Outside-the box-thinking needed

Mankind is facing a triple threat: peak oil, climate disruption and economic inequity and instability. If we are to come to grips with our environmental future some out-of-the-box thinking might needed because the future will arrive whether we plan for it or not was the message from a recent high-octane conference in Guelph in Canada.

A powerful panel of experts discussed Our Environmental Future. It focused on steady state economics and the future of sustainability.

Dr. Peter Victor from York University challenged current understandings and assumptions about economics and the economic system, and said the economic system is the reason why "we're not taking good care of the earth".

"In normal economic models the environment is invisible and interdependence of the environment is lost." We should care, he said, because our "economy is embedded in the biosphere and we are overburdening the environment".

One of the things that have made economic growth possible over the past hundred years, said Victor, was the availability of cheap energy from fossil fuels. Without making changes, he said, predictions have been made that growth will end in the United States by 2030 to 2040. Technology will not be able to save us, added Victor, who said the idea of "Green Growth" is essentially a licence for the status quo to remain in effect.

Essentially the problem entrenched in our current economic system is that all our growth relies on natural resource extraction and at some point we will hit the wall in terms of limits. Eventually, if we go on as we are, we will simply tap out all the natural resources available to us and that will be the end of that.

Victor advocates internal development as opposed to economic growth. Enhancing the lives of people should be the goal, which he believes is an achievable goal. Actions such as redefining success, limiting the use of materials, stabilising population growth and the work force, making capital stock more efficient and instituting things like shorter work years and generous anti-poverty programmes would be ways to bring about change.

University of Guelph's  Dr. Evan Fraser, who has studied three different famines, posed the question:  "Are we going to starve?"

When going through the "grocery list of the apocalypse our future looks to be in trouble”. He had found that just before civilisations collapsed  because of  famine, the price of wheat peaked -- a sign that the food system is being mismanaged.

He also found three common mistakes made by the civilisations he studied: they created a vulnerable landscape through deforestation and by growing monoculture crops. The second crucial error was that the societies had created a permanent underclass of  poor and marginalised people. And the third mistake was what he called “the good weather trap”. He said the climate naturally changes and many societies grow dependent on crop yields that can only be achieved in good climate conditions.

Currently 20 crops provide 90% of the world's food, Fraser pointed out -- meaning that our current civilisation is possibly on the brink of a catastrophic food crisis. But it does not have to be this way, Fraser said.

He had a four-track approach to increasing food security:

* Smart science, small-scale appropriate technology for African and Asian farmers that made their agricultural pursuits more productive;

* International law to promote fair and sustainable trade;

* Government policies that see local food systems being maintained and encouraged, which would complement the global system; and

* Developing what he calls a “food culture”, a grassroots, consumer-driven movement.

Robert Rapier, a chemical engineer and the executive-vice president and CTO of Mercia International, known for his analysis of current energy developments as well as his knowledge of the oil industry spoke about peak oil. He boiled the issue down to a more personal level by likening fossil fuels to our homes.

"None of us expect our house to burn down, but if it does the consequences are great. Thus, we carry insurance. The consequences of peak oil are far greater, yet we have no insurance policy.

"You know, it's funny,  I almost don't ever say peak oil anymore because there are so many nutters associated with peak oil. I talk about resource depletion and things like that.”

While society has an idealistic vision of the future where a green economy creates jobs and new technologies solve energy problems, while we switch to alternative fuels and watch greenhouse gases decline, the reality is much harsher than that. It is more likely that coal, natural gas and nuclear energy will provide the bulk of electricity, while the prices for oil  sky-rocket and drag down the global economy.

Rapier recommended a book titled The Long Emergency, by Jim Kunstler, saying it painted a horrific future.

But things don't have to be this way. He advocates reducing energy consumption, as well as cutting subsidies for fossil fuels.

Ecologist Mike Nickerson said we should be questioning the direction in which our economic policies are taking us. There are three ways to reduce consumption of crude oil. End planned obsolescence, he urged; reclaim the value we used to ascribe to durable things and end our throw-away society.

Stressing that happiness does not depend on owning things but rather is a result of feeling satisfied with our lives, Nickerson said our current system "is economic suicide".

Money is an illusion, he said. But "if you were to max out your credit card, it would be a stellar act of citizenship." To stress the importance of this, Nickerson said that immediately following 9/11, George W. Bush told American citizens to "go shopping". He had to, Nickerson said, because nobody was shopping and businesses were thus not making any money and the American economy was at risk of collapse.

A large part of the solution to our problems is to enjoy life, Nickerson explained. "We consume as much as we can and waste as much as we can, yet we still need to grow."

We need to shift the definition of what it means to be a good human being, he said.

Dr. Jennifer Sumner, speaking about "Effects of Growth on Communities,"  pointed out that income "trickles up to the lucky few", with the richest 24% of the world's population earning 74% of the world's income.

Urban sprawl, is a subset of economic growth. The consequences of growth have been increased pollution, costs and traffic congestion, the loss of public and green space and the erosion of the ability to solve problems. Growth is a liability both financially and in terms of the quality of life for most residents.

But growth can be a good thing, Sumner said. Growth can be had in public education, universal health care, food security and sovereignty, environmental legislation and other arenas, such as renewable energy cooperatives and organic agriculture.

Good growth enhances our ability to flourish, is light on resource use and heavy on job creation, Sumner said.

The bottom line is that humans are very adaptable and clever creatures and we can change things if we want to. Or we could just wait for the inevitable crisis that will force changes in behaviour.