The risks of oil are fast catching up with its benefits

"The tragedy unfolding on our coast is the most painful and powerful reminder yet that the time to embrace a clean energy future is now," said United States President Barack Obama last week when addressing his nation on the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. While the disaster has globally put the challenge of developing a new energy regime squarely back on the public agenda, it remains dangerously one dimensional – belying the complexity of the full challenge facing humanity to wean itself off an all-consuming dependency on fossil fuels across the full spectrum of its modern existence.

Probably based more on instinct than on cold reasoning, in addressing one of the most basic elements of the collective American psyche, one of the central themes in Obama’s speech focused on the issue of national security – pointing out that the US consumes 20% of the world’s oil while it holds less than 2% of the world’s reserves.

In this regard, the president implicitly argued that the risks associated with oil dependency are starting to outweigh the benefits derived from this ancient natural resource. Holistically, however, the focus remained almost exclusively on the issue of energy.

This energy fixation and the way in which the dependence on fossil fuels impacts on the environment seem to single-mindedly dominate the debate and discussion on fossil fuels across the globe.

Fear to confront full oil reality

It is almost as if humanity as a whole fears to confront the full implications of, or is in denial about, the reality that the end of the age of a fossil fuel-dominated civilisation is finally approaching.

Fact is that an energy regime based on an easy to exploit, highly mobile and relatively cheap resource is but one - and probably the smallest - element of the fossil fuel age. The real and deeper dependence is on the byproducts of oil, and to a lesser extent coal.

There is just about nothing that modern man does, consumes or even aspires to in his/her daily life which does not involve a byproduct of the fossil fuel industry in one form or another. Probably the most vital of all uses is to make the chemicals that are the basis for modern agriculture.

According to consulting geologist Walter Youngquist, “Most people have no idea of the tremendous number of common items produced from crude oil. Many people associate gasoline or diesel fuel with crude oil, but not the huge number of products that are used every day. The items produced from crude oil are astounding and number in the thousands. Scientists have identified at least 500 000 different uses of oil."

Among the everyday products as we know them, and which are directly related to the petrochemical industry, count saccharine (artificial sweetener), aspirin, hair colouring, heart valves, crayons, parachutes, telephones, bras, transparent tape, antiseptics, purses, deodorant, panty hose, air conditioners, shower curtains, floor wax, lipstick, vitamin capsules, antihistamines, golf balls, glycerin, trash bags, ink of all types, wax paper, hearing aids, compact discs, bandages, toilet seats, perfume and toothpaste.

Oil’s last hope under threat

Bruce Thomson, moderator of the RunningOnEmpty forum, probably overstated his case -  or miscalculated - when about 10 years ago, he predicted in an article under the heading “The Oil Crash and You” that “massive disruptions to transportation and the economy are expected around 2010 when the final peak of production of all petroleum liquids (globally) is followed by decline.”

What probably impacted his calculations were the discoveries since his article of massive deep-sea sources of oil in the Gulf of Mexico. The discovery had crude oil refinery companies projecting its potential output to be well over 15 billion barrels. The projections probably had a much greater impact than the actual discovery itself, and seem to have encouraged continued crude oil dependency in the midst of a universal push for alternative fuel sources.

The new discovery appeared promising in meeting human needs for oil consumption. However, even at the time, certain analysts warned that when they do the math, they conclude that the new discovery, while significant, is a somewhat useless find - in the long run. Now, even that source is under serious threat.

Referring to the byproduct aspect of oil dependency, analysts at the time also warned that “we may have backed ourselves in a catch-22 situation for generations to come”, as time is running out to develop sufficient alternative energy sources in good time and find ways to deal with the “byproduct issue”.

Energy efficiency

Boosting efficiency with readily available technology could reduce US energy use at least 30% over the next 20 years, according to David Goldstein, author of Invisible Energy: Strategies to Rescue the Economy and Save the Planet.

Such a reduction represents more than the total energy delivered by any single source today, whether coal, petroleum or gas, says Goldstein, who is the energy programme co-director for the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.

While there is no doubt that energy efficiency can and will make an impact in buying humanity some time to adapt to a post-petroleum age, on its own it will provide a solution per se.

It is also a subject that easily gets bogged down in the politics of the day, as is well illustrated by a 2008 survey in the US which showed that in the face of rising gas and fuel prices, within months more Americans moved to give higher priority to more energy exploration, rather than more conservation. To them, developing new sources of energy rather than protecting the environment was then the more important national priority; and for more than 50% of them it was acceptable to drill for oil in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, creating the environment in which the Gulf of Mexico disaster was an accident waiting to happen.

Without signs that a more holistic approach would be in the offing soon to address the oil addiction, it is not easy to find arguments with which to meet the doomsayers.

Next week, we will take a look at the prospects for the development of a truly “green economy”. - Piet Coetzer, editor