The scenario team members put their money where their mouth is

Unless all South Africans pull together, each making a contribution and engaging with each other and with the state, the country faces a very bleak future.

That is the verdict from a group of 35 eminent South Africans from different walks of life who recently produced what is known as the Dinokeng Scenarios – three different, possible futures for South Africa.

Wise words from wise people. But what are they themselves going to do to realise a better future for all? We asked them to put their money where their mouth is.

The Dinokeng Scenarios project came about in response to the pressing problems facing South Africa after 15 years of democracy. It was facilitated by Old Mutual and Nedbank who wanted the initiative to be conducted in the public interest.

The 35 members of the scenario team – eminent leaders from civil society and government, political parties, business, public administration, trade unions, religious groups, academia and the media – were brought together by six convenors led by Dr Mamphela Ramphele, a former vice chancellor of the University of Cape Town and prominent businesswoman.

Installed in a remote corner of the country called Dinokeng – which means “a place where rivers flow together” – they were asked to probe the country’s present, and to consider possible futures.

Their diagnosis – apart from listing a number of national “assets” and positive achievements – paints a somewhat gloomy picture of our democracy 15 years down the road.

Of the three possible outcomes predicted for South Africa, only one called “Walk Together” holds a bright future in which the citizenry engages with a collaborative, accountable government, sharing a common national vision cutting across narrow self-interest.

The other two – to quote a former apartheid era prime minister – offers a future “too ghastly to contemplate”. (See Dinokeng Scenarios Project box for details.)

The scenario team concluded that in order for South Africa to realise the kind of ideal future spelt out in Walk Together, all three of the present trends identified by the team in its diagnosis would have to be reversed, that is, citizens would have to re-engage, the capacity of the state must be strengthened, and leaders from all sectors have to rise above their narrow self-interests and contribute purposefully to building our nation.

So just how would these eminent team members themselves rise to the occasion, we wondered?

Dinokeng team member Jay Naidoo, a former trade unionist and Reconstruction and Development Programme minister in the government of Nelson Mandela, believes his current role as chairperson of the Development Bank of Southern Africa and in the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition and the J&J Development Trust provides “a meaningful platform to debate the vision” that the team members shared in the drafting of the Dinokeng Scenarios.

“As a development activist, I am keen to mentor and develop leadership through practical programmes that will make our vision of a united, democratic, non-racial and non-sexist society a reality through the scenarios developed.”

Naidoo says he will continue to support the struggles of people, be it around the pandemic of HIV/Aids, or the threats that malnutrition poses to the next generation, or the challenges faced in fighting crime and corruption.

All citizens “must be encouraged to put their shoulder to the wheel just like we did in our freedom struggle,” he says. “A vibrant civil society is the best guarantee of our constitutional rights.”

Reuel Khoza, chairperson of Aka Capital, Nedbank Group and Corobrik, and a director of several other companies, says, “During the course of our deliberations, I suggested that we should perhaps change the metaphor from scenario planning to that of creating a compass through which we would find ourselves much more engaged.”

This compass could assume various forms.

Beyond launching the reports, it was felt each of the scenario team members should participate in the implementation and dissemination of what could be done.

Khoza suggested that those who are good at writing should use the Dinokeng report as a basis to write and publish regularly for the next 12 months.

Others should participate in debating forums, or speak on television, or participate in action-orientated public forums. In the latter regard, he recently delivered a paper to the Gauteng legislature on leadership development and governance.

At a more practical, direct level, Khoza’s bank already, after the Polokwane Conference, offered free support to the government in the area of financial management training.

“We felt we could work with them to launch training programmes at all three levels of government, training people in the basics of financial management, teach them how to put a budget together, and how to implement and monitor it. We offered this to government at the very top and followed it up with the ANC treasurer-general, Mathews Phosa,”
he says.

Khoza says that while several discussions took place and the response was basically positive, some issues still have to be resolved.

In the meantime, the offer still stands.

Another area in which Khoza foresees more future engagement between business and government, is in the government’s ambitious job creation plans.

“The only way government can realise its job creation targets is by working hand in hand with the private sector, and we as Nedbank would like to confer with government to see how we can render that real. We will have to work side by side to realise that strategy.”

Khoza says government, corporate South Africa and the broader civil society will all have to work together and pool their resources in order to reduce or eliminate their respective “blind spots”.

He believes the unprecedented public participation in the recent general election and President Jacob Zuma’s various undertakings “are a fantastic start to this kind
of engagement”.

“But in business parlance, them making these promises, that was putting out, in a sense, their prospectus. But it was not delivery.

