Signs of a changing world

We do not refer to an “Israeli attack” but rather a "confrontation" – reason being that when the flotilla left the shores of Turkey, it was clearly aimed at confronting the Israeli blockade to cause, for Israel, an internationally embarrassing incident. The Israeli military, in a shockingly naïve way, obliged and lost the real battle – the one of propaganda;

We do not refer to “peaceful humanitarian workers/volunteers” but rather to "militant protesters or activists" – reason being that peaceful humanitarian workers do not arm themselves with iron rods and knives and do not attack security forces. Interestingly, two Israeli soldiers ended up in hospital with gunshot wounds. In fact, there is no evidence of any humanitarian crisis of whichever nature in Gaza.

On paper, Israel had all the right to even sink the ships within the bounds of international law. Fortunately they did not because, law or no law, that would have been really stupid.

For the sake of the record, it should also be mentioned that the blockade of Gaza is not an exclusively Israeli affair. Egypt is also maintaining a blockade along its border with Gaza to avoid it being stocked with weapons, while it is controlled by Hamas – which was declared a terror organisation by the United States and, two years ago, declared war against Israel.

It is also becoming increasingly clear that the activists had at least the tacit support of Turkey’s ruling political party. The well-funded Foundation of Humanitarian Relief (IHH) bought the Mavi Marmara – the lead ship in the flotilla on which the confrontation took place – from a Turkish state-owned company for $1.25 million.

It remains to be seen if the already tremendously strained working relationship between Turkey and Israel will survive the incident. There is even a possibility that the incident was engineered to assist Turkey to redefine that relationship, while it is becoming ever clearer that there are Turkish ambitions to become the dominant regional power in the Middle East.

While Turkey still has ambitions to become a member of the European Union, as is always the case in the Middle East, its position is extremely complicated. It should also be remembered that Turkey dominated the region from the 1450s until the 1020s.

As one of the 20 largest economies in the world, Turkey is progressively strengthening its relationships with other emerging economies, notably with Brazil, with which South Africa also has ever expanding mutual interests. Iran also comes into play in the Turkey/Brazil relationship, with an enriched uranium exchange deal having been agreed upon between the three countries in May this year.

These developments are also increasingly redefining America’s influence in the region. A possible break between its two key allies in the region, Turkey and Israel, can complicate matters considerably for the Barack Obama administration's peace ambitions in the Middle East.

It is clear that after having been strategic partners for six decades, Turkey and the US now seem to becoming strategic competitors, particularly in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.