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Lessons for South AfricaThe terror attack on the Togo national soccer team on the eve of the Africa Cup of Nations soccer tournament in the Cabinda enclave belonging to Angola did not come as a surprise to many; especially not to the Angolan security forces. While much of the roots of the incident can be found in America’s historic thirst for oil, there is also little reason for the incident to cast a shadow on the Soccer World Cup in South Africa.
The Angolan authorities were aware well in advance of a possible terror attack. The Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC), who claimed responsibility for the ambush of the bus carrying the Togo team, made no secret of their intentions to disrupt Africa’s soccer showpiece and discredit the host country.
The Angolan security forces and those responsible for safety at the tournament committed a cardinal sin. They were complacent, thought they had all eventualities covered and underestimated the threat concluding wrongfully that it rang hollow.
There were also, from the outset, other indicators that Cabinda might not be a safe place to stage an international sporting event.
Only the Angolans can explain why they chose to ignore the facts.
In a country where about 80% of the people must survive on less that US$2 a day, the inhabitants of Cabinda rank among the poorest of the poor – this despite the immense wealth generated by the Cabinda oil fields.
The Angolan government does conspicuously little to improve the lives of the people in Cabinda and prefers to siphon the wealth away to Luanda creating in Cabinda a fertile environment for discontent and resistance and movements like FLEC to flourish. Did it never occur that some radical elements in Cabinda might take exception and choose an event like this to demonstrate to an international audience in a shocking manner the level of their discontent?
In the general election of September 2008, Unita managed a surprisingly strong showing in Cabinda by winning a third of the vote while losing heavily in some of its former strongholds. Although Unita is an integral part of the political landscape in Angola and as official opposition rejects violence in all forms, its good showing in an area far removed from its traditional power base should have had the red lights flickering.
Simmering dissatisfaction and ill feeling among the people of Cabinda generated by the treatment they receive from the government coupled with accusations of human rights violations and the Angolan armed forces blamed for the unlawful detention and torture of people suspected of rebel activities, accentuate the level of discontent. These facts go a long way to explain why radicals in Cabinda will carry out such an evil deed and vow to carry out more.
A short history excursion might shed more light. Most of Cabinda’s indigenous population of 300 000 claim to be culturally and historically distinct from the rest of the people within the geopolitical boundaries of Angola. According to those demanding separation, Angola has no legal claim to Cabinda. This is based on the argument that the former colonial master, Portugal, between 1883 and 1885 entered into treaties with the rulers and local population of the traditional Cabinda kingdoms which in turn rendered Cabinda a Portuguese protectorate.
These treaties were given further legal status when Belgium, Britain and France gave it recognition at the Congress of Berlin in 1885. When Portugal in 1976 granted Angola independence, it is argued Cabinda was erroneously made part of Angola.
Were it not for oil which is found in abundance along the Cabinda coast and delivers almost half of Angola’s total oil output, it is even possible that the government in Luanda might have walked away from Cabinda or would have at least come to some sort of amicable agreement with the permanent inhabitants of the enclave. Natural beauty and some good fishing are not enough to cling onto an underdeveloped and impoverished area where the locals are hostile and reject your authority.
But the presence of oil, like so often, changed everything. Even during the height of a bloody 28-year-long civil war when Angola became a major battlefield in the Cold War and the old Soviet Union and the United States fought it out by proxy, oil was the reason for the little war damage in Cabinda in comparison to the rest of Angola.
During the civil war FLEC, which is in essence a loose federation of various rebel groups, fought its own independence struggle within the bigger Angolan conflict. At the height of the civil war, FLEC kept over 40 000 government troops occupied in Cabinda and were considered a formidable combat force.
The fighting however never reached the oilfields of Cabinda and the anomaly was that while United States surrogates were locked in battle with thousands of Cuban troops in the Angolan hinterland, Cuban troops were stationed in Cabinda to protect the facilities of big Western and American oil companies including Chevron.
While the United States was declaring to the world that it was supporting the fighters of freedom and democracy in Angola, American oil companies were rewarding the then Marxist MPLA government in Luanda handsomely, helping the communists to finance their war effort.
When the Angolan civil war came to an end in 2002, the unrest in Cabinda subsided significantly although a small band of die-hard FLEC members continued with a low intensity armed struggle. The well equipped and battle hardened government troops stationed in Cabinda considered them little more than of nuisance value.
Eventually, a Memorandum of Understanding for Peace and Reconciliation brought the Cabinda conflict officially to an end on 1 August 2006. Not all the FLEC associates supported the memorandum and promised to continue with an armed struggle until their demands were met. Now it appears as if one of these dissident groups chose the Africa Cup of Nations to show they still mean business.
The attack on the bus was politically motivated and was carried out by persons highly frustrated and very angry.
There is absolutely no logic in now crying wolf and claiming hysterically that the same will happen in South Africa during the World Cup. In the world of terror, it is unwise to say never but the situation, background and factors that led to the incident in Cabinda are unique and highly unlikely to be repeated under prevailing conditions in South Africa.
However, South Africa must see the Cabinda incident as a timely wake-up call. Terror attacks can and will take place anywhere and anytime and never can always be prevented. The initiative lies with the perpetrator and that is his strongest weapon. But good and thorough preparation can limit the chances or success of a planned attack.
So what is the message of the Cabinda attack for World Cup 2010?
Identify the causes that gave rise to the attack. If similarities are identified, prioritise and monitor all groups and/or individuals showing any willingness to execute deeds of terror and violence to further their cause or vent their dissatisfaction.
Do not repeat the Angolan mistake. Everyone involved in the security of the World Cup tournament in South Africa must know that complacency is tantamount to treason. Vigilance at all times is imperative and never ever underestimate any threat. Failure to do so might result in consequences too ghastly to contemplate. Ask the Angolans!
