Revolt against revolution is brewing

A silent revolt is brewing among a substantial number of leading members of the African National Congress (ANC) over what they perceive to be the growing influence and dominance of the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), as well as the consequential sidelining of many non-socialist ANC members.

In turn, Nzimande used the occasion of unveiling the SACP’s 2009 Red October Campaign to take aim at the “capitalists” in the ANC under the guise of “disrupting the relationship between private business interests and public service”.

Nzimande acknowledges that “detractors” in the ANC see this campaign as being “inappropriate on the grounds that ours is a multi-class movement that embraces all social classes” and counters this inter alia by warning against the “threat” that business influence is being used “to try and capture the state so that it serves such private business interests”.

On Friday, 9 October, former National Intelligence boss Billy Masetlha – who was sacked by former president Thabo Mbeki – was the first senior ANC member to publicly air the grievances against the Left “takeover” of the ANC in a newspaper interview. Others have made only veiled reference to these developments, while still others have chosen to speak out anonymously only. A senior ANC source has confirmed much of what Masetlha has said, while the issue has cropped up in a number of quarters.

The unease with which the non-socialist bloc in the ANC has been watching left-wing cadres being appointed to key positions in government, Parliament, the provinces and the public service, these past two weeks simmered close to boiling point when the Left, led by Cosatu and its vocal general-secretary Zwelinzima Vavi, used the opportunity presented by the unveiling of the Green Paper of the Ministry of National Planning in the Presidency to attack its architect, Planning minister Trevor Manuel, in a undisguised move to put him in a political straightjacket or even to have him sidelined or removed.

The Left’s attack on Manuel was motivated by its fear that Manuel, perceived to be representing moderate non-socialist and business interests, is becoming too powerful while being too close to President Jacob Zuma for the Left’s comfort. The Left, having played a key role in bringing Zuma to power after ousting Mbeki, who had turned his back on them, regard Zuma as their “project”.

For the Left to successfully steer the ANC beyond the “national democratic revolution” towards a socialist revolution, it needs to keep Zuma within its influence sphere.

And it is showing, for Masetlha and others angered by the Left’s growing influence and its undisguised attempts to gain control over the ANC and key policy decisions, have expressed concern over Zuma’s silence, saying he should tell the Left to back off.

The anger over the Left’s moves also manifested itself publicly last week when a very angry Manuel said he would never comment on the charges levelled against him by Cosatu, and likened it to gossip.

Zuma, for his part, has backed himself into an extremely awkward corner – hence, probably, his silence.

In acknowledgement of the Left’s role in bringing him to power, he has rewarded the SACP and Cosatu by appointing senior members from their ranks to key positions and by promising that economic policy-making would shift to the newly created Ministry of Economic Development, which is headed by Cosatu heavyweight, Ebrahim Patel.

However, complicated governance protocols and legal issues, not least of which is presented by the Constitution itself, have prevented Zuma from giving effect to his promise. This, in turn, has led to left-wing pressure on Zuma in this regard and also helped fuel the attack against Manuel.
The Left views Manuel’s Green Paper as an attempt to prevent Zuma from shifting economic policy, or even a mere part of the function, to Patel.
But whether Zuma meant what he was saying or not when he made the promise shortly after being sworn in as president, or whether he may have second thoughts now (perhaps with some persuasion from Manuel and/or other moderates), it will be very difficult for him not to deliver at least something into the hands of the Left. Failure to do so would lead to pressure on his being stepped up considerably, which could rock the government's boat quite badly.

And should that lead to tensions between Zuma and the Left, the president will not be in a position to sideline left-wing leaders easily or fire them from government, for that would unleash the might of Cosatu’s potential for highly disruptive industrial action – an example of which has just been seen during the past few months of militant and disruptive strike action, particularly in the public sector.  

Equally so, however, Zuma cannot ignore the anti-left lobby in his party. It includes some powerful people, and they are saying the ANC has never been a socialist organisation and never will be. And they are demanding action from Zuma.