did he succeed in preventing military intervention in a country where the military always has been very close to the centre of power, and in the past never hesitated to intervene. He also refused to be side-tracked by various interest groups and individuals rummaging to protect and preserve vested interests and others attempting to position themselves to profit from an expected new dispensation.

The glimmer, however, may be short-lived.

In a country as diverse and complicated as Nigeria, checks and balances are necessary if democracy is to function.

One such measure specific to Nigeria requires that the presidency will rotate to accommodate the different geographical regions. At the moment, the presidency belongs to the Muslim-dominated north. Vice-President Jonathan, in typical Nigerian trade-off fashion, is from the Christian-dominated south.

The north already has indicated that the next four-year presidential term starting in 2011 belongs to it, which excludes Acting President Jonathan from running in next year’s presidential election.

While the medical condition of President Yar’Adua is shrouded in secrecy and uncertainty prevails when or if he will return to the office, the first shots have been fired in the nomination process of who should be the ruling PDP’s presidential candidate. This will dominate Nigeria in coming months.

The most predictable aspect of Nigeria is its unpredictability. This makes Nigeria such an intriguing country, but causes great difficulty to impose itself forcefully on the African and international stage, as well as a serious risk that any foreign investor has to key in when considering opportunities in Nigeria.

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