“Delivery is implementing the business. That is the prospectus of how they see South Africa Incorporated. Now it requires populating that prospectus with practical delivery. The government that is now in place, however, got off to a very good start in that it is consultative,” says Khoza.

For Kallie Kriel, the former teacher, trade unionist and civil liberties activist who heads AfriForum – the civil initiative established by trade union Solidarity – the answer lies in civil society helping to establish independent civil institutions.

“That is what I and AfriForum and the Solidarity movement are already busy with,” he says.

AfriForum offers a forum for the constructive activation of minorities outside the realm of party politics to participate in public debate and action. It is responsible for a broad range of campaigns aimed at the protection of civil rights, including opposition against political interference in sport, crime and the changing of place names.

The organisation also manages the Come Home Campaign that provides free advice to South Africans abroad about the return process to South Africa.

Kriel believes all South Africans have to work together to solve problems, and that is why he did not hesitate to participate in the Dinokeng project when asked to do so.

“It was refreshing to see that people with such divergent viewpoints shared the same concerns over the direction in which our country is going,” he says. “Citizens in general, but also specifically Afrikaners and Afrikaans-speakers, must not wait for the government to involve them in solving our problems. We must not let the future happen to us, we must create it.

“So what can we do? The answer is that while you take note of that which you cannot change, you engage with enthusiasm in tackling those things where you can make a difference. Big things start when thousands of ordinary people successfully tackle smaller things.

“Join organisations to see your viewpoints becoming part of the public agenda. Become involved in your local school, community safety action, children’s home, feeding project, training institutions, and other community projects.”

For businessman Rick Menell, it is nothing new to roll up his sleeves and become engaged with others in working towards achieving the ideal South Africa, as he and the other Dinokeng team members advise their fellow South Africans to do.

“Since 1996, I have been involved in many initiatives to address nation-building and development issues in South Africa, devoting approximately 40% of my time and other personal resources,” says this Cambridge and Stanford trained exploration geologist and investment banker who headed up mining companies such as Anglovaal Mining, African Rainbow Minerals and TEAL Exploration
and Mining.

He also serves on the boards of several other companies and non-governmental organisations.

As a director of the National Business Initiative since 1996, Menell has closely been involved in business-government-community partnerships in the areas of education, technical training, local economic development, entrepreneurial support, support for joint government-business initiatives, environmental sustainability, and other areas of voluntary collaborative business engagement in all the priorities highlighted in Dinokeng.

He was involved in the informal discussions between the presidency and business leaders that led to the establishment of the Business Trust in 1999, of which he is a board member.

Menell also served without remuneration and at the request of Cabinet as chairperson of the South African Tourism Board, and currently serves as chairperson of another joint project, the Tourism Enterprise Project.

“There are numerous other projects and initiatives in which I have participated or am participating in which have, as a general theme, collaborative efforts to bridge the divides in our society through practical projects focused on education, economic development, giving hope and a dignified future to our young people and fighting the scourge of racism (both ways) and corruption,” says Menell.

For Namhla Mniki, a former lecturer, trainer, researcher and consultant who has been a project director at the African Monitor since 2006, the most important and realistic thing any South African can do to ensure an ideal future along the lines of Dinokeng’s Walk Together scenario, “is to act locally, in their immediate environment, to influence systems, people and institutions in such a way that debate and change is catalysed towards the right direction.

“I am lucky in that I work with an organisation that is already heavily involved in some of the key policy debates to address poverty in South Africa. I am passionate about finding a way to address the challenge of poverty in South Africa. I think the solution lies in dialogue, ownership and engagement, particularly of local communities,” she says.

“For instance, we have been engaged with the government to take forward the anti-poverty strategy launched last year,” she says.

“On a personal level, I feel a deep sense of responsibility as a young leader for participating actively in processes that create opportunities for ordinary South Africans to dream, envision life beyond poverty and eventually achieve that. I work in my immediate environment with schools, within my church, and as an engaged citizen to make small differences in the lives of some of the people I meet.”

Finally, Paul Hanratty, who is managing director of Old Mutual South Africa, the company that was the principal initiator and sponsor of the Dinokeng project, believes he can make his best contribution through the work of his company.

“We have identified a number of priority areas in which we believe we can make a meaningful contribution to, including promoting economic growth and investment, developing our youth to be a source of advantage for South Africa, promoting stability in our region, promoting self-belief in people and minimising the effect of the global financial crisis,” he says.

