Fundamental changes in human existence are at hand

Evidence is mounting that humankind, and the environment that shapes its existence, are in the midst of an epoch of converging fundamentals which place us at the start of a new era in the flow of human history and the planet in which we live. History, however, is not shaped merely by a single or even a string of cataclysmic events, as doomsayers would have us believe. It is mostly shaped by processes that, although they often cause traumatic disruptions, leave enough room for mankind to adapt and survive.

In the weeks to come, we will attempt to unpack some of this evidence and identify some of the processes at work in the present epoch – with "epoch" being defined as an instant in time chosen as the origin of a particular era in history – and the processes presently at work.

In this first article in our series, we will try to list some of the evidence and identify certain processes in progress.

Let us see how the debate develops, but we may not attempt to give this epoch a name at this point in time. That typically occurs at the hands of historians employing the luxury retrospect when they coin descriptive words such as the Renaissance, colonisation, democratisation, industrialisation and globalisation.

Dominant power

Typically, and central to the processes taking place, an epoch is usually marked by the demise of a dominant centre of power or a shift away from it - be it an empire (Persia, Rome) or a grouping of powers such as the Colonial Powers or the West combined with American dominance, particularly since World War 2.

The flip side of the coin is the rise of a new centre of power, although who or which it will be is not immediately apparent.

This demise of, or shift in, power typically takes place on a number of fronts – military dominance, economic/financial dominance, control over economic resources, dominance of markets, the realm of innovation, cultural influence and many others.

Let us now attempt to list some of the evidence of the shifts in power relationships as we are witnessing in the world today:

• That which is occurring on the international scene on a broad front is perhaps best typified by the development of a debate within Chinese academic circles on a strategy for that rising power house in preparation of a post-Western world;
• From the corridors of the United Nations in New York, where the United States was the dominant influence since its inception after World War 2, a report has just been released which calls for abandoning the US dollar as the main global reserve currency, since it has been unable to safeguard value. This comes at a time when the dollar's role in the international financial system is increasingly under scrutiny, and suggests that it could be replaced by the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights; and
• In the age of globalisation - with all it entails in terms of the high mobility and intertwinement of resources, information, technology, people, production and ecosystems - has made conventional warfare highly ineffective and just about obsolete. It further has placed immense power and influence within reach of the smallest of groupings as best illustrated by the so-called 9/11 attacks on the US.

Change in the economic order

An epoch or the transition to a new era more often than not sees major changes taking place in the economic order and the technology that accompanies it. In the past, one can identify instances such as the demise of feudalism, the move from agricultural dominance to industrialisation, and the development of international financial markets.

At present, there is overwhelming evidence that the economic order of the day is being questioned on whether it still serves the best interest of humanity:

• Present-day capitalism, which puts profit before real production or the creation of jobs/livelihood for people, is increasingly coming under pressure;
• The same goes for consumerism, which depends on perpetual growth, as the fuel that drives the economy;
• A financial system that does not relate to the so-called real (also read productive) economy seems to have been caught up in a cycle in which it stumbles from one crisis to the next;
• The sovereign debt levels of most of the countries that have dominated the world economy for more than a century have become not only unsustainable, but the social unrest developing like measles in the wake of austerity measures indicates that corrective action is going to be extremely difficult; and
• Some analysts are increasingly starting to argue that the heyday of huge international corporations with influence well beyond pure business interests is coming to an end, with the fate of oil giant BP the most spectacular recent example.

Mother Nature

Over the millenniums, Mother Nature has proved the extent to which she can impact on economic and social life. Only months ago, the volcanic eruption in Iceland showed the extent to which the lives of people and economic activity can be disrupted by natural events over which humans have no control.

There could, and still is, argument about mankind’s contribution to present patterns of climate change. That climate change is indeed taking place has become an accepted fact, with only the speed and extent still open to further debate.

It is not too difficult to predict at least some of the fundamental changes that climate change and other natural phenomenon bring to our existence on the planet. To list but a few:

• It is a well-known fact that global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap. Research results due for release this month have some climate change experts predicting that the Arctic summer will become ice-free within a decade – perhaps two. This has not only already triggered a scramble for the natural resources of the region, with mounting tension between the US, Canada, Russia, Denmark and Norway (the five countries with major claims to the region), but it will open a new seaway that will dramatically reduce the importance of the sea route around the Cape;
• As sea levels rise and storms become more unpredictable, one can expect assaults on existing infrastructure in many parts of the world;
• Large-scale displacement of populations due to the impact of climate change is also predicted by many experts. How quickly that can happen was illustrated by the 2005 hurricane Katrina in New Orleans when 90% of the population of southeast Louisiana had to be evacuated. Five years later, many of them still have not returned; and
• As weather patterns change, food security in many parts of the world is being threatened from this source, among others.

New energy dispensation

In the Intelligence Bulletin of 22 June, we already reported about the impact of declining oil reserves and the impact on how we organise our lives and economic activities of a world weaned off oil.

The oil imperative plus the pressure of lessening the human contribution to global warming is already starting to change the energy supply mix in many countries in the world. It is, however, opening up new business opportunities and new innovation.

As reported in last week’s edition of the Intelligence Bulletin, the drive toward a green economy is likely to be a factor in moving the world in the direction of a new era, but it is unlikely to become a universally accepted goal in itself soon.

Scramble for resources

The competition for and struggle for control over the natural resources of the world has, over the millenniums, played a key role in shaping history. In the period since World War 2, international institutions such as the UN and the development of globalisation with its network of interdependence, combined with the so-called liberalisation of markets, have served the world well in keeping relatively free from conflicts over resources.

It has to be conceded, however, that this statement does not hold fully true for oil and some of the wars in which America involved itself over the last 50 years or so.

Many decades of overexploitation-driven unbridled global population growth and rampant consumerism have brought under increasing pressure the known reserves of minerals and other natural resources such as usable water.

Some of the results of this include:

• Increased pressure on often highly sensitive conservation areas worldwide, among others triggering a scramble for control over the last vast untapped reservoir of mineral resources on the planet – Antarctica. While we already referred above to developments around the arctic North Pole, the conflict potential of this competition should not be underestimated;
• Natural conservation areas worldwide, including ecologically sensitive reserves, are increasingly becoming the target of companies seeking exploration rights – something that has become a regular subject in news reports in South Africa;
• There is mounting evidence that the tensions building up around Iran - which sees the US pitched against not only Russia but also established allies such as Turkey and Brazil - are not only about the possibility of Iran developing nuclear armaments; and
• It is not only mineral resources that hold increasing conflict potential. While the world is starting to run out of fresh water resources, the potential of conflict over this resource in Africa and elsewhere in the world is increasing.

This article does not pretend to have presented a full list of all the factors that constitute the epoch in which we live and that will shape the next era in human history. It is hoped that it does do enough to help bring about some serious thought and discussion around the subject.

As we examine the various elements in articles to come, more factors are sure to be added and some insights gained.

Piet Coetzer