Africa’s rivers of troubled waters

Not too long ago, anyone predicting that there might come a day when countries might be prepared to go to war over natural resources such as water, energy or food were considered alarmists or even worse, lunatics - and more often than not, ridiculed. The idea was considered excellent for sci-fi literature, and the older among us will probably still remember the legendary Charlton Heston in the futuristic movie Soylent Green; and Kevin Costner in Waterworld, arguably one of the biggest Hollywood flops ever. In Africa and elsewhere, the picture is fast changing.

Over the last couple of years, things have changed dramatically and science fiction has become reality. Conflict, and possibly war over water, energy and even food, does not seem that far-fetched anymore. Food riots across the globe have already become a common occurrence.

Africa has also lately become the victim of a second scramble. A growing number of foreign governments and multinationals are zooming in on what is considered the last opportunity to get access to large swathes of fertile arable land to produce food for growing populations and for making large sums of money. There is a growing belief that food shares in the near future will become the most valuable shares on the stock market.

Climate change (although the jury is still out regarding its ultimate effect), shrinking ice caps in the poles, diminishing glaciers in the Himalayas, Kilimanjaro’s ever dwindling ice crater and Lake Chad’s receding shorelines have one alarming message – water is rapidly becoming a scarce commodity.

Adding the constant population growth and the many consequences thereof, including an increased demand on agriculture to provide food and the pressure it places on water as a non-renewable resource, and the message is clear – water can become vital to a country’s national security. Without adequate resources, a water-scarce country is in serious trouble.

It is this realisation that has compelled four African countries, at the source of the Nile, to set up a commission to recommend the future management of the world’s longest river that runs through nine countries with a combined population of 400 million.

The aim is to renegotiate historic colonial-era treaties that allow Egypt and Sudan the lion’s share - 90% - of the Nile’s water, and empowers Egypt with the right to exercise a veto on any large-scale development projects on the Nile which could affect the level and flow of the river.

Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania - with the support of Kenya and Burundi - consider this arrangement as unjust. Their demands on the water of the Nile have changed and these countries are in dire need of using the river to generate hydropower and irrigation, following persistent drought that has hit many of them, leaving millions of their citizens on the verge of starvation.

Frustrated by Egypt and Sudan’s non-cooperation in renegotiating a new, more accommodating arrangement, some of these countries recently signed an agreement known as the Nile Basin Co-operative Framework in the Ugandan capital Entebbe to allow experts to determine how much water from the Nile each country would be entitled to.

Egypt and Sudan dismissed the Framework agreement, expressing fear that their water supply would be severely reduced with the adoption of the agreement.

Egypt depends on the Nile for almost all of its water and regards the river as a national security issue and insists that its “historic water rights” should be protected in any new agreement. In a counter argument, Egypt claims that the countries demanding a new set of rules have other sources of water and should exploit that rather than try and change existing agreements.

The seriousness with which Egypt is treating this perceived danger to its only water resource manifests in a warning from its foreign minister that Egypt will introduce legal action should the Entebbe agreement be ratified.

Egypt also appears to be trying to pre-empt potential funding from abroad for planned upstream projects plans. President Hosni Mubarak is reportedly heading to Italy to lobby against any Italian investments on Nile projects, particularly in Ethiopia.

In a similar trend, six countries in southern Africa namely Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania, Mozambique, Namibia and Angola – which can benefit from tapping into the Zambezi River – are facing a hard time persuading Zambia to sign and ratify the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) Protocol.

Since 2004, Zambia has refused to sign and ratify the Protocol on the basis that 75% of the Zambezi River basin is in Zambia, and it also contributes 42% of Zambezi River water. Zambia wants those aspects to be captured and factored in when it comes to water abstraction from the Zambezi River, something not currently considered in the present standing protocol.

Imitating Egypt and Sudan, the Zambian government shares the view that the water of the Zambezi is not only an indispensable asset, but control is imperative to preserve and protect its national interest and security.

The apparent unwillingness of both Egypt and Zambia to relinquish some of their control over a crucial water source and share it with other dependants is a strong signal of what is to be expected internationally in the future. As the demand for shrinking natural resources such as water and energy increases, the competition between countries for their share will increase exponentially - even threatening good neighbourly relations.