Are natural disasters on the increase?

A devastating series of earthquakes which occurred around the world since the beginning of this year, killing hundreds of thousands of people, and the eerie impact on global aviation of a dust cloud caused by a volcanic eruption in Iceland have generated panic and speculation that there has been a dramatic increase in such natural disasters. The question on everyone’s mind is: what is going on?

Some religious organisations and their devotees seem to think there has been a definite increase and that it is related to Biblical prophesies of the end times. Astrologers and conspiracy theorists also believe there has been an increase. The mainstream and alternative media, bloggers, websites and other commentators around the world are frantically debating what they believe to be a worrying increase in these disasters. Many have linked it to the effects of global warming and the damage man is doing to Mother Earth.

However, scientists have poured cold water on all of this, saying there has not been an increase in the number of earthquakes, only a worsening in their impact.

On the other hand, there has been a definite increase in climate-related disasters (which exclude earthquakes), yet despite strong suspicions, there is no scientific certainty whether this is being caused by climate change or not.

Scientists at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) office and other such organisations are unanimous in their opinion that there has been no increase or any signs of unusually high earthquake activity in 2010.

The figure so far for this year is nowhere out of the ordinary.

Impact of location

It seems, however, that the earthquakes this year struck in areas of high population and infrastructure density and low defences against such disasters. A case in point is Haiti, thus magnifying the death toll and destruction. Because of the huge devastation, media coverage was higher than normal.

Together, these factors created a false impression that there has been an increase in the actual number of disasters.

In the 10 years between 2000 and 2009, some 471 012 people were killed by earthquakes, or 47 101 on average per year. In the first four months of this year, the 224 710 who have died in earthquakes already far exceed the annual average of the preceding 10 years. This would equate to one-eighth of the entire population of a country such as Namibia having been wiped out.

It is this dramatic increase in the death toll from earthquakes which may have led to assumptions of an increase in these phenomena.

That there may be a link between the recent earthquakes and the volcanic eruption in Iceland also seems likely. Already when Charles Darwin visited Chile in 1835 on board the HMS Beagle and experienced the great Chilean earthquake coupled to a tsunami and three volcanic eruptions and connected earthquakes, volcanoes and vertical movements of the Earth’s crust, he said that these occurred over and over many thousands of years.

Climate-based disasters?

But the growth in disasters does not only refer to earthquakes. The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters said a growth in climate-related disasters, which exclude earthquakes, is particularly significant in coastal areas around the globe where the strongest population growth is located and where it is accompanied by greater exposure to floods, cyclones and tidal waves.

The centre says its statistics reveal an exponential increase in disasters. However, the jury is still out on the assumed link between increasing natural disasters and climate change.

Back in March 2007, the secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization Michel Jarraud warned that global warming was likely to cause an increase in tidal waves, floods, cyclones and hurricanes.

But in January this year, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was heavily criticised by scientists for wrongly linking global warming to an increase in the number and severity of natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods.

The UN had apparently been basing its claims on an unpublished report that had not been subjected to the usual scientific scrutiny. It also ignored warnings that the evidence supporting a link between global warming and increasing natural disasters was not very strong. (See full report)

Religious take on disasters

Religious commentators, on the other hand, seem to share no such qualms. A search of news sites and blogs on the Web shows many such commentators relating the apparent increase in natural disasters to Biblical warnings about the end times.

Their ‘proof’ is the statements attributed to Old Testament prophets such as Daniel in Daniel 12:1 or Jesus in Matthew 24:3-8 or the apocalyptic predictions in the Book of Revelation. These commentators certainly believe there has been an increase in disasters.

Conspiracy theorists, such as to be found at Abovetopsecret.com, also report a dramatic increase in earthquakes without substantiating evidence.

Astrologers, too, are getting in on the act, with American John Hogue, for example, predicting “one of the most significant strings of natural disasters packed into one 12-month period in living memory” for 2010.

However, one astrologist who got it completely wrong is Asish Kumar Das of Astrocopia.com, who predicted a great reduction in earthquake frequency in the first two months of 2010!

How prepared are we?

While South Africa has experienced few earthquakes ranging from very minor to more serious in the past, it seems the Western Cape is particularly vulnerable. Cape Town’s Milnerton, Table View and Melkbosstrand suburbs straddle a major fault line known as the Milnerton Fault. Scientists believe this fault is due for a significant event once again, the last major earthquake here, registering an estimated 6.5 on the Richter scale, having occurred 200 years ago on 4 December 1809.

The question is: are we in South Africa prepared for any such eventuality?

Disaster management in South Africa underwent a significant change with the implementation of the Disaster Management Act of 2002 and the National Disaster Management Framework (South Africa, 2005). It placed South Africa at the forefront of a global paradigm shift from a purely response-oriented approach to disaster management to a more proactive approach, says the South African National Disaster Management Centre.

A network of disaster management centres was to be set up in all municipalities, provinces and at national level.

In October last year, however, the official opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), said disaster management planning required urgent attention, adding that one province and 18 local governments did not have statutory mandated disaster management centres, while 43 municipalities – including Johannesburg – lacked proper plans. In November last year, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe said that a report had shown a need for improvement.

In April this year, the Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs announced it was currently testing its 2010 Disaster Management Plan in partnership with the National Disaster Management Centre.

Following a Cabinet meeting, a statement was released, saying that exercises are being conducted to verify the effectiveness of the plans. This has to be concluded before the 2010 Fifa Soccer World Cup begins in June.

(For full report click here)