Worth a read

Monday, 02 November 2009 06:24

Seeking the future

“Predictioneer”, written by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, was released in South Africa in September 2009. In the book, the author uses game theory to predict everything – from what Iran and North Korea will do with their nuclear weapons capacity, through to the way in which countries will curb the threat of global warming and terrorism. A meta-review.

What is it all about?

Essentially, game theory is a way of applying mathematical models to predict the way in which people will behave. According to De Mesquita, people will always act in their own best interest. If you know their incentives, you can ‘predict’ with accuracy how they will behave, and ‘engineer’ costs and benefits to obtain the results you want – thus you can ‘predictioneer’.

In “Predictioneer”, De Mesquita provides insight into the way his model works, allowing the reader to play along. By identifying what your opponents want, how badly they want it, and how they are likely to react to your every move, you will be able to predictioneer events as personal as succeeding in a legal battle, advancing in your career and even negotiating the best possible price for a new car.

Who is the author?

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has been called the next Nostradamus. With predictions that are said to be 90% accurate, he has consulted to everyone – from the Central Intelligence Agency to major business firms.

A specialist in policy forecasting, political economy and international security policy, De Mesquita has authored 15 books and more than 100 articles. His previous book, "The strategy of campaigning", was co-authored with Condoleezza Rice.

What do others say?

The primary criticism surrounding De Mesquita and “Predictioneer” is that it is difficult to determine exactly how accurate his predictions are. Although a now-declassified CIA report holds that De Mesquita’s predictions are twice as accurate as those of CIA analysts, most of the work that De Mesquita has done for the CIA and other large organisations remains classified.

Also, De Mesquita cannot publish the actual code behind his program, since the software is proprietary information. However, De Mesquita counters that he has outlined enough about the mathematical basis of his code in peer-reviewed journals.

In addition, the accuracy of De Mesquita’s model relies on correctly identifying human motives, which in itself is subjective. Added to that is the fact that human motives are not always rational.

In summary, therefore, expect an insightful read, but do not use De Mesquita’s model alone to predictioneer what the property market will do in 2010.

R. James Woolsey, former CIA director: "Don’t miss this one if you care about understanding how decisions are made – pretty much all decisions."

“Publishers Weekly”: "Mesquita claims perhaps too much for his game theory model, but his cogently argued and fascinating brief will appeal to anyone interested in complex national-security issues."

How do I get hold of it?

“Predictioneer” is published in South Africa by Vintage. It is available at Exclusive Books at a recommended retail price of R219.

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