Energy revolution at hand

“The introduction and implementation of new, revolutionary (alternative) energy sources will change the course of man everywhere on the planet. This power source will rank with fire, the wheel, and the internal combustion engine as a shaper of man’s destiny,” a recent report on the subject declares as we, in our third article on the series on the epoch in which we live, take a look at the joint impact of the convergence of pressure on traditional fossil fuel energy sources and climate change.

In an article published in February this year, Leadership Intelligence Bulletin reported that “there is fairly wide consensus among commentators that – not only in the face of global warming, but more importantly due to the impact of dwindling oil and gas reserves – alternative energy sources will be one of the major players in the immediate years to come."

In the report Secret Solutions quoted above, it is stated that “the possibilities are extraordinary. Every industry on earth will change, and eventually every person on earth will be affected.” Admittedly punting a particular approach, the report takes a mostly optimistic line.

Most commentators, however, are less optimistic and point out that the changeover to a new energy age is unlikely to occur along a smooth, straight line, but all indications are that in the medium- to long term, the world is heading toward a new energy dispensation that will see traditional primary sources of fossil fuel-based energy being replaced by new technologies.

A scenario with which the Secret Solutions report concurs is that many of these technologies will empower smaller communities and even individuals to become more self-sufficient, and that over time the dominant role of utility companies will shrink.

At the same time, a recent report by openDemocracy, under the title After glaciers: a new climate world, states that “the natural rhythm that has characterised climate on earth during the last three million years is broken”.

It further reports that Nasa's James Hansen, one of the world’s foremost experts, is only one of those convinced that the threshold to a new regime has already been passed.

In the face of the joint force of these developments, terms such as green economy, biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) and a new energy regime are being mainstreamed. In certain official circles in South Africa, there is even talk of green scorecarding tenders for state business similar to and next to the black economic empowerment presently being used in the tender-awarding process.

Under the pressure of climate change, momentum is picking up globally to put a price on the emission of greenhouse gases, with the flipside effect of making alternative/renewable energy sources economically more attractive and viable.

There is increasing talk of new energy business models, new accounting models to cost for environmental impact of business operations, and increased localisation in the process of societal adaption to a new climate and energy environment.

New alliances and opportunities

As new technology and energy business models are starting to emerge, we are already experiencing the development of new energy axles, such as the recent signing of a pact between the European Union, Brazil and Mozambique for the development of bioelectricity and biofuels projects.

There is already the development of Africa, particularly to the north of the continent, as an energy exporter to Europe. Increasingly, areas such as the barren Sahara Desert are being developed for the export of wind-generated and sun-tapping electricity to Europe.

Investment in alternative and eco-friendly technology and innovation is increasingly gaining traction. On the other hand, that which has occurred with BP's massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico dramatically illustrates how the investment risks profile of traditional energy sources is fast changing and bound to increase as exploring new sources is forced onto ever more hazardous terrain.

“Tackling climate change will require massive private sector capital flows into energy efficiency and renewable energy,” said the director-general of the Renewable Energy and Efficiency Partnership recently at the time of the release of research done for its Carbon Disclosure Project.

With these changes, however, also come substantial business and other opportunities. With the development of whole new industries will come the skilling and re-skilling of workers and new job opportunities. The South African Wind Energy Association, by way of example, claims this source of energy alone has the potential to create 40 000 new jobs by 2025.

All over the world there is increasing pressure on governments to develop appropriate policies to meet the demands of the new energy and climate dispensation. In the United States, where the administration and Congress are battling to finalise a new energy policy, Tom Buis from the organisation Growth Energy recently said that “without a plan, the US will slip backwards like we have done during all the other energy crises over the past 40 years.”

In South Africa, Economic Development minister Ebrahim Patel recently said the country’s green economy players must move with speed, as there were many other countries competing to get a slice of the global green economy.

Preliminary results from a recently commissioned study showed that 300 000 jobs could be created in South Africa’s renewable energy sector over the next 10 years, of which 20 000 are achievable in the next two years, he said at a Green Economy Summit in Johannesburg.