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Is the sun setting over Copenhagen?
As the global negotiations at ministerial level on climate change over the past few days reach their crescendo in Copenhagen, it has become ever clearer that an agreement among the major economies will be crucial to determine the success of the post-Kyoto multilateral treaty. But the summit appears to be headed for a deadlock as the rich developed countries and emerging economies failed to settle the main question of how to share the burden of cutting emissions to a safe level.
For South Africa and the rest of the continent, the stakes are high. The United Nations has identified 49 countries as being least developed and equipped to deal with the impact of climate change. Of these, 33 are in Africa.
By 2020, it is projected that between 75 million and 250 million people in Africa will be exposed to water stress and, in some instances, agricultural yields from rain-fed crops would be reduced by as much as 50%.
Over the past weekend, the extent of the gridlock was exposed by the publication of two draft agreements, neither of which contained clear numbers or policy on any of the most contentious issues, even after two years of negotiations.
Stakeholders, which include global companies, are aware that there is much more at play than a concern for the planet’s health. Whatever decisions are reached in Copenhagen, climate change will likely drive the global energy revolution, and businesses would want to get into technologies that could shift the world economy. For that to happen, they require clear and certain goals to emerge from the summit.
Bernarditas de Castro Muller, the co-ordinator of the G77 group of developing nations and China, told journalists from Asia and Africa via chat that developing countries at the summit are united in their position for the full implementation of a legally binding treaty on climate change "that has defined principles and responsibilities for developed and developing countries."
George Soros, chairperson of the massive Soros Fund Management and founder of the Open Society Institute, said over the weekend at a media conference in Copenhagen that the gap between developed countries and developing countries over financing climate change for developing countries would probably wreck the talks at the summit.
He suggested the generation of $100 billion via International Monetary Fund special drawing rights (SDR) for climate relief. That is, developed countries should lend the SDR for 25 years in a special green fund serving the developing world.
At its core, the climate negotiations in Copenhagen are all about the money: how much rich nations will commit to developing nations to adapt to climate change and to jump-start low-carbon economies.
But, the US is unlikely to disclose at the Copenhagen climate talks how much it is willing to contribute to developing countries to help them cope with the long-term effects of global warming, said an official close to the talks. Domestic political and constitutional realities would make it just about impossible for US President Barack Obama to commit to specific fiscal contributions.
Obama, along with more than 100 other world leaders, are set to be in Copenhagen by Friday, 18 December – the final day of the two-week meeting.
While the US probably will not put forth how much in long-term aid it may pay, the world’s second biggest greenhouse-gas polluter behind China may sign on to an agreement that includes a combined long-term financial goal for industrialised countries to pay to the developing world.
One of the greatest challenges in Copenhagen proves to be agreement on how emission cuts will be verified – a problem that is not unique to the developed world.
Verifying voluntary emission cuts “would be very intrusive,” said India’s Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh in a briefing last week. The US does not allow other nations to inspect its biological weapons, he said.
China also refuses to have its voluntary reductions of carbon emission per unit of economic growth verified by international bodies. “It’s a matter of principle,” said its Vice Foreign Minister, He Yafei.
If Copenhagen does, however, succeed in jump-starting low-carbon economies, solar energy, wind power, hydropower schemes and bioenergy could become an engine for economic and social development in all African countries, according to the World Energy Council.