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Dinokeng Scenarios Project

Convenors

Dr Mamphela Ramphele, a former vice chancellor of the University of Cape Town and director on numerous boards; Anglican Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane; Old Mutual Europe regional director Bob Head; social activist and wife of Nelson Mandela, Graça Machel; SA Breweries executive director Dr Vincent Maphai; and mining executive, Rick Menell.

Scenario team

Miriam Altman, Frans Baleni, Ann Bernstein, Nkosinathi Biko, Cheryl Carolus, Angela Coetzee, Ryan Coetzee, Paul Hanratty, Haniff Hoosen, Moemedi Kepadisa, Reuel Khoza, Kallie Kriel, Antjie Krog, Mary Malete, Daniel Mminele, Namhla Mniki, Aaron Motsoaledi, Jay Naidoo, Yogan Naidoo, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, Thandi Nontenja, Thami ka Plaatjie, Sonja Sebotsa, Raenette Taljaard, Mathatha Tsedu, Sim Tshabalala,
Musa Zondi

Diagnosis of current South Africa

The Positive: South Africa’s successful democratic process and its Constitution; an independent and robust media; no approaching ethnic or racial cleansing; civilian control over the army; a historically active and engaged civil society; the Polokwane Conference of the ANC and the formation of the Congress of the People; economic and social achievements; among others.

The Negative: Rising political intolerance; leadership that has failed in respect of crime, accountability, corruption, a competent public service, nepotism and greed; racial polarisation; urban and rural poverty and inequality; and failures in the education and health systems.

Underpinning Legacies: Lack of inclusive leadership; lack of a common sense of nationhood; the exile dominance of the ruling party which ignored the skills and talents of many South Africans; a culture of mediocrity and a weak state born out of cronyism, corruption and nepotism; failure to fully confront the inherited cultures of racism, sexism and liberation ideology; and deep structural flaws going beyond 1994.

Underlying Trends: Citizens have largely disengaged since 1994, becoming dependent on the government; state capacity to address challenges is weak and declining; and leaders of all sectors have become increasingly self-interested, unethical and unaccountable.

Three scenarios

Walk Apart: The state is corrupt, ineffective and unaccountable. Economic constraints worsen. The citizens are distrusting, disengage and form their own self-protective power blocs. The gap between the government and citizens widens. The government meets popular protests and unrest with brutal repression, leading to decay and disintegration.

Walk Behind: The state uses central planning and co-ordination for accelerated development and delivery. The state bases its interventionist approach on assumed global trends and is given a powerful mandate by the electorate. Private initiative by business and civil society is crowded out. The risks for the country are unsustainable debt and an increasingly authoritarian state.

Walk Together: An active citizenry engages with a collaborative government. The government listens to delivery demands, is accountable and depends on quality political leadership and on citizens organising themselves and engaging it. A common national vision cuts across economic self-interest in the short term. In this difficult scenario, strong leadership from all sectors is required amid robust contestation over many issues.

Key messages

• Failure to recognise critical social and economic challenges, particularly unemployment, poverty, safety and security, education, and health, now exacerbated by a global economic crisis, will lead to rapid disintegration and decline.

• State-led development will fail in the absence of capacity, while pervasive state intervention will breed popular dependency and will suppress private initiative.

• Critical challenges can only be addressed if citizens’ groups, business, labour and broader civil society actively engage with the state to improve delivery and enforce an accountable government.

Conclusion

The ideal scenario of Walk Together can only succeed if citizens re-engage; if the capacity of the state is strengthened; and if leaders from all sectors rise above their narrow self-interests and contribute purposefully to building the nation.

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“So for some time, we have been looking at ways in which we could direct investment of our funds that would promote economic growth in South Africa.”

As he and his company believe that the creation of better infrastructure not only creates jobs in the short run but also makes us a more competitive nation, they have invested in infrastructure and non-conventional projects, far exceeding their targets.

Other areas of involvement include education and innovating in the building and financing of housing, which will be needed as young people enter the workplace, he says.

Echoing the views of some of the other team members to whom we spoke, Hanratty says people need to focus on their immediate spheres of influence.

“So I am talking to my children about what is happening and how we might have a better future. At 12, 11 and 8 it is surprising what a grip they have on economic matters!

“Why do I want to make a difference? I do not believe any of us can afford to take the view that we pay taxes and can therefore leave it to government to solve the problems. Our problems are not intractable, but they need everybody to pull together. I also feel people in business are going to have to stand up and talk about what we need to tackle as priorities.

“We are all wanting the same thing. We have different views on how to achieve that, and we need to listen to each other. I think this is what Dinokeng is really about,” says Hanratty.

The complete scenarios and report are available at www.dinokengscenarios.co.za.

Stef Terblanche