Share this
Mister Wong
Digg
Del.icio.us
Slashdot
Furl
Yahoo
Technorati
Newsvine
Googlize this
Blinklist
Facebook
Wikio
Hear this text
Print
E-mail
A decade of across the board restructuringIt has become customary for commentators of all sorts to spinout predictions at the start of a new decade and the start of 2010 has been no different. History seldom deploys in the staccato rhythm of counting systems, but it is possible to identify historical eras – mostly when looking back. It is, however, safe to say that in the new decade we will experience the early stages of a new era in human history, which will see society and how it organises itself undergoing some drastic changes on almost all fronts of how individuals and institutions are confronted by the living environment.
A number of unavoidable factors, most of which we have very little or no control will propel society into this new era.
On a number of these factors there seems to be broad consensus among most commentators, although they might differ widely on the impact and effect they may have on society and its institutions. Under the more important of these factors counts the following:
* There is fairly wide consensus that not only in the face of global warming, but almost more importantly, due to the impact of dwindling oil and gas reserves alternative energy sources will be one of the “major players” in the immediate years to come. At the end of last year, reports surfaced about the suppression of information by the International Energy Agency that a peak in global oil supplies is at hard. At least one of the reasons for the suppression is a fear that it could trigger a next crisis in the financial markets;
* Although it is also clear that especially bailout packages has prevented the financial sector from turning away from its wrongful ways and excesses of the past and that a new regulatory environment is slow in emerging, there is broad consensus that the way in which capitalism has developed over the last number of decades cannot last much longer. A fully integrated global economy based on everlasting growth has become unsustainable and we are likely to see the pendulum starting to move away form globalisation towards localisation in many, if not most, sectors;
* A recurring theme among commentators in the wake of the economic/financial crisis of 2008/09 and in looking at the road ahead at the start of the decade is that the world is almost searching/longing for a new economic ideology. The triumph of capitalism over communism two decades ago led to a dangerous cocktail of blind faith that the free market can take care of all economic needs mixed with greed and self gratification on the side of many bankers and business leaders that led to the 2008-collapse. The “new faith” has not come down from the mountain yet, but it seems inevitable;
* These factors, combined with the fast changing shift of economic power away from the traditional (West dominated) powers toward Asian dominated emerging powers, will increase the momentum towards a new international balance of power. The movement of the last few years away from the American dominated uni-polar world towards a multi-polar international scene is likely to pick-up speed over the immediate future;
* With their ageing populations and dwindling natural resources the developed “first world” has come to the end of its ability and capacity to drive global economic development. Many of these countries’ roles are likely to increasingly change to “players off the bench” as investors – if not to much of their investment capital does not get wiped-out in a next financial crisis. At the same time, many commentators foresee that private equity funds and sovereign funds might in future rival equity markets as investors in the real economy after the speculation orgy of recent decades.
* One can expect massive changes in key industries of our present lifestyle like transport with increasing pressure on the airline and shipping sectors to “clean-up” their act. In the process, it is likely that the global community will also have to re-evaluate how it organises itself. The irony does not escape all that the carbon footprint of the December climate conference in Copenhagen, from transport of delegates alone, must have been massive. The pollution cost of transporting food, production/manufacturing components between continents are also likely to give some momentum to the development of “localisation”;
* Most commentators also foresee massive international competition for talent and skills as populations age and some are starting to predict a “first world war on skills”; and
* Sustainability is likely to become one of the most important buzzwords of the near future, but it will not be defined by a single issue like global warming or renewable energy. It will have to take onboard issues like the unachievable goal of perpetual growth, the complexity of skills needed to utilise some technologies or manage financial systems effectively, adaptation to unavoidable climate changes and the like.